Jonathan Robinson

Progressive empiricist. ex-@Catalist_US. R's R’s Husband + J&D's Dad. @benj_robinson's twin. Pro-growth (sub)urban empiricist Democrat. OH is family — MD is 🏡.

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

Gotta figure out a way to add "lesser well-known data analyst (who I've occasionally corresponded with and usually learn from, though not this time)" to my bio

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

Useful note from a long-time climate policy advocate on how the Warren political operation worked in the 2020 era

[Julian Brave NoiseCat @jnoisecat]

@avizvizenilman At a certain point it became a situation where if you had their ear you could get her to put out yet another proposal that included your particular pet policy innovation

[David Slifka 🇺🇸 @davidslifka]

Smart companies are now tweaking their web sites for prospective customers’ agents.

Non-profits should start doing the same for funders’ agents.

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

Always read @EricLevitz

[Eric Levitz @EricLevitz]

The good news: Democrats are now one presidential win from getting to govern.

The bad news: Their top 3 economic goals may be incompatible with each other.

To prepare a viable governing agenda, the party must grapple with the tensions between its aims
https://t.co/DVCBzbsZWD

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

If I can become Randy Villegas respecter, then you can marvel at and appreciate Josh Shapiro's electoral run in Pennsylvania

[Anthony Dabbundo @AnthonyDabbundo]

if you “hate” a dem swing state governor who was re-elected by 20+ points, you’re not acting like a political strategist, but more like an ideologue

[Jeremiah Johnson 🌐 @JeremiahDJohns]

If you've been offered $$$ to post about BAAJA, send me a DM

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

.@ahall_research & @danmthomp 1.0 (pre-revisiting) vindicated

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Michigan had some of the country's strongest GOP base turnout relative to 2024, also helping explain Benson's weaker showing. Full MS and SC data are pending, but GOP turnout looks weak in both. Fox News misreading the U.S. Senate battleground probably cost Republicans.

[Tom Lee @tjl]

This is not how I want our city to run but after 14 years of “study” what other conclusion can be drawn? The playbook run by Empower, the i81 gifting shops, developers facing DOB lying about inspections…

The message, over and over: following the rules is for suckers

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

@toritaylor @ASDem A team of rivals

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

Sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction

[Noah Goldberg @Noah__Goldberg]

A mystery pie appeared last week behind council chambers after Raman won.

On it, in icing, someone had written “humble.”

That’s what Raman’s colleagues — all of whom endorsed Bass — were metaphorically eating Tuesday when Raman returned to council

https://t.co/3ca8r5lvZ3

[Franklin Leonard @franklinleonard]

Madam Mayor-Elect Nithya Raman!

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

@deepnhearttx @LeticiaForTX9 I’m aware of her 2022 race!

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

My most intriguing race of the cycle was one that I wasn't even following on Tuesday: @LeticiaForTX9. Outraised 13:1, R IE's outspent D's by 8:1...& put up one of the strongest overperformances in the country (18pp better than Harris, ~4pp better than Talarico). Remember the name

[Erin Covey @ercovey]

the biggest swings left were in majority Hispanic TX districts this cycle:

TX-28 (Cuellar): +47 pts
TX-15 (Pulido): +43 pts
TX-09 (Leticia Gutierrez): +35 pts
TX-29 (Garcia): +30 pts

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

@daschloz @jnoisecat Here for this!

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

Good ex. of this CW in academia in the NYT right before the election. "Calcification" means you can't have a big wave

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

.@Nate_Cohn w/ a persuasive critique of mostly academic + foundation-world views of political polarization getting blown up last Tuesday

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

.@Nate_Cohn w/ a persuasive critique of mostly academic + foundation-world views of political polarization getting blown up last Tuesday

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

New pod: THE TRUMP DECADE ENDS

2024 discredited the Democratic establishment. 2026 has discredited MAGA. The next election will be a head-to-head between two currently headless parties that have an opportunity to define themselves for the next generation.

Plus @Nate_Cohn on:
- the myth of the death of the swing voter
- the myth of the Trump racial realignment
- the limits of money in politics
- studying 1974 and 2006 to understand what might come after a midterm wipeout like this
- what makes the Times-Siena poll so accurate
- how The Needle became our election night god

https://t.co/U5CqJVtMl9

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

Very glad she won, but Gina Hinojosa maybe a rare example of a red state Dem who I think is genuinely much too conservative on the merits.

https://t.co/c35xpBeXqa

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

Ballot measure results are more correlated w/ partisanship than what I think survey results about public opinion among voters would imply.

[Tom Wood @thomasjwood]

The futile search for heterogeneity is especially apparent when we compare county votes for ballot measures, many of which are *specifically designed* to cross pressure partisan subgroups.

Even there, partisanship is basically the story!

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

We must learn how to harness the undeniable youth appeal of Roy Cooper’s vertical video strategy

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

@arpitrage It is pretty funny that they recommend Vanguard specifically

[Jonathan Robinson @jon_m_rob]

@trowaman @LeticiaForTX9 Is this a reference to the billboards?

[Carter Kalchik @carterkalchik]

Found this in political direct mail this cycle as well. Huge increase from 2024 (where we found very little AI-assisted writing) and it's used the most the further down the ballot you go -- 1 in 5 mailers for local races had detectable AI writing (using Pangram).