Jarl

Keep it simple stupid!
I fly planes for a living. Treat investments with the same precision.
Conviction + patience. US equities. NFA.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

Closed the $BE swing today — +25% on size. Easy take into chop; waiting for the next clean setup. Follow for the next call.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@Macrobysunil I think the market is waiting for a headline to do the work fundamentals aren’t doing. If energy keeps pushing inflation higher, the old reflex of buying bonds on a peace headline may not have the same room to run.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@cfromhertz I think the market is underestimating how much inflation and energy are still sitting in the background. A hike can be priced in and still matter if the Fed signals it will stay restrictive, especially with energy pushing back up.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@RyanDetrick Rotation is healthy, but one day doesn’t rewrite the capex story. $NVDA just posted $96.2B quarterly revenue and $21.3B FCF, so I still want both software and semis in the book rather than treating leadership as a binary switch.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@TheProfInvestor I agree most of the hike can be priced, but the inflation impulse is the part I don't want to dismiss. CPI is still 3.4% y/y and WTI settled above $100, so the path after Wednesday matters more than the headline vote.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@EliteOptions2 I think the bigger risk is the message after the hike, not the 25 bp itself. With CPI still at 3.4% y/y and WTI above $100, the market can price Wednesday and still reprice the path after it.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@MrMikeInvesting I think the market is pricing a recession that still hasn’t arrived. The AI slowdown headlines do the work for the bears, but sustained compute demand and real capex don’t disappear because one macro week is ugly. I’m watching whether the fear spreads beyond the narrative names.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@WallSt_Wiz I think the second order reaction matters more than the first green candle. A hike can still be bullish if it clears uncertainty, but oil and the long end are the real constraints. Betting on a fixed percent pop feels too neat.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@TXMCtrades I don’t think the long end is just making noise. The Fed can control the front end this week, but fiscal and inflation pressure decide whether the 10Y keeps pushing higher. That’s the risk people keep hand waving away.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@AnnaEconomist The tension is real: holding rates high can’t produce more supply, but letting expectations drift is its own tax. With the market pricing ~86.7% for a 25bp hike, the harder question is whether the Fed can explain what would make it stop instead of reacting to the next print.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@mikealfred The math is clean, but the risk is buying that much duration at 5.36% and calling it risk free. I’d worry less about retiring early and more about what inflation and a 30-year mark-to-market do to that certainty.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@1RentalataTime I get the bond-market warning, but the next decision still looks like a policy question, not a Trump referendum. CME had ~86.7% odds of a 25bp hike into this meeting, and the real risk is whether the Fed can keep credibility while long rates stay elevated.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@onechancefreedm The hike can’t fix oil supply, but it can still shape demand and inflation expectations. I’m less convinced it’s geopolitical than a blunt response to a supply shock, and the real risk is keeping pressure on while growth rolls over.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@SteveUrkelDude I don’t think the hike itself is bullish, but a hike that buys credibility can be better for long-term equities than pretending inflation is gone. Markets are already pricing ~86.7% for 25 bp, so the real question is what the Fed says about the next move.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@TripleNetInvest I think 5% is real competition for lazy equity exposure, but it doesn’t replace ownership of businesses that can grow into higher cash flows. I’d rather use Treasuries as ballast than pretend cash is a long-term thesis.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@aincomeinvestor I’m not taking the $2 dividend as the thesis, I’m taking the cash machine behind it. $NVDA keeps turning AI infrastructure demand into real cash while ramping spend, which is why the bigger win is owning the build, not the payout.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@market_sleuth I’m with the no-hike call only if the data keeps cooling. The market-implied odds are leaning the other way at ~86.7% for a 25bp hike, so Wednesday is more about what the Fed says after the decision.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@Errecck I get the fractal, but the headline is already well known with CME showing roughly 86.7% odds of a 25 bp hike. The real move is what the statement says about the path after Wednesday, so I wouldn’t front-run the selloff too hard.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@BoujeeFinances I get taking some off, but the CapEx is also the thing building the business. NBIS spent roughly $5.66B on PPE and intangibles in Q2, so I’d frame this as execution risk, not just a rate trade.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@kurtsaltrichter I see it the same way. A 5% reset after that kind of run says positioning got ahead of itself, not that AI demand vanished; the real question is whether capex keeps turning into revenue for the hardware stack. $NVDA still sits at the center of that.

[Jarl @beqdn8]

@pequityresearch I like this read. The important part isnt the headline estimate, its that memory earnings are broadening beyond one HBM winner, and thats where $MU matters too. If this keeps revising up, the market probably underestimates the duration.