Jennie $LOKI

$LOKI and $MAX, pending for the moon

[Jennie $LOKI @beikie199]

@LordWilliamUK @Murphychen888 每天就等着你的推了

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

不要企图抓住行情最后的1/8或最初的1/8；
这两个1/8点位，是世上代价最高的1/8！
——杰西·利弗莫尔

想要卖在最高点，买在最低点，是非常危险的心态；

@Murphychen888 分析挺好的，他前两天的推文可以理解为有回调需求，而不是大顶到了；粉丝们的评论 @tj_research Talk君都看不下去。

猜顶绝非易事，
连CZ @cz_binance 和 $BTC 大鲸鱼都说不清顶在哪；

我经历三轮币圈大周期，总结下来，逃顶需要评估的指标有近40个（如下图参考），有一些我一年前分享过；

老福, @FLS_OTC 确定相对顶部，根据逃顶指标左侧止盈部分，右侧破位再止盈剩下的，分批止盈是上策；

Don’t try to catch the final 1/8 or the initial 1/8 of the market movement;
these two 1/8 segments are the most expensive in the world!
— Jesse Livermore

Trying to sell at the very top or buy at the very bottom is an extremely dangerous mindset.

@Murphychen888's tweets received criticism. His tweets from a couple of days ago can be interpreted as suggesting a need for a correction, rather than the arrival of a major peak.

Guessing the top is no easy task.
Even CZ (@cz_binance) and #BTC whales cannot precisely determine where the top lies.

Having experienced three major crypto market cycles, I’ve concluded that identifying a peak requires evaluating nearly 40 indicators (see the chart below).

To determine a relative top, the best strategy is to partially take profit on the left side using peak indicators and gradually take profit on the remaining portion when key levels break on the right side.
Staggered profit-taking is the most prudent approach.

[Jennie $LOKI @beikie199]

@LordWilliamUK 多少人被套牢了 😭

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

粉丝看了一些KOL的观点很焦虑，问我BTC接下来怎么走？

狂人是老KOL了，他的观点总结：1、盘整2-3个月；2、顶部回调30-40%；3、抄底区间他设定在7-8万；

这三点，我都不认可；

1、昨天 $BTC 插针， $ETH 带动山寨大暴跌，符合我置顶帖子中12月初BTC突破10万，12月上旬开始回调的走势预判（附上了11月底的老预测图）

2、BTC回调的深度？
很多事件和宏观数据影响回调的具体目标点位，
(1) 若明天美国11月的CPI符合预期或好于预期（概率70%），则BTC的二浪回调，通过在90K-100K之间的震荡就完成了；
(2) 若CPI爆雷，核心CPI到了0.4%（概率30%），则会让美联储12月不降息概率大增；BTC预期跟随美股回调到87K左右；
狂人的30-40%回调危言耸听了；

3、BTC要调整多久？
12月22日前，大概率结束二浪回调，开启三浪上涨；
(1)美股的情绪和广度已在低位，12月下旬美股也回调的差不多了；
(2)牛市中，#BTC 的回调时间一般1-2周；
Santa Rally将带动美股和比特币上涨，比特币三浪目标价12万；
狂人推断的2-3个月的盘整在年底发生的概率很低，到了2025年Q2才有可能；

4、抄底区间；
若明天CPI利好，则95K-91K，可分批挂单抄底BTC；
若CPI爆雷，则91K-87K，可分批挂单抄底BTC；
买到就是赚到；
狂人说的价格，估计要等半年。

5、更大的回调在何时？
预计在1月20日，Trump就任总统，市场Sell the news；

大家一起来见证，谁的预测是对的，哈哈
@phyrexni 老倪，你说呢？

Some followers are feeling anxious after reading opinions from various KOLs and have asked me about BTC's outlook.

Here’s a summary of a KOL's views as quoted:
BTC will consolidate for 2-3 months.
A top pullback of 30-40%.
The bottom-buying range is set at 70-80K.

