SyntheticMeasure

My stream of consciousness on markets. Global rates and fx

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

Unusually quiet from the 7% govt yield furus today

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

@onechancefreedm Yes, one of the main reasons for having fx reserves. Will be hearing less about the bond vigilantes narrative when they start rebuilding reserves again

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

🔴 Al Jazeera: Iranian Official denies reports that Iran's Supreme Leader said that Uranium must stay in Iran.

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

Circular financing works as long as the players don't have to pay someone outside of the circle. But recently semis wanted their cut and now it's the bond market's turn

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

@OneHotCode1 @LONGCONVEXITY Treasury bond basis is unique. That said, I think Foreign exchange by Iqbal was worth a read

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

Yesterday I published a short video explaining why we are in an AI infrastructure bubble.

I want to point out that the work from @subquadratic is one potential breakthrough of the type I am referring to. This would materially decrease memory needed for constant demand and impact $MU.

@AppenResearch has done an initial validation of their results. The key sentence is "The result is an architecture that scales linearly with context length instead of quadratically."

We are still pending further validations. If the results continue to be shown to be true, this is the "worst" that it will ever be. The techniques will be incorporated into models and built upon.

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

@PradyuPrasad Or somewhere deep inside they know that regressing something on 3 or 4 data mined "factors" from pre 1980 actually doesn't say much

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

What matters now is wages

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

Seems Iran can't enforce the closure if tested. Clearly panicked

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

Seems really, really risky

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

https://t.co/rGDxTYJnnp

Semis are toast

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

https://t.co/rGDxTYJnnp

Semis are toast

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

A new blog on a hot topic -- petrodollars

The basic theme though is back when oil was at $70 there weren't actually many petrodollars -- and there won't be all that many of them even if oil settles at $100

https://t.co/NFWDnn5zbv

1/

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

@lord_fed Definitely. If Dong is all we get today, we can be 90% certain that this is over.

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

@InterestArb Starting to fear that we've all been wrong regarding the intelligence of equities vs fixed income traders.

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

Guten morgen all bund bears. Rise and shine

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

@rdd147 Enter the bad cop

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

You will see a lot of bias, both of political and confirmation varieties, on twitter now. It may hurt your pnl. Trust me it's over. Only formalities remain.

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

Pretty good app

[SyntheticMeasure @BetaExpensive]

@Dcpcooks Better opportunities elsewhere?

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

Consumer spending is 70% of GDP.

But 52% of it is recession-proof.

Another 30% barely moves.

Only 16% actually drives the cycle.

This chart shows the full breakdown, ranked by cyclicality: