It’s ironic these attacks are happening now right as the exchange is hitting escape velocity on the volume and OI S-curve, not to mention the Tech initiatives so close to commercialization.
Watching what you and the Tech/Exchange teams have been able to build and achieve over the past 7 years has been absolutely amazing—MAS licenses for RMO/ACH, building and launching Abaxx Exchange and Clearinghouse, launching over 15 contracts in various verticals, onboarding multiple global FCMs and a plethora of trading firms around the world, building liquidity to over 15k ADV, and OI to nearly 2k ADV (and a carbon credit spinco in their for good measure!).
The incredible thing though is that the master plan where Tech could become the go to source for digital asset tokenization in finance and commodities hasn’t even been valued yet.
I can’t wait to see the market finally appreciate that Abaxx in many ways built a regulated commodity futures exchange & clearinghouse in order to maximize the potential use cases for 🆔 ++ via MarketOS, SPOT, Abaxx Sign/Abaxx Drive & Abaxx Messenger.
Long story short, any investor who has traveled the dune buggy path with Abaxx has rode the volatility of stock price, and seen the amazing things the Abaxx team can accomplish. No hit job short report will ever persuade us otherwise. Keep building Abaxx Team!
The other observation I have is that FMX and Abaxx come from opposite ends of futures market development, apart from the fundamental differences between financially-settled financial futures vs physically-settled commodity futures marktes.
FMX is sponsored by US bank FCMs to compete in rates against CME and others. As shareholders, these banks are committed to providing client flows from day one. Hence, early volume quality is better and continues to improve. This represents a partial return to the original “mutualized” exchange model, where banks and brokers set up, operate, and gatekeep the exchange while pocketing the fees (and resulting EPS) from the markets they make.
Abaxx’s shareholders and sponsors include:
- Producers/miners: Friedland/Ivanhoe (copper, etc.), Lundin, and Tom Ward/TWL (co-founder of Chesapeake);
- Commodity traders: the founder of a legendary commodity trading house (widely believed to be Mercuria);
- Market infrastructure companies: CBOE (which exited under new management/strategy), Fidelity (via the Johnson family office), and a “world-leading US global market infrastructure company” (that took a 5% stake in a private placement about a year ago).
Notably, there are no FCMs among the shareholders. Abaxx’s model is a direct threat to both FCMs and incumbent exchanges. FCMs are being dragged into onboarding only by customer pressure from commodity traders, miners, and others.
Why? Because the miners, traders, and infrastructure players want things that FCMs and CME/ICE currently can’t or won’t deliver:
- Graded commodities: @robert_ivanhoe wants a “green copper” price (at a discount) for the lower-CO₂ output from his mines in the Congo compared with Codelco and others. Abaxx already lists carbon credit futures and will list a copper contract once the technology is ready. Despite plenty of talk about green copper pricing, no one has delivered it yet. Abaxx is building the market infrastructure to make it possible, unlike CME, LME, or SHFE.
- End-to-end commodity ESG tracking with a digital title to lower collateral costs for producers and physical traders, as well as ExIm financing costs. This is the goal of the Digital Title Pilot with MineHub.
- Lower funding costs: The energy trading complex and commodity traders want a single market where they can post instant collateral against global energy exposures, avoiding episodes like the US$8 billion margin call Mercuria faced on its LNG positions (OTC, TTF, JKM, etc.) when Russia invaded Ukraine. Abaxx is starting with LNG and related wind/solar contracts and is expected to deploy T+0 US$ MMF collateral by year-end.
- Relevance in a tokenized world: The market infrastructure company that took the 5% stake is, in my opinion (with no public hints as to its identity), a global custodian seeking to stay relevant when shares, bonds, MMFs, and commodities become tokenized and sit on someone else’s ledger. MarketOS gives it a way to deploy the technology and remain in business.
- Fidelity’s perspective: Fidelity has been an early adopter of BTC and DeFi technology. Like many serious observers, it recognizes that the “blockchain-first” approach has run into real-world problems: identity, bankruptcy remoteness, legal finality, liquidity fragmentation, privacy, and more. Abaxx’s MarketOS (ID++, FDT, etc.) offers a viable path to tokenized 24/7 trading on TradFi rails. That’s worth getting a foot in the door in case this technology is ultimately adopted by TradFi at scale.
All of this means FCM collateral funding businesses will suffer, and trade finance desks at banks will see margins contract or volumes decline.