I disagree with all three points:

1.BTC's current trend
Yesterday, $BTC had a flash drop, $ETH dragged down altcoins in a major sell-off. This aligns with my pinned post's forecast of BTC breaking above 100K in early December and beginning a pullback in mid-December.
Depth of BTC pullback

2.The exact target for the pullback
depends on various events and macroeconomic data:
(1) If tomorrow’s U.S. November CPI meets or beats expectations (70% probability), BTC's second-wave pullback will complete through a consolidation between 90K-100K.
(2) If CPI surprises on the high side, with core CPI hitting 0.4% (30% probability), it will significantly increase the odds of the Fed not cutting rates in December.
#BTC might follow U.S. equities down to around 87K.
His claim of a 30-40% pullback is overly alarmist.

3.Duration of the BTC pullback
The second-wave pullback is likely to end before December 22, after which the third wave of growth will begin:
(1) Sentiment and market breadth in U.S. stocks are already at a low point. By late December, U.S. equities will have likely finished their correction.
(2) Historically, in bull markets, #BTC pullbacks typically last 1-2 weeks.
A Santa Rally will drive both #SPX and BTC higher, with the third wave targeting 120K.
The KOL's prediction of 2-3 months of consolidation happening this year-end is unlikely; such a scenario may occur in Q2 2025.

4.Bottom-buying range
If tomorrow’s CPI is favorable, the ideal range for BTC bottom-buying is 95K-91K; you can set staggered limit orders to accumulate.
If CPI surprises negatively, the range shifts to 91K-87K for bottom-buying. Either way, buying at these levels is a profit opportunity.
His forecasted price range might only materialize half a year later.

When will the huge pullback occur?
Likely around January 20, when Trump is inaugurated as president—this will trigger a "sell the news" reaction.

Let’s see together whose prediction proves accurate.

[Jennie $LOKI @beikie199]

@LordWilliamUK 谢谢分享

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

Trump胜选，共和党有望横扫，接下来怎么布局加密币和美股？

1.昨天在摇摆州数据出来前，让大家满仓回了之前止盈的25%现货，并在72-74K区间接到了多单；目前盈利中；

2.没有第一手的大选投票情报，就没法跟着赌徒左侧抢跑，这是右侧交易的天然不足，但吃到鱼身也够了；

3.之前带着粉丝们一直重仓拿着的美股 $Coin 和 $Clsk ，今天大暴涨23%-31%，终于熬出头了；

4.Trump大胜，共和党拿下了参议院，众议院目前也领先，有望完成横扫胜利；
没有了国会分裂的掣肘，Trump很多规划的政策可以顺利落地;

5.分别利好利空什么板块？
a.高关税政策：利多美元，利多US10y，利空美债，利空金银及大宗；
b.降税政策预期：提升上市公司eps，利多美股；
c.增产石油政策：利空油价，利好邮轮/航空股；
d.支持银行政策：放空银行业管制，利多 $XLF/ $KRE ；
e.推动降息政策：利好中盘股和小盘股，IWM/ IWR；
f.加密友好政策：利好 #BTC 及加密币概念股
g.利空板块：原油，新能源，中概， 海外制造;

目前，市场全线转向“Trump Trade”，
25年1月20日Trump正式上任前，做多是顺势交易；

6.应该布局投资什么？
a.加密币：
$BTC-川普的上任和预期的政策改善了BTC的潜能；
$SOL-潜在ETF的利好；
$DOGE-马斯克要组建的政府部门；
$ETH-明年Q1的Pectra升级；
仓位不够的粉丝，可以现价建立底仓，然后分批挂单低接；

b.美股：
利好板块的个股或ETF： $TSLA, $Coin, $Clsk , $CCL, $SOXL, $TNA, $DPST;
大涨后会有回踩，没有建仓的粉丝，可以先建立底仓，然后分批挂单低接；

计划在市场情绪高点止盈，或1月20日前止盈；

How to invest Crypto and U.S. Stocks After a Trump Victory and GOP Sweep?

