The events of the last 6 months in technology are arguable amongst the most important in human history
The tools now increasingly exist for recursive self improvement of models & agents
We are likely in very early lift off & exponential
Largely unnoticed outside of tech
This came up twice today, so figured I'd tweet it.
People, internally and externally, talk [read: complain] to me that their product isn't growing, or isn't growing enough.
100% of the time they are missing at least one of the following minimum requirements for success:
(A) A *burning* user problem [not a "it'd be nice if" problem]
(B) Users with that problem, each in a [Slack] room [I'll accept WhatsApp or iMessage, but it can't be email]
(C) Narrow the problem such that you can build a 10X better solution than the current alternatives [you are very likely biting off too much to early and then you can't quick make a wow-better solution]
(D) A chart with _daily_ counts of users using the product [do not kid yourself into measuring weekly or monthly]
(E) At least 2 people, but probably under 5, working on it full-time, that like each other and meet at least once per day [new things are just more fun together than solo]
In terms of order of operation: it's first (E), then (A) which begets (B), then you just have to daily iterate back and forth between (C) and (D) unless it's growing faster again.
Founders must stop trying to building 2010-era businesses with 2026-era technology.
Don't try to rebuild Foursquare or Yelp.
Don't try to recreate Basecamp by 37 Signals with $10/mo SaaS pricing.
Don't underprice! If it works it's worth a lot more.
Don't be tempted to become "Tech enabled PE" with revenue tricks.
The rules of tech changed with AI. Play the new game.
A founder I spoke to last week spent 3 years learning everything about their industry.
Now they want to pivot to “AI for Dentists”.
The grass only looks greener because you’ve not trampled through the shit yet.
It's an unimpressive-sounding word, but one of the most powerful motivations is the motivation of the hobbyist. That's what keeps successful founders working on their companies long past the point when they've made enough to quit. It's their beloved project.
I'm with @bchesky on this one.
I think the future is not about apps, but about agents.
But the shift to agents doesn't necessarily mean text-forward, chat-based UIs.
That makes sense for some use cases -- but not all.
The future is about agents that work on your behalf, often in the background, and let you interact in ways that make sense. Sometimes, that means typing text, but others it might be a personalized UI element.
UI affordances are underrated. Sometimes humans need some guidance and nudges instead of an empty prompt box.
I think hybrid agentic interfaces will be the future.
And it's not just about B2C. Turns out, B2B users are people too. :)
People at major AI labs (using internal models) 3-4 months ahead of startup silicon valley engineers
SV founders/eng 3-6 months ahead of NY
NY founders/eng 6-12 months ahead of rest of world
Most people have no idea how fast AI shifting as 1-2 years behind SOTA
"The future is here, just not equally distributed" - Robert Heinlein
It took me 35 years to learn this: If you’re half-in, you’re actually all-out. Even 90% in gets you nowhere. There’s something magical in that last little bit. It's where you unlock new levels to the game. Simply because so few have the courage to do it.