Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician

PhD Statistics. Statistician at Ipsos Public Affairs. Fan of polls, politics, policy, and Bayesian statistics. Queen of typos. My opinions are my own.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

My team at @ipsospa is hiring a senior statistician. https://t.co/8M20XiKzGD

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

Trump has an advantage in NC but you shouldn’t call a swing state until you are 99% certain and we are not there yet. The NYT 80% chance feels about right.

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Decision Desk HQ projects Donald J. Trump wins the Presidential election in North Carolina.

#DecisionMade: 9:22 PM EDT

Follow live results here:
https://t.co/PZocSAoy3P

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

I feel like TX is going to get called for Trump soon after the final polls close in 10 minutes. Senate might take a little longer.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

@Thorongil16 Tarrant county is weird though as someone who grew up there. It’s not very homogeneous on a precinct level. Once it gets closer to 90% it might be more clear.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

If I start chanting “live model” will WaPo’s turn on faster?

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

Time to get on my Texas soap box. The big counties in Texas can sometimes count fast. There are a lot of rural votes that can take a while.

Also Tarrant county is not a bellwether and I will die on that hill.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

Also you have to wait for the right counties to complete. Votes are not counted randomly and you have to know what you are doing to project a winner based on a partial count.

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

Friends. Please. Do not post half-completed counties and then say "do not extrapolate" unless you know how e-day/early votes will split, which none of you know yet.

This is just going to mislead 95% of the audience the tweets will reach. Wait for counties to complete.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

TV is on, iPad is ready to check results and iPhone is ready to tweet. Baby will dictate how late we stay up but if she is going to keep me up at least I have results to pass the time. Votes are not counted randomly though so the winners and margins can change.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

@AlissaStollwerk @SteveKornacki @MSNBC My 4 month old will be “watching” tonight but not by choice. I hope she will one day ask to watch it with me lol.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

@rnishimura Congratulations!

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

I think overall anything can basically happen on Tuesday but I don’t think the polls will underestimate Trump at 2016 or 2020 levels. That would suggest a Trump landslide and will Trump has a shot at winning I doubt he will win the popular vote by multiple points.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

@rnishimura @jon_m_rob Correct and it probably is off. The question is would education weighting taken it to like Trump +1 or like Trump +10. I’ll be shocked if Harris wins Iowa let alone by multiple percentage points.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

https://t.co/lIFaNhoy8a

The last Selzer Iowa poll is surprising. The last 2020 Selzer poll was very accurate but polling can be random. I still think the race is very close and could go either way.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

Baby is still tiny but growing well and I’m back to work. This is not her “real” first Halloween costume but this is practically a tradition at this point. I’ll be live tweeting election night / week.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

Presenting the third year of this dumb and niche costume with a new member. Presenting
Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP)
Multilevel Regression with Synthetic Poststratification
And Poststratification

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

Hurricane Milton is producing a significant tornado outbreak across Florida today, with a strong tornado reported near Fort Myers moments ago.

50 Tornado Warnings have already been issued today.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

In non-election news, I had my baby Hannah on 7/6 early. She is a little girl at 4 lb 10 oz and is spending some time in the NICU to catch up on growth but we are hoping she can come home soon. I’m recovering at home and visiting her every day.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

I’m on maternity leave. I’m going to be taking a break from social media as well. I’ll be induced the first week of July and and spending the few next weeks off to control my blood pressure and help baby girl grow.

[Brittany Alexander PhD Statistician @balexanderstats]

The whole financial influencer culture and meme stock phenomenon is intriguing to me. It seems like we need a better balance of free speech vs market manipulation or financial advice.
https://t.co/6GqvR011vF