Ben Binday

Politics. Wrote for @washingtonpost @chronicle @dailypenn. benbinday.57 on Signal

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

@praveenasoma @jherrerx @washingtonpost Super happy for you!

[Meryl Kornfield @MerylKornfield]

"Turkish would also send the congresswoman a list of hurtful tweets people were writing about her, four people familiar with Turkish’s influence on Stevens said." https://t.co/0ukRserkZS

[Dan Merica @merica]

Jason Turkish took such a hands-on role in Rep. Haley Stevens’s campaign that her senior staff worked out ways on how to restrict his role.

On the unlikely figure at the center of the contentious Michigan Senate race w/ @ErinatThePost & @ktumulty: https://t.co/A7FbdSMCBr

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

The final @SplitTicket_/@TheArgumentMag model update, run with today's polls.

Senate: 53D-47R (77% 🟦)
House: 239D-196R (92% 🟦)

The data unambiguously says something. It's just that nobody seems to actually believe it. We'll see if that's warranted.
https://t.co/w6EmyZoWmu

[Jared Mitovich @jaredmitovich]

I’ve been roadtripping through Maine for @WSJ—talked today with a wild blueberry farmer whose packaging costs were pummeled by Canadian tariffs. Then the Iran war raised prices for almost everything else.

He’s a Republican and voted for Susan Collins in each of her past elections. This cycle, he defected to Troy Jackson and said it was time to put a check on Trump.
https://t.co/CHUHCcoNjm

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Posting my predictions for posterity (& a 235D-200R House).

Would be a great night for Dems, but with less House pickups than 2018 and not quite the tsunami some are predicting — and just falling short in IA/KS. Have Talarico barely winning in TX and NV as the closest Gov. race.

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Another great set of polls for Democrats… with them outperforming even NYT/Siena everywhere except MN (which seems funky) and MI, by my count

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

AtlasIntel polls | 10/28-11/1 LV

US Senate 2026

🟦North Carolina: Cooper +14.9 (56.4-41.5)
🟦Maine: Jackson +9.1 (53.1-44.0)
🟦New Hampshire: Pappas +8.1 (52.3-44.2)
🟦Ohio: Brown +7.5 (51.4-43.9)
🟦Michigan: El-Sayed +7.1 (53.5-46.4)
🟦Kansas: Hamilton +7.0 (51.9-44.9)
🟦Texas: Talarico +5.9 (51.3-45.4)
🟦Alaska*: Peltola +5.5 (50.1-44.6)
🟦Iowa: Turek +4.1 (50.5-46.4)
🟦Minnesota: Flanagan +2.4 (48.1-45.7)

*Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. Its figures exclude undecided respondents and those who would not vote.

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

What might be the last poll of the cycle has Hamilton +7 (!) and Holscher +4 (!!)

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

AtlasIntel poll | 10/28-11/1 LV

Kansas statewide races 2026

US Senate
🟦Adam Hamilton 51.9%
🟥Roger Marshall 44.9% (incumbent)
——
Kansas Governor
🟦Cindy Holscher 49.9%
🟥Ty Masterson 45.6%

[Taniel @Taniel]

Just one example of why state governments are a huge (huge) prize today:

If Wisconsin Dems take the trifecta, they've signaled they'll repeal Scott Walker's emblematic, notorious law curtailing collective bargaining.

[Max Tani @maxwelltani]

I'm told that Mike Lawler's campaign informed Bloomberg that it is "revoking all RSVPs and press credentials for Bloomberg reporters." The Lawler campaign told Bloomberg any reporter who tries to attend will be "treated as a trespasser."

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

From my NH visit:

https://t.co/xtuF9jOpC3

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

One sign of the continued vibes shift toward Dems: no one is really talking about NH anymore.

NH had a moment where the GOP viewed it (& MI) as possible-to-likely flips, and some Democrats sounded alarms during my late September visit. Both now seem pretty safe for Democrats.

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

It comes as some polls show popular Gov. Kelly Ayotte in a close race with Cindy Warmington, though the race has flown under the radar.

Ayotte’s likely to considerably outrun John Sununu, so Warmington would probably need a decisive Pappas win (> ~12%) to have a real shot.

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Cook: “The endorsement fracas…did not change our view.”

Michigan at lean D now has Dems at 48 seats without any of the 5 toss-ups (& polls still show Dems leading in all)

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: our final Senate ratings are live. We're projecting a Dem gain of 3-6 seats, and #MISEN moves from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: https://t.co/FWYMxXQWl2

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Chaz projects Dems gaining 425 state legislative seats — far more than in 2018 and the most for either party since 2010.

Also predicts new D trifectas in MN, MI, WI, AZ, PA (and for Rs in KS)

[Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe]

🚨FINAL FORECASTS🚨

The final @StateNavigate 2026 state government forecasts are out now.

We project a net gain of D+425 in state legislatures nationwide.

Ds are expected to create trifectas & supermajorities, and break R trifectas/supermajorities.

https://t.co/uR0RlMqYIj

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

here's the entirety of the seeming mental breakdown Haley Stevens just had on CNN. One of the most bizarre and incoherent political interviews I can recall. Note how she's completely unable to explain why she changed her mind from supporting Abdul El-Sayed last night to endorsing Mike Rogers today.

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Now this is a sign of a blue tsunami (especially in New England) if the wildly popular Phil Scott is down or even in a close race with Janoo

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

UNH poll | 10/27-10/31

Vermont Governor 2026

🟦Amanda Janoo 51%
🟥Phil Scott 43% (incumbent)

Link to poll: https://t.co/9QsvM2fVQX

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Dingell: “I think that this is backfiring. Abdul has raised more money today, more than $1 million… people in the Black community are really angry about who speaks for them.”

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Debbie Dingell on CNN after Haley Stevens’ interview:

“That was one of the most painful interviews I’ve ever watched. I’ve been concerned about her all of the last week… and I’m very concerned that this has all become a distraction

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Haley Stevens:

“My mind is made up. I’m rock solid… I still love my party a whole lot, and I still project that Democrats are going to win big.”

“It sounds like you’re upset with me too, Anderson!”

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Haley Stevens on CNN:

“This is just a weight off my shoulders. Abdul has just been getting angrier and angrier.”

“I woke up this morning clear eyed, fresh, and focused on what was in my heart.”

[Ben Binday @benbinday]

Interview is getting testy as Stevens doesn’t directly answer what caused her to change her mind, and compares El-Sayed to Graham Platner’s controversies.

“This is about Abdul getting angrier and angrier and saying I don’t want these people in my campaign.”