Bashir Mohamed Caato

Freelance Journalist | @AJEnglish | @MiddleEastEye | Formerly @BBC

[Daily Mail @DailyMail]

Iran's drones cost $35k to make... but $4m to shoot down: How Tehran can keep launching attacks indefinitely but Western missile supplies are weeks from running out https://t.co/aLw3C9QTdJ

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Iran's Khamenei has been killed, Iranian media say

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/M560ZeKX8L

[Iran International English @IranIntl_En]

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed in Saturday airstrikes, Iran International can confirm.
https://t.co/BhLjqUWk7g

[Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish]

BREAKING: A loud explosion has been reported from the United Arab Emirates Capital, Abu Dhabi, the Reuters news agency has reported.

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/NElCZ3lCBN

[Bashir Mohamed Caato @bashir_caato]

Looks like US military facility in Bahrain is under attack

[Bashir Mohamed Caato @bashir_caato]

NYT

[Bashir Mohamed Caato @bashir_caato]

I see now

[Bashir Mohamed Caato @bashir_caato]

#BREAKING
Israel launches attack on Iran

[Bashir Mohamed Caato @bashir_caato]

This is what Israel airforce put out on Iran attack

[Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish]

BREAKING: Israel has launched a “preventative” attack against Iran, as witnesses say they have heard explosions in Iran’s capital, Tehran, according to the Reuters news agency.

[Mohamed Kheir Omer @mkheirom]

Trump and Abiy: Iran and Eritrea/Tigray
According to the Wall Street Journal, «President Trump is at a crossroads that could define his legacy: He could sign a deal that curbs Iran's nuclear program, or launch a war with hard-to-control consequences for the U.S. and the Middle East.” The same is true of #Ethiopia’s PM Abiy, who is amassing troops to encircle #Tigray and maybe to wage war on #Eritrea and claim the Assab port.

The comparison between Trump’s predicament and Ethiopia’s military posturing can be instructive insofar as both leaders confront adversaries and pursue legacy-defining goals. However, the geopolitical contexts differ fundamentally:

In the U.S.–Iran case, the central issue is nuclear weapons proliferation and regional security involving major world powers with global strategic interests. Trump leads a global superpower with unmatched military reach and complex alliance systems, while Abiy governs a fragile federal state dealing with internal fracturing and limited external support.

Though one cannot compare the USA to Ethiopia or Trump to Prime Minister Abiy, there is some room for analogy. Trump doesn’t like Abiy, claiming that Abiy snatched his Nobel Peace Prize that was meant for him in 2019. Both are amassing troops to fight their adversaries. Both want to be autocrats, above the law in their respective countries. Both want to leave legacies. Both have abandoned their allies. Abiy wants to be remembered for bringing Ethiopia access to the sea, “making Ethiopia great again,”

But Abiy doesn’t have the options that Trump has. Trump’s decapitating war on Iran may be imminent, but Abiy’s war rhetoric that has been going on for more than two years may remain the same or end up with limited clashes that do not develop into a full-scale war, unless mishaps occur. Yet the dream of having access to the sea will always remain on the agenda until the ‘right’ moment arrives.

Abiy’s troop buildup may be a show of force to his sponsors and adversaries (Eritrea, TPLF, Fano, and OLA), who have more options than Abiy and are already working together to bring his downfall. Abiy is isolated regionally, with backing from the UAE, which is facing backlash from Saudi Arabia and its allies aligned with Eritrea. His army is exhausted, lacks middle-level officers, has a low fighting morale. If a full war breaks out, it will not be short and will have unintended ramifications in the whole region. In Ethiopia’s case, military action could deepen humanitarian suffering and destabilize a volatile region already shaped by years of conflict in #Sudan and Tigray.

[Middle East Eye @MiddleEastEye]

Jordan and Egypt slam US ambassador remarks that Israel can take over all Middle East

Arab states reject 'provocative' and 'absurd' comments by Mike Huckabee in interview with Tucker Carlson

[Middle East Eye @MiddleEastEye]

The former president, who was defeated in Somaliland’s most recent election, is the highest-ranking Somaliland politician so far to publicly call for the disclosure of the agreement with Israel
https://t.co/HiYpqQNKVP

[Middle East Eye @MiddleEastEye]

Ahmed Al-Tuwaijri: Abu Dhabi has acted as “Israel’s Trojan horse” in the region.

Full episode ↓

[Bashir Mohamed Caato @bashir_caato]

@AbdirizakOm The right words, to the right person, in the right place, at the right time. Kudos @AbdirizakOm

[Middle East Eye @MiddleEastEye]

UK and Canadian firms suspend future ties to UAE's DP World after CEO's emails with Epstein

https://t.co/BVlRo9xSfU

[Middle East Eye @MiddleEastEye]

Former Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkey’s presence in Somalia was about preserving unity, not expansion.

Recounting a 2012 London summit, he said the UK lobbied African and European diplomats to recognise Somaliland as a separate state, an effort he personally blocked.

“We are bringing stability to Somalia. You are trying to divide it,” Davutoglu told then British foreign secretary William Hague, adding that if the UK was so focused on recognising a state, “first recognise the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, then we can talk about Somaliland.”

He said Turkey later brought Somali and Somaliland leaders together in Ankara to establish unity, underlining his belief that Turkey’s engagement was about keeping Somalia intact.

[Abdirashid Hashi @AnalystSomalia]

Dear Dr. Rashid,

Do you think Tigray should secede from Ethiopia, taking into account how you felt about the last war? Which you classified as clear case of genocide.

And while you’re at it, would you recommend that, if Tigray goes, Somalia should retake the oil-rich Somali Region?

And since, in an earlier post, you said Somalia is about fear while the secessionist northern province (S’land) is about hope, how would you rate #fear and #hope in Ethiopia and in Tigray?

Point being: ma anaga uun baad naga adagtahay?

Even in your own country, Kenya, you are not nearly this dissecting.

[Bashir Mohamed Caato @bashir_caato]

@RAbdiAnalyst You have no standing to advise on what serves Somalia’s interests.

[Bashir Mohamed Caato @bashir_caato]

@nivcalderon Glad that you realise the reality now and acknowledge it. Going forward, get your facts right.