Benchmark Politics

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

Post-analysis of the Benchmark Model. I'd say it did pretty great! We projected 35 seats, and there are currently 30 seats with 10 outstanding. Demos performed slightly better in R leaning seats, but we identified the true tossup races accurately.

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

@williamjordann Never mind just caught it!

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

@williamjordann Good, measured approach at looking at the data, rather than drawing conclusions on the top lines for a race that is a year and some months away.

Where does Georgia fall in this kind of dive?

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

@williamjordann Case in point: The lean in Pennsylvania didn't change much, but given the numbers we have, Trump is in much worse shape in PA than he was going into 2016.

Of course... we don't even have a challenger yet so this is all kind of moot. But fun to speculate over.

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

@williamjordann Now that is pretty fascinating. Although again, one would have to carefully interpret lean change here - if the national average itself is low, then a state lean adjusting towards Trump slightly does not offset the effect of the national average itself.

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

@williamjordann Looking through, the biggest departures between his vote share in 2016 and Civiqs approval:

- NH: 47%, Civiqs: 35%
- NV: 46%, Civiqs: 37%
- NC: 50%, Civiqs: 44%
- PA: 48%, Civiqs: 42%
- ME: 45%, Civiqs: 39%
- MI: 48%, Civiqs: 43%
- AZ: 49%, Civiqs: 44%
- OH: 52%, Civiqs: 48%

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

@williamjordann Something seemed off. I figured it was the scale. I see the point you're making (he can be underwater and still win), but currently he's much more underwater than his vote share in most places. If you trust Civiqs, he's at -10 in WI, -11 in MI, -9 in NC.

[MonmouthPoll @MonmouthPoll]

IOWA DEM CAUCUS POLL: Early #2020Dem preference:
28% @JoeBiden
19% @EWarren
11% @KamalaHarris
9% @SenSanders
8% @PeteButtigieg
3% @AmyKlobuchar
3% @TomSteyer
2% @SenGillibrand
2% @AndrewYang

15 others included in the poll receive 1% or less
#IowaCaucus
https://t.co/156jZczKvV

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

Biden and Sanders are both likely at their peak — complete name recognition.

Warren and Harris have room to grow as we have seen in primary polling.

Biggest thing though: no national vote. Trumps win was based on very specific EC outcome which came from popular vote loss

[Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics]

Our new NBC/WSJ poll results are our first hypothetical general-election matchups for the 2020 race:

Biden 51%, Trump 42%
Sanders 50%, Trump 43%
Warren 48%, Trump 43%
Harris 45%, Trump 44%

(July 7-9, MOE: +/- 3.5%)

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

The snapshot of Harris and Biden re: busing as Sanders sits in the middle illustrates this.

-Biden holds steady and does not impress supporters ( "more than 4 in 10 said he did worse than they had expected")

https://t.co/WRhAKAdLP7

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

New Suffolk/USA Today Iowa Poll POST DEBATE

https://t.co/WRhAKAdLP7

Biden 24%
Harris 16% (!!!)
Warren 13%
Sanders 9% (!!!)

A few points we made yesterday seem to be gaining more and more traction: --->

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

---> - Harris and Warren have enjoyed nice numbers in the "wanting to learn more about" questions and it seems the debate has given them the spotlight they needed.

- There is undoubtedly a drop in Sanders' support after a rather unremarkable debate performance ---->

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

Completely true! Speaking from an aggregate standpoint you will see a distinct declining trend.

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

@MrWalterShapiro All very fair observations! So much to consider

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

---> a seemingly decent debate performance.

- Four (!!!!!) candidates have a near equal shot of winning the nomination next year with a handful within shouting distance. Wild primary season ahead!

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

CNN Poll POST DEBATE

(There is lots to digest here)

https://t.co/MLIoaZylsI

Biden 22% (!!!)
Harris 17% (!!!)
Warren 15% (!!!)
Sanders 14% (!!!)
Buttigieg 4% (!!!)
Booker 3%
O’Rourke 3%

Notice all the (!!!)? Lots of widely swinging numbers here with Harris being the top move

[Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk]

Brand new @CNN poll of the 2020 race just out:

Biden down 10 points, Harris and Warren double their support since May

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%
Booker 3%
O’Rourke 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Everyone else 1% or less

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

-Sanders seems to have benefited heavily from 1) Lack of Awareness among general electorate (This was an oft argued point which seems to be coming to fruition) and 2) General distrust of "Clinton name"

-Buttigieg seems to have lost quite a bit of support despite --->

[Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur]

New HuffPost/YouGov poll finds that the debate went well for Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

https://t.co/eCIGVewlVb

[Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol]

Who’s stock is rising? Who’s is falling? Let us know what you think about night 1 of the Dem Debates so far.