1. Before the swing-state data release, we add back the position which was previously toke profit, and long $BTC in the 72-74K range. in profits now

2. Without firsthand voting information, it’s challenging to take early left-side positions. However, right-side trading is more conservative, and capturing the main upward move is often enough.

3. The stocks we held heavily— $COIN and $CLSK —have surged by 23%-31% today, finally paying off.

4. With a decisive Trump win and GOP taking the Senate and leading the House, this is poised to be a GOP sweep. With no divided Congress, Trump can push forward his policy agenda.

5. Sector Impacts (Positive and Negative):
- **High Tariff Policies**: Bullish for $DXY and the US 10-Year yield, bearish for $TLT, $XAU, and commodities.
- **Tax Cut Policies**: Likely boosts EPS for listed companies, positive $DJI $SPX.
- **Oil Production Policies**: Bearish for oil prices, positive for cruise and airlines.
- **Supportive Bank Policies**: Deregulation in banking is bullish for $XLF and $KRE.
- **Push for Rate Cuts**: Positive for mid- and small-cap stocks, like $IWM and $IWR.
- **Pro-Crypto Policies**: Positive for $BTC and crypto-related stocks.
- **Sectors Likely to Underperform**: Oil, solar energy, Chinese stocks, and overseas manufacturing.

6. Market sentiment is shifting to ‘Trump Trade’. From now until Trump’s official inauguration on January 20, 2025, taking long positions aligns with this trend.

7. Investment Strategy:
- **Crypto**:
- $SOL: Potential ETF approval catalyst.
- $DOGE: Elon Musk's new department D.O.G.E.
- $ETH: Pectra upgrade scheduled for Q1 2025.

- U.S. Stocks:
- $TSLA, $COIN, $CLSK, $CCL, $SOXL, $TNA, $DPST.
Buy the pullbacks, followers who don't have positions can start with a base holding and set staggered limit orders to accumulate on dips.

Plan to take profits at market sentiment peaks or before January 20.

[Jennie $LOKI @beikie199]

@LordWilliamUK 谢谢指导

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

大选后美股风口在哪？大选前后买什么卖什么？

近期美股的关键影响因素，大选、巨头财报、11月1日的就业数据；
#SPX 目前测试MA20，在5768，5670，5630都有支撑，下周可以分批加仓。

一、大选前：
预计下周的Goog，Meta，Amzn财报问题不大，APPL财报预计微弱；
预计下周五的大非农和失业率数据偏好；
若周二AMD的财报利好，则我会盘后第一时间加仓半导体 $SOXL （洗盘充分，伺机而动）;
下周一到周三，我会加仓定投 $META, 这次财报有可能会宣布拆股；

二、大选后：
1、若Trump当选：
他的政策预计是“低利率、低税率、高关税”，利好加密和AI行业及降息利好板块；
大选消息出来后，我会第一时间加仓 $BTC, $Coin, $Clsk, 半导体三倍 $SOXL, 地产 $DHI 和 $TSLA ；
第一时间卖出新能源、中概股。

2、若Harris当选：
她的政策预计是，延续拜登政策+高福利，利好新能源，利空美元；
我会第一时间加仓太阳能 $FSLR, 微软两倍 @MSFU, 半导体 $SOXL ；
第一时间卖出 $TSLA, $Coin, $Clsk, 大减仓数字货币。

三、总结
不论谁当选，都会继续印钞、加大赤字、推动AI等科技创新，这些方向就指向了风口。
不论财报如何，大选后的确定性和Santa Rally将让华尔街交易员加码，11-12月都将是美股最好的月份。

趋吉避凶，顺势而为。

Where Are the Market Opportunities for U.S. Stocks Before and After the Election?

Key Factors Affecting U.S. Stocks in the Near Term are
Election, Earnings Reports of M7, Employment Data on 1st Nov.
$SPX is currently testing the 20-day MA, with support levels at 5768, 5670, and 5630, it could be a good opportunity for phased accumulation next week.

