You can chase AI stocks at 10-20x their revenue right now, or you can buy deep value quality assets. It’s really is that simple when you embrace low time preference
Bitcoin and Mungers Rule.
One has to wonder about the “AI is sucking up all the capital” narrative when nearly 8 trillion dollars still sits in money market funds earning a risk‑free yield, while fiat money loses something on the order of 8% of its purchasing power per year. In a market that noisy, the 200‑week Munger Rule is less a tactic than an x‑ray of who actually believes in compounding.
Buy at the upward sloping 200-week moving average.
Yes buy when there is blood in the streets.
But emotions get in the way.
The 200 week MA.
It marks the point where price has already done the damage and narrative has followed it down, where momentum, flows and sentiment have all turned against you, and where long-term value quietly reasserts itself. Narrative follows price.
When you should buy, you will not want to. The same is true of selling ( yes sell parabolic moves).
The excess return is therefore not informational. It is behavioural.
Most investors cannot do it. Emotions get in the way, simple human aversion to loss turn volatility into something to be avoided rather than harvested.
I call it the Munger Rule.
Have a nice day.
Good evening.
I’m getting a lot of questions about whether my conviction has been impaired or my thesis has changed about Bitcoin with its recent price weakness. The answer is an emphatic no. Why? Because I like to keep it simple and focus on first principles. While other assets are enjoying the warmth of the hot ball of money, Bitcoin will simply continue to reflect the debasement of all government sponsored currencies over the long run. Nothing more. Nothing less. Hope this helps.
Have a great night.