Basil Halperin

Assistant professor of economics @UVA;

Past lives: PhD @MITEcon, @Uber, @AQRCapital, @UChicago

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

Introducing the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship:

The economics of AI remains surprisingly understudied. The fellowship aims to help fill that gap, by supporting grad students and early-career researchers with $, data, a conference, and community –

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@Jabaluck https://t.co/9irNuintSV

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

every time someone refers to Metaculus or Manifold as prediction "markets", god kills an arbitrageur

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@besttrousers that's interesting. "driven" in the plot title is perhaps not the best word then

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

slopchart, though i did some sanity checking

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

I think that if you extend Rognlie (2015) to account for 10 more years of data, the central finding doesn't hold up.

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

real labor-share expert @ZMazlish informs me Gutiérrez and Piton (2020) already argues exactly this, see discussion here https://t.co/znQS23EC88

image QT below for archiving purposes

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

every time someone refers to Metaculus or Manifold as prediction "markets", god kills an arbitrageur

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

https://t.co/VnDhyTHlyq collected ~1k matched questions from real-money prediction markets vs. non-market platforms: skin in the game seems to still matter, at least some?

[Robin Hanson @robinhanson]

@bechhof Show me a real $ money market estimate like this.

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

these are relative not absolute brier scores though; and I am somewhat posting this tweet with the hope people will dig through all these charts more carefully and i won't have to 😌

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@GuiveAssadi @trevposts even more caveats on this one perhaps

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

2026 update (=2025 data)

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

And here's customer service reps -- interestingly, the US employment share is down a fair amount since 2022 ( = ChatGPT)

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@GuiveAssadi @trevposts good q, I think it's harder because of classification issues ("programmers" vs. "software developers") but let's see https://t.co/E2xnyxjVVB

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@MaxNadeau_ you have reminded me thanks that I didn't actually post this graph -- *relative* wages -- last time, bc the percentiles are weird object here: "90th percentile translator wages divided by 90th percentile agg wage"

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

caveats as before about using OEWS to measure changes over time
https://t.co/3k3jWK8UbT

[Michele Zanini @MicheleZanini]

@BasilHalperin This page has a good explainer of the limitations (see section F) - hope it helps

https://t.co/prc1LBXvIK

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

relative wages

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@dwarkesh_sp https://t.co/Y8Wnk2XItR

[B2H2 @basilh_2]

7. Andrea Matranga!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@albrgr @michael_nielsen (Which asset prices seem better?)

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@davidshor @albrgr ie moved your timelines, or changed whether you expect AI to raise/lower rates?

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@albrgr makes u think

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@davidshor lmao. im gonna have to take the L on this one

https://t.co/Y8SZA3CroE

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@captgouda24 tfw your historically-informed analogy is historically uninformed

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

"Trying to escape the permanent underclass" is like an Incan trying to save enough money to escape Pizarro, sorry --

Either the political system works (and there is nothing to escape) or you're just screwed ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Jan Kulveit @jankulveit]

The "permanent underclass" meme is primarily bad futurism, where people admit AGI massively changes one domain, but somehow everything else stays roughly 2025. Not impossible, but small slice of futures

[Basil Halperin @BasilHalperin]

@Tim_Hua_ > The Cope Theory of everything
instant banger