1. Pre-Election Strategy
**Major Earnings**: Expecting solid earnings from GOOG, META, and AMZN next week, with AAPL’s earnings likely to be soft.
**Employment Data**: Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate on Friday are expected to show positive trends.
**Specific Trades**:
If $AMD reports strong earnings on Tuesday, I’ll immediately add $SOXL in after-hours.
Between Monday to Wednesday, I’ll DCA $META. Its earnings call may potentially announce a stock split.

2. Post-Election Strategy
1. If Trump Wins:
- Policy Outlook: Lower interest rates, lower taxes, higher tariffs. Bullish for the crypto and AI sectors as well as rate-sensitive sectors.
- First Moves: I will add $BTC, $COIN, $CLSK, 3X semiconductor ETF $SOXL, real estate $DHI, and $TSLA immediately after the election.
- Sell: New energy and Chinese ADRs.

2. If Harris Wins:
- Policy Outlook: Likely to continue Biden’s policies with high social spending, favorable for new energy and bearish for $DXY.
- First Moves: I will add Solar energy $FSLR, 2X MSFT $MSFU, and 3X semiconductor $SOXL.
- Sell: $TSLA, $COIN, $CLSK, and reduce 50% cryptocurrency.

Long-term Outlook
Regardless of who wins, both will likely continue policies of monetary expansion, increased deficit spending, and support for tech innovation, especially in AI. These areas point to key growth drivers for the future.

In summary:
Adapt to circumstances and ride the trends.

[Jennie $LOKI @beikie199]

@maxiprotocol i see great future

[MAX AI @maxiprotocol]

Thrilled to share that our director - Prof. Yu Xiong, was invited to speak at the Innovation and Integration of AI and Security event in Tokyo 🇯🇵

Hosted by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, we are excited about the future of AI and the launch of $MAX AI🤖

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

美国杰克逊霍尔年会鲍威尔全面鸽派；
鲍威尔的政策转变已经完成。
加仓了 $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, 美股 $TNA, $DPST 和地产股；

The Powell pivot is complete.
Just added $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $TNA, $DPST etc；

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

跟上了吗？老铁们。 大爆涨，难以想象！
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $TNA, $DPST

Have you followed my alpha call, Mates?
#BTC #SPX

[Jennie $LOKI @beikie199]

Trade $MAXITY now

[MAX AI @maxiprotocol]

Quick update! 📣

$MAX will be officially renamed to $MAXITY on @MEXC_Official. Stay tuned for more updates and opportunities within the Maxity ecosystem! 👏

https://t.co/V7Z5KuProx

[Jennie $LOKI @beikie199]

@maxiprotocol @MEXC_Official Good news

[MAX AI @maxiprotocol]

Quick update! 📣

$MAX will be officially renamed to $MAXITY on @MEXC_Official. Stay tuned for more updates and opportunities within the Maxity ecosystem! 👏

https://t.co/V7Z5KuProx

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

门头沟抛压几号能消耗完？空头的丧钟即将敲响？

几天不发推，又有一大帮KOL带着做空了；估计不把自己的粉丝亏完不罢休。
门头沟抛压是目前大家所关心的，很多人担心会像德国政府卖币时一样，把 $BTC 砸的抬不起头，下面我分析下：

一、门头沟抛压几号能消耗完？

1、7月16日，门头沟地址开始转出；BTC下跌一小波；
2、到目前，一半的申诉人已经兑付；BTC在63-65K区间震荡；
3、剩下的大头在Kraken，Kraken承诺1-2周内兑现，即下周内兑付完；
Kraken接收到的是4.5万个BTC；根据门头沟受害者内部社群调查，鉴于未来利好较多，预计只有30%左右的会在收到后卖掉；
接下来Kraken的操作和余额变动，我在链上也能看到（如下图），有异常的话，再和大家更新。
总结：在利好驱动和ETF持续净流入下，门头沟抛压雷声大雨点小，影响不大，且在下周利空会完全兑现。

