commercial real estate finance @Berkadia. $15 billion+ of CRE loans over 22 yrs. JV equity and pref. Fan of D.C. sports, Orioles, Northwestern Univ. #retwit
As a result, we have seen the most hawkish shift in Fed expectations since post-pandemic stimulus.
The BASE case shows two rate HIKES by early 2027.
There is even a rising 17% chance of 3 rate HIKES by April 2027.
Just months ago, markets saw up to 4 rate CUTS in 2026 alone.
Good to see Treasury rates provide some relief this AM. 8 bps down across the board with the 10year UST at 4.23%.
Our latest rate sheet with Fannie, Freddie, CMBS, life co and debt fund indications.
a good start to a Friday: 10y UST below 4.0% and good news from Fannie Mae on permitting larger rate buydowns on multifamily mortgages. FNMA now allowing borrowers to buy down interest rates by up to 2 percentage points, aligning with Freddie Mac's policies. #CRE
When they get rid of divisions so you don't have Ohio State vs. Northwestern as the Big Ten Championship game and you can have real powers go head to head instead and then the Big Ten Championship game is Ohio State vs. Northwestern
@bairdk Avoid CMBS. Go with a bank or life co that can offer prepay flexibility. Banks are competitive right now - swap rates are 50 bps inside of US treasury rates. Don’t just look at the spread. Look at the all-in rate.
Spreads for BBB- and BBB (10-year) conduit CMBS have tightened ~ 50 bp over the past 6 weeks. Tight spreads across the board whether it is CMBS, Fannie, Freddie, LifeCo, bank, debt fund, etc...
@RothCRE Good intel. #2 is a fantastic quote. On the 10-year Agency front (#1) , we are actually seeing tighter Agency spreads than that level. Lots of spread compression on 10-year loan terms.
Whole bunch of 10-year T's being auctioned today by the Treasury department at 1pm Eastern
This will either calm things down or accelerate the bad news
Director William Pulte has rescinded a 2024 FHFA directive entitled “Aligned Policies on Multifamily Rental Payment Flexibility and Lease Notices.”
In July 2024, FHFA announced mandatory tenant protections, via loan agreements, for multifamily properties financed by Fannie and Freddie. Landlords would have been required to provide tenants with the following:
30-day written notice of a rent increase;
30-day written notice of a lease expiration; and
5-day grace period for rent payments.
These protections no longer apply.
@robbiehendricks Agency quote came in today with a 4 handle all-in rate today. After 2.0% buydown. naturally occurring affordable housing in a secondary market. Not capital A affordable. 1.55x DSCR.