How? Producers will be able to post tokenized (MarketOS Full Digital Title) inventories or in-transit cargoes as collateral (1) directly to the exchange, up to contract delivery or (2) to trade finance providers connected to MineHub’s platform. MineHub has announced end-to-end tracking from mine to ship to final processor, complete with ESG data. The next step is tokenizing the shipment via MarketOS’ FDT and running a pilot with a trade finance shop to prove the lower operational and credit risks. MineHub has indicated it is adding a new commodity to its platform that will be tracked all the way to Abaxx futures contract delivery, LNG, we presume!
Banks and FCMs are being dragged in, kicking and screaming to onboarding.
This is why the following developments are so important:
- A global FCM servicing the global energy trading complex (JPM is our guess) is in the process of onboarding, per Abaxx’s 1Q26 call.
- A US bank FCM is conducting due diligence to license MarketOS (likely the same one) to offer clients (e.g., Mercuria) T+0 USD/Gold collateral against Abaxx contracts, per the 1Q26 call. More details are expected in the 2Q26 call in August.
- Three or four additional bank FCMs are onboarding. Last night Abaxx disclosed that the FCM onboarding pipeline now stands at 13 institutions, up from 10 at the 1Q26 call.
- Three Chinese FCMs (precious metal traders, more calendar spreads 😂) are among those 13.
- We should see Chinese and US FCMs come onboard in 3Q (per @JoshCrumb’s recent post).
- Mizuho, the only bank/FCM backer of Abaxx, could onboard by early 4Q (it is a clearing firm but not yet a Clearing Member). Mizuho has the largest LNG infrastructure lending book and a clear need for a liquid LNG market to hedge balance sheet risks.
And yes, Abaxx shareholders (#29ers in the private and public groups) noticed the prevalence of calendar spreads as soon as Gold volumes picked up. They have debated possible counterparties, discussed the role of incentives, tracked the quarterly disclosures, and even asked the company questions about it. I understand this is still new information to most Abaxx shareholders.
The bottom line is that the current state of the trading at Abaxx only reflects the pace of FCM onboarding, which is set to accelerate in the near term. This is why the stock previously traded nearly 100% higher than current levels. Short sellers are currently gifting us an entry point.
I personally welcome @UpslopeCapital’s bona fide research into the company and appreciate the even-handed, clear-headed tone of the analysis. This stands in sharp contrast to the frankly mediocre arguments, outright lies and distortions in @viceroyresearch's ongoing smash-and-grab campaign.
#29ers $ABXX.TO
** NOT investment advice, to your on DD.
Active trading has begun in Abaxx Silver Singapore futures.
Designed for Asia’s industrial silver market, SSP supports price discovery and hedging for physical silver exposure tied to solar, electronics, and advanced manufacturing supply chains.
https://t.co/oEcDxDR1Ex
August is always big months (but so will be September and October and…).
We broke every rule that “a startup should focus on just one thing”, but we set out to reinvent market infrastructure so we worked on 10 hard things at once, an intricate complex machine of managing critical paths of many different products and workstreams. When it all comes together and the puzzle pieces rapidly start snapping into place, that’s when the complexity works with you and not against you (imbedded flywheels).
We should do +1 tonne of #Gold and half a cargo of #LNG in trading volume today on @abaxx_exchange. We got our first calendar month spread-trade today on LNG as well:
GOMV25/X25 spread traded at -0.34$
This is significant, a curve is staring to take form for real LNG, not just pipeline gas or indexed quotes. We are gaining the interest and attention in Asia for this, big time (of course they want real prices for their future baseload fuel, not just what a bank or trader quotes them to net-back to Europe or the U.S. and someone else’s market).
Yes, we were in the upper end of that range on Friday and I believe this coming week will be the first one where we can really throttle the system from multiple pipes for lower latency orders and tighter spreads.
(FYI, one of our main ISVs had a software issue, so lots of clients couldn’t trade these first few weeks, very frustrating, but good to see it wasn’t on the Abaxx core infrastructure side — everyone for weeks were working to solve it….but now all post launch tweaks have been worked through headed into tomorrow)
@stooonkMan @VBigVVV @igor8540 Quick update: step one in full-throttle-market complete (going to push it over a number of days this week). New record volume breaking above that 500lot range and headed towards 1 tonne of gold traded per day