二、空头的丧钟即将敲响？最后的跑路机会？

1、下周门头沟利空兑现；
2、 预计下周二以太坊ETF开始交易；灰度信托的抛压预计会被其他etf吸收；
3、美股的回调，是选举年的季节性回调，预计在7月底即下周调整完毕恢复上涨；
4、7月26日，PCE数据预计是利好，将提振风险资产；
5、7月27日，特朗普参与 #BTC2024 大会并发言；川普目前的影响力和带单能力不可限量！
6、9月美联储会议，市场预测101%的概率会降息。
总结：7月26日之前，是空头最后的跑路机会，不然就是爆仓。

三、对策：
1、不要做空BTC；
2、若Kraken抛压带来小回调，在60-62K区间可以做多；不要怕58 .6K的缺口;
3、若以太ETF上线后，灰度信托带来抛压，要在黄金坑里积累 $ETH 的仓位；
3、之前没有跟上我们在55K满仓现货的新粉丝，建议在7月底的时候，满仓现货，币种配比参考我之前的推文。

When Will the Mt. Gox Sell Pressure Be Exhausted? The Death Knell for Short Sellers is About to Sound

A bunch of KOLs are pushing for short #BTC recently. It seems they won't stop until their followers have lost all their money. The current concern is the Mt. Gox sell pressure, with many worried it would dump BTC just like when the German government.

I. When Will the Mt. Gox Sell Pressure Be Exhausted?
1. **July 16th**: Mt. Gox addresses began transferring BTC.
2. **Current Situation**: Half of the claimants have already been paid, and BTC fluctuats in the 63-65K range.
3. **Remaining Holdings**: The majority is held by Kraken exchange, which promised to complete payouts within 1-2 weeks on 16th July.
- Kraken received about 45K BTC. According to internal surveys among Mt. Gox victims, only about 30% users plan to sell their BTC upon receipt.
- Kraken's BTC balance changes are monitored by me on chain (see image below). If there are any abnormalities, I will update it.
**Summary**: Driven by positive news and continuous ETF inflows, the Mt. Gox sell pressure is mostly noise with minimal impact, and the bearish effects should fully play out by next week.

II. The Death Knell for Short Sellers? The Last Chance to Run?
1. The bearish impact of Mt. Gox will be fully realized next week.
2. #ETH ETF is expected to start trading next Tuesday. Any sell pressure from Grayscale's trust will likely be absorbed by other ETFs.
3. SPX Correction: This is a seasonal correction in an election year, expected to end by late July and resume an upward trend.
4. PCE data on 26th July is expected to be positive, boosting risk markets.
5. #Trump will speak at the #BTC2024 conference on 27th July. His influence and ability to drive markets is significant.
6. September Fed Meeting: There is a 100% market prediction probability of an interest rate cut.
**Summary**: Before July 26th, short sellers have their last chance to escape. Otherwise, they risk liquidation.

III. Strategy:
1. Do Not Short BTC.
2. If Kraken's sell pressure causes a minor correction, consider longing in the 60-62K range. Don't fear the 58.6K gap.
3. If the launch of the Eth ETF results in sell pressure from Grayscale Trust, accumulate ETH positions during this golden opportunity.
4. For new followers who missed our full-position buy recommendation at 55K, consider going all-in with spot purchases by the end of July. Refer to my previous tweets for portfolio guidance.

