Michael Crabtree

Commercial Real Estate Developer & Operator. Retail Expert Venturing into Mixed Use. CRE and Tech Investor. Always learning. DMs are open.

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

Build the business that will put your business out of business

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@xxChessMaster @grok what is the next move for white?

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@chess_feed @grok Why can’t White just advance pawn instead of taking both bishop?

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

This is terrific

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump with Nick Shirley, JD Vance and Stephen Miller formally establishes a federal fund to give MONETARY REWARDS to anyone who gives information leading to the conviction of a fraudster — 1% COMMISSION

INCLUDING reporters! This could even incentivize the 3rd worlders to tell on each other! 🔥

"Anyone who can prove they turned somebody in...and you find $1B, we are giving a commission of 1%."

This is sending chills down the spine of Somalis and foreigners.

It has to lead to a conviction or a major federal enforcement action

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@scott_deady @elonmusk @SpaceX Imagine seeing the largest charitable gift in human history [given directly to children] and being solely focused on ulterior motives.

And to clarify—@SpaceX isn’t giving the shares away it is @elonmusk personally.

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@brivael Well said 🎯

[Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee]

By Leslie Stahl’s logic, it’s wrong to require air travelers in America to go through TSA screening because (1) very few air travelers carry out terrorist acts (indeed, “the numbers are tiny”), and (2) mandatory TSA screening tends to “sow distrust” in the safety of air travel.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.

This will be the first of many.

[Handre @Handre]

I'm South African. I also want to talk to Americans who are about to vote Democrat. To warn you.

I come from even further into the future.

South Africa used to be a first-world country. We had the best infrastructure and hospitals in the world, and we were developing our own nuclear capability.

Today, there is literally shit running in the streets; people in our capital, Johannesburg, haven't had running water for months and more than 40 000 rape cases are reported every year.

For most South Africans, there is no such thing as healthcare. You go and stand in a queue for days, then go home.

This is what happens when you hand your country to economically illiterate progressive fools with catchy slogans.

Don't do it.

[Krzysztof Szczawinski 🇵🇱 @Kristof_Poland]

I’m Polish. If France is your future, I come from the end of that road.

France shows you the slow version. We lived the full one – the version where the state doesn’t just take care of everything. It owns everything.

In Poland it arrived with Soviet bayonets. In America it would arrive by vote – slower, softer, with better slogans. But the destination is the same, and so is the mechanism.

It starts with prices. When the state decides what things should cost, prices stop telling the truth. A price is a message: this is scarce, this is wanted, make more of this. Abolish the message, and the whole economy goes deaf. So the shelves emptied – first of meat, then of almost everything.

Every Pole knew the joke. A man walks into a shop: "No meat?" The clerk: "No, sir. Here is no fish. No meat is across the street."

We queued for everything. People wrote their place in line on their palms and kept lists through the night. You waited years for a small car, and often more than a decade for an apartment. Not because Poles were lazy. Because nobody in the system had any reason to produce what we needed.

At work, we had another joke: we pretended to work, and they pretended to pay us.

And the promise of equality? It produced the most unequal system of all. The party elite had their own shops – Poles called them the shops behind the yellow curtains. Those with dollars shopped in special stores. Everyone else got the queue.

Then the system needed informers, because nobody believed in it anymore. Our neighbors were recruited to report on us. You never knew who was listening – the colleague, the friend, sometimes family. So we learned to live a double life: one language in public, another at home.

Those who spoke up got the wolf ticket: no job, no promotion, sometimes no university place for their children. Nobody needed to send them to prison. They just couldn’t live.

The newspapers reported record harvests while the shelves stood empty. Everyone knew. Nobody said it. That is what a society looks like when the lie becomes the system.

In 1950 we were about as rich as Spain. By 1989, Spain was twice as rich. That is what forty years of "fairness" cost us.

Today in America, the method is softer. Your neighbor won’t inform on you to the secret police. Someone will report your post, and you’ll be cancelled – no job, no account, no platform. Different tools, same machine.

