Bayesian Lad

I tweet about valuations, stocks, and occasionally Bayesian stats

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

Solid-State Transformers Part 5: $ENPH vs $SEDG vs Others
https://t.co/8ypz7vUDJo
Last week, I discussed what SSTs are trying to solve for and how a few companies are looking to deliver a solution. Today, I want to compare them against each other (1/24)

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

Solid-State Transformers Part 4: New Challenger Meets Incumbents
https://t.co/rLAvXMtC0K
Before comparing the $SEDG design and $ENPH design side-by-side, we need to understand how the current leaders might address SSTs. This thread does that (1/15)

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

$PPSI is almost certainly overheated short-term, but this is just cherry-picking.

On the cash front: they've got $13.6M of cash. That ties out to 10+ quarters of liquidity at current burn rate before considering 0 debt and plenty of assets+property. This isn't a bankruptcy story.

Most of the revenue isn't done from leases. See the attached screen grab for the revenue split

Gross profit and rev growth need to improve, but Prymus is expected to be driver. This of course will likely have fits and starts, but it's far from the only overheated company riding the data center power crunch.

For internal controls, see ITEM 4 in the 10Q. Come to your own conclusions on this risk.

GLTA, and DYOR

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@trading_bishop I added a little more today. Technically at a full weight, but if it hits 100, I would go above a full allocation. Greedy, but content with my position

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

To the other 5 $PLMR investors on here, it took me too long to realize that El Nino fears might be the reason the stock is so suppressed. TBF, it makes sense. If a super El Nino increases west coast flood risk and uncertainty of rains in the heartland, that's 2 $PLMR segments (flood and ag) that could take a hit. I'm conflicted since IMO this is still a compounder in the making trading at a discount, but I don't expect sentiment to change until uncertainty around El Nino fades

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@trading_bishop I agree. I think if they get through the season without any major catastrophes, this could re-rate 50%. Problem is momentum looks bad, and 50% over 6ish months doesn't feel appealing to everyone when semis are doing that each month 😅

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@Larryjamieson_ Reputation still matters. LLMs make enough mistakes and omissions that I'd still value someone I trust. That being said, it's still probably better ROI to get better at using the LLMs

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@BryzonX I agree with respect to short term price action (hard to differentiate from noise). Over a medium term though, my view is that price action tells you whether other investors agree with your thesis

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

$NXT boosting rev and EPS guidance off the back of Prevalon acquisition. Nice little bump to start the morning

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

Trimmed a small amount of $AEHR this morning. Plan is to hold the rest through next earnings unless critical new information comes out

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@ZaStocks I'm very curious to see how these go. I've been long small positions in $MDB and $SNOW for a little while now. Thesis was that consumption-based sw > seat-based. The wrench was that a lot of SAAS cos got more efficient with token cost, which actually reduced rev expectations

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@patienceisking Yeah I get that. I still see upside from my valuations, but not knowing the driver bothers me. I don't want to confuse luck and skill

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

Can't decide if this $PPSI move is a delayed reaction from the Prymus win or some news that hasn't broken yet. Not mad at all, just confused

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@livermore1923 No way this is behind the rally today, right....?

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

Added a little $TRMB earlier. Still not a full position, but 75% of the way there. Mid 50s could be potential technical support. In most recent filing, timeline was given to remediate internal controls. Def risky, but oversold and IMO physical moat isn't being considered

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@ApeStrong1122 Would make my year

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

Trimmed the last of some $ENPH calls today. Had bought them before earnings, watched them dip, and then watched them crush on this recent rally. No idea how far this goes. Still holding all shares

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@SixSigmaCapital I think it's quite informative to pay attention to what isn't working. There are def animal spirits at play, but even still, knowing what isn't working can help explain why the winners are winning

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@invest091 @SixSigmaCapital Will check out. I've got a position in $TRMB I'm trying to decide if I want to add to. Not exactly the same situation, but similar space.

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@invest091 @SixSigmaCapital What are your thoughts on $TYL?

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

If you're an active investor and you're not reviewing your portfolio this way at least quarterly, this is your sign to start

[David Orr @orrdavid]

I've been reviewing what's been going wrong for me since March 1st in the hedge fund. I'm personally in a 20% drawdown (-15% after fees), which is particularly bad for me.

Usually during tough periods it's my short book causing problems. This time it's not. My shorts are only losing me 11% since then, while I have been 165% gross short and the Russell 2000 (best proxy for my short book) is up 9%. Gross adjusted, my shorts should be down 15%. Plus, my shorts run higher beta so really they should be down 20%. So alpha on shorts has actually been strong. The market did go up real fast, so of course I lost a lot, but I still consider this a big victory.

It's the long book where I am getting *killed*. This is so different from past junk meltups.

Stocks like $9022, JR Central who's main asset is the famous Shinkansen that links Tokyo with Nagoya, Kyoto and Osaka. This is one of my big losers. This trades for 7x earnings with solid earnings growth.

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

@vkrm_odrju Trying new things

[Bayesian Lad @bayesian_lad]

https://t.co/3OOHh2NoEP