[Jennie $LOKI @beikie199]

@Jeremykim03 @LordWilliamUK 蹲

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

特朗普胜选概率大增，如何布局潜在利好美股？

昨日的枪击事件，特朗普运气爆棚，表现勇猛，化险为夷，有如神助。
事件后，川普美国大选获胜概率快速升至70%，拜登的胜率跌至18%。
哪些美股会获益，成为特朗普完胜概念股？
1、川普旗下的特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）；
2、川普的盟友，马斯克的Tesla（TSLA）；
3、收益于川普的货币宽松、弱美元的政策的股票，iShares罗素2000指数ETF（IWM/TNA），区域银行股ETF（DPST）；
4、"让剩余的比特币都在美国挖出"“首位比特币总统”宣言下利好的比特币矿业股（CLSK/MARA/RIOT）和 $BTC 相关ETF（IBIT/ARKB）；
5、受益于放松华尔街资本流动性规则的银行、消费金融公司：摩根大通（JPM）、美国银行（BAC）；
6、因为并购审查活动减少受益的金融机构：高盛（GS）、摩根士丹利（MS）；
7、得益于监管放松的天然气生产商：Cheniere能源（LNG）、埃克森美孚（XOM）、康菲石油（COP）；
8、提供更广泛医保覆盖的保险公司：联合健康集团（UNH）、Humana（HUM）；
9、受益于川普贸易保护政策的半导体制造商、：英特尔（INTC）、德州仪器（TXN）、应用材料（AMAT）；
10、受益于川普不感冒环保，强调本土就业优先的，燃油车制造商和钢铁制造商，福特（F）、通用汽车（GM）、纽柯钢铁（NUE）、Steel Dynamics（STLD）；

下周，我会分配加仓 $INTC $DJT $TSLA $TNA $DPST $F $CLSK $MARA $RIOT
相信这个特朗普概念美股组合，会有不错的收益。
谋时而动，顺势而为！

Trump's Winning Probability pumps, which U.S. stocks are worth buying on it?
Following yesterday's shooting incident, Trump had a stroke of luck and showed extraordinary courage, coming out unscathed as if divinely protected. After the event, his probability of winning the U.S. election quickly rose to 70%, while Biden's dropped to 18%.
Which U.S. stocks are likely to benefit and become "Trump Victory Concept Stocks"?
1. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT)
2. Trump’s ally, Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA)
3. Stocks that benefit from Trump’s monetary easing and weak dollar policies: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM/TNA), Regional Bank ETF (DPST)
4. Trump-supported Bitcoin mining stocks (CLSK/MARA/RIOT) and #BTC spot ETFs (IBIT/ARKB)
5. Banks and consumer finance companies benefiting from the relaxation of Wall Street liquidity rules: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC)
6. Financial institutions benefiting from reduced merger scrutiny: Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS)
7. Natural gas producers benefiting from deregulation: Cheniere Energy (LNG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP)
8. Insurance companies providing broader health coverage: UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Humana (HUM)
9. Semiconductor manufacturers benefiting from Trump’s trade protection policies: Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Applied Materials (AMAT)
10. Fuel vehicle manufacturers and steel manufacturers benefiting from Trump’s emphasis on local employment over environmental concerns: Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD)

In the following week, I will add my position in $INTC $DJT $TSLA $TNA $DPST $F $CLSK $MARA $RIOT.
I believe that this Trump concept US stock portfolio will have good returns.

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

55K满仓的BTC现货盈利中，你踏空了吗？如何应对？

周日川普枪击事件后，当选概率大增， $BTC 快速拉升，突破下降趋势线和MA20；
7月5日以来的行情很妖，底部磨人，虽然我们在55.1K抄底现货满仓了，但57-59区间布局的多单被止损了；

看了一圈推特，踏空的人很多，如果你也踏空了，这不怪你。因为这次抄底很难：
1、BTC周日突破，量能其实不大，缺口在下；
2、川普事件突然，没有美股开盘，利好程度难判；
3、大多KOL看空BTC到5万以下甚至4万；
4、德国刚卖完，门头沟还没开始卖；
5、这十天市场情绪很悲观；
6、BTC没有日线级别回踩，直接V反了。