We got out. Ten million of us joined Solidarity, and in 1989 a system that looked eternal collapsed. Since then, Poland has become one of the great success stories of Europe – because people were finally free to build.

But we still carry it. More than thirty years later, you can see it in the careful answers, the closed faces - the system leaves faster than the fear does. It takes generations to get out of it fully once you fall into that trap.

Nobody votes for the queue. Nobody votes for the informer. They come with the promise.

Trust me, you don’t want to go down that road.

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

I’m French. I want to talk to Americans who are about to vote Democrat. Not to insult you. To warn you.

I come from your future.

In France we did everything your progressive politicians promise. Free healthcare, free college, generous welfare, strong unions, heavy regulation, high taxes on the rich, a state that takes care of everything. Public spending close to 57% of GDP, one of the highest on the planet. On paper, it’s the dream.

Here’s what it looks like from the inside. France hasn’t passed a balanced budget since 1974. Our debt is above 3,300 billion euros. Interest on that debt is becoming one of the biggest items in the national budget. Our hospitals are collapsing despite record funding. Our schools rank lower every year. Young people with degrees can’t afford an apartment in the city they were born in. Our best engineers leave for London, Zurich and San Francisco. And the rich you wanted to tax? They left too, and took the jobs with them.

The promise was protection. The result is stagnation.

The worst part is that nobody in France voted for decline. Every single step sounded generous, compassionate, reasonable. One more program. One more regulation. One more tax to fund it. Each step alone makes sense. Fifty years of them, and you wake up in a country that can no longer build a nuclear plant on time or keep its streets safe.

I love America because it’s the one place on earth where people still believe they can build something from nothing. I came to Silicon Valley as a self-taught kid and it changed my life. That spirit is the most precious thing your country has.

Before you vote, ask yourself one question: is the program you’re voting for making America more like America, or more like France?

Trust me. You don’t want to be France.

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

Great comment. Interest carry is a relatively small expense overall— far more relevant are exit cap rate and developer spread.

@bobbyfijan I’m curious— we haven’t done a 221d4 loan before but we’re looking at now. Is the bottleneck the loan approval process itself— or just the level of plans (CDs) required and cost/lead time to create? How much time is the process adding outside of your normal development critical path? (We are looking at for large multi with 9+ month design timeline at full speed ahead)

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@SecScottBessent @SecScottBessent has to be the greatest Treasury Secretary ever

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@realBigBrainAI Good- they can do something more productive

[Doug Powers @ThePowersThatBe]

What should frighten every American is the ease with which Democrats can be convinced to spread total lies and distortions. https://t.co/8XAsTVcAWA

[Ian Miller @ianmSC]

It’s just endless. Media creates hoax, media figures and politicians repeat hoax, social media spreads hoax, then late night political talk show goes on fake moral crusade about the hoax, the left then encodes a permanent religious belief in hoax, rinse repeat

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@pronounced_kyle @DrewPavlou Great insight. Scary precedent indeed

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@drgurner @XFreeze The path is essentially the product roadmap for his companies. Rapidly declining costs and rapidly accelerating productivity from robotics, software, abundant cheap energy & compute

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@SawyerMerritt Mind blown 🤯

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Last year the same labs, politicians, NGOs, and media outlets now pushing the extinction hoax were running a full-scale campaign that AI would cause a jobs apocalypse.

We were told it would be a “white-collar bloodbath,” 10–20% unemployment, half of entry-level jobs gone. Obama amplified it.

Over a year later: unemployment at 4.1%. No economy-wide displacement. A million new jobs created by AI, says The Economist. Anthropic’s own chief economist says the data looks like skill augmentation, not job destruction.

So, any admission by the doomer labs, politicians, and NGOs that they were wrong? Any humility about scaring the public with wild extrapolations dressed up as forecasts? Nope.

They just move on to the next hoax, with the same false certitude and fake precision.

[Michael Crabtree @bettermethod]

@chickengenius That’s not a tax free 5.4%