所以，谅解自己。
左侧和右侧抄底的区别：
1、左侧抄底，买入价会相对低，但需要承受底下还有底的风险，承受套牢的痛苦；
2、右侧抄底，买入价相对高，止损好设，风险相对低，但买入时机短，容易追不上，承受踏空的痛苦；
根据统计，卖飞和踏空的心理痛苦，大于套牢的痛苦；

行情为什么妖：
1、市场资金不足，降息前只有局部小牛；
2、主力没有能力带很多人上车；所以必须深砸、快拉的洗盘；

对策：
1、拿好我们抄底的现货，在几个BTC阻力位65K，69K，71K，我会关注小级别形态，若有颓势，会分别止盈一些；
2、合约等待回踩测试，或其他小周期机会，带好止损择机做；
3、主要做有利好的品种，btc（月底比特币大会），eth（以太坊ETF），sol（明年的ETF，9月份的升级）等；
4、山寨：突破下降趋势线并站上日线MA20的会买回来一些，提前布局10月份的山寨季；
5、门头沟预计在2个月内兑付，兑付的当日，会止盈一部分，并关注行情承压情况。

昨天推荐的美股，开盘时加仓了些， $Coin / $Clsk/ $Mara/ $Riot/ $Tna/ $Dpst 的盈利不错，恭喜跟上的小伙伴们。

Missed BTC pumped? It's Not Your Fault

After Trump shooting incident yesterday, the winning probability of his election increased significantly, causing $BTC to pump. #BTC broke the downward trendline and daily MA20.
Since July 5th, the market has been quite erratic, but I called to build full spot position on BTC at 55.1K.

Looking around Twitter, it seems many people missed out. If you missed it too, it’s not your fault. This bottoming process was particularly challenging:
1. BTC's breakthrough on Sunday had low volume, leaving a gap below.
2. The Trump incident was sudden, and with no stock market opening, the extent of the bullish impact was hard to gauge.
3. Many KOLs were quite bearish, predicting BTC to drop below 50K, even as low as 40K.
4. Germany had just sold off, and Mt. Gox hasn't started selling yet.
5. The market sentiment over the past ten days has been very pessimistic.
6. BTC did not have a daily level pullback test and went straight for a V-shaped pump.
So, fogive yourself.

The Difference Between Left-Side and Right-Side Bottom Buying:
1. **Left-Side Bottom Buying**: You get a relatively low buying price but must endure the risk of further downside and the pain of being stuck.
2. **Right-Side Bottom Buying**: The buying price is relatively higher, stop losses are easier to set, the risk is lower, but the buying timing is short, making it easy to miss out and endure the pain of missing the opportunity.
According to statistics, the psychological pain of selling too early or missing out is greater than that of being stuck.

Why Is the Market So Erratic?
1. Insufficient market liquidity.
2. Whales lack the capacity to onboard retail investors, necessitating sharp drops and quick rebounds for effective wash trading.

Strategies:
1. Hold spot position we bought at the bottom. I will watch at key resistance levels (65K, 69K, 71K) and take partial profits accordingly.
2. Wait for a pullback test to enter new long positions.
3. Focus on cyptos with positive catalysts: $BTC (Bitcoin2024 submit), $ETH (Ethereum ETF approval), $SOL (next year's ETF, Chain upgrade in Sep), etc.
4. Altcoins: Buy back some that breakout the downward trendline and hold above the daily MA20, get ready for the potential altcoin season in Oct.
5. Mt. Gox payouts are expected within the next two months. On the payout day, I will take partial profits and monitor the market's pressure response.

After all:
Congrats to those who followed my stock call yesterday. $Coin, $Clsk, $Mara, $Riot, $Tna, and $Dpst performed very well after opening.

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

周一开盘让大家买的美股 $DPST, $MARA, $TNA, $CLSK, $RIOT 等都暴涨了20%！
你跟上了吗？
感受下这个大阳柱。
The U.S. stocks I recommended on Monday, such as $DPST, $MARA, $TNA, $CLSK, $RIOT all pumped by 20%!
Mates, have you followed?
Feel the impact of the huge green candles!