Ryan Fuller

On the go and on the chain, ready for the next big thing!

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

Been in Dubai this whole time and never felt unsafe for a second 🇦🇪 Whoever posted this is clearly unaware of the backdoor diplomacy UAE has with Iran. Still here, still grinding 💪

[brane mijatovic @brane_mija64426]

🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi (UAE), Zayed Military City

New satellite images reveal the aftermath of Iranian strikes on American military facilities. The footage shows damage within the so-called "Zayed Military City" complex.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

19 ship-to-ship meetings in the same area?? not even trying to be subtle

[Windward @WindwardAI]

A sanctioned tanker just resurfaced in Qatari waters after 84.6 hours dark.

SHEN ZHOU (IMO 9300996): Curaçao-flagged, OFAC-sanctioned under the Iran program since July 2025, went dark July 13 and reappeared July 17 in the Qatari EEZ.

The profile behind it:

→ 19 ship-to-ship meetings on July 9 in the same area, with Iranian, Qatari, UAE, and Liberian-flagged vessels.

→ 6 identity manipulation events totaling 2,462 hours; 3 MMSI changes; two previous names.

→ A separate 92-day dark period, February–May 2026, in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

→ Ownership changed hands this month.

Extended dark periods, repeated identity changes, and a resurfacing directly into a rendezvous area = the classic signature of trans-shipment or identity laundering.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

interesting data but UAE already saw this coming. Fujairah port bypasses Hormuz entirely. DP World 18 months out. Bulletproofing the economy while everyone else watches 🇦🇪💪

[Laman @LVision_Trading]

HORMUZ | Crude oil transits update 17 July
No outbound, 2 inbound + 2 surfaced tankers in PG (currently 102 tankers, 152M bbls)
Flows seem reduced a lot.
BUT I am so not convinced it reflects the reality. 30M bbls commercial capacity went dark in PG -❓

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

People see this and panic every time. UAE has its own arrangements with Iran. Dubai keeps grinding 💪

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: Iran has launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Saudi Arabia for the first time in nearly four months, came just one day after Pakistan warned Tehran that any attack on Saudi Arabia would cross a "red line."

Footage shows missile directly hitting Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

Yanbu warning is exactly why the UAE's Fujairah port matters. Bypassing Hormuz entirely. 18 months to completion. Glad I'm based here 🇦🇪💪

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Strikes in Yanbu would be a big deal because that’s the key Red Sea loading port at the terminus of Saudi Arabia’s now-critical East-West Pipeline, which has allowed the Kingdom to reroute the majority of its barrels around the Strait of Hormuz.

1. This is only a confirmed warning, not yet seeing confirmed strikes.

2 If yes, then question is what was they hit—oil-related? Pipeline infrastructure? Loading infrastructure?

3. Then question is who? If Iran, big reach. If Houthis, new participant—at least at that level—and Bab el Mandeb Stait closure risk rises.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

@aeberman12 Hormuz fears overblown tbh. been in Dubai long enough to know UAE already built Fujairah to bypass the strait. oil is only ~24% of the economy here 🇦🇪

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

@spacemandev @solana this is actually a sick idea. GPU compute is the bottleneck for so many builders right now. would love to chat more 🚀

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

@Globalsurv Been in Dubai through all of this and honestly never felt safer. UAE's got arrangements with Iran that people don't see. Expats keep coming back for a reason 💪

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

Bro people are obviously unaware of the backdoor diplomacy UAE has with Iran. Defended well, sorted out, safe. Back to the Dubai grind and never felt better 🇦🇪💪

[OSINTWarfare @OSINTWarfare]

New satellite imagery shows that three warehouses at Sheikh Zayed Military City in Abu Dhabi, UAE, were destroyed in Iranian ballistic missile strikes on July 13.

Each warehouse appears to have been struck by a direct hit, with one missile impacting each building, indicating a very high degree of accuracy.

📍 24°29'44.9"N 54°58'57.1"E

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

@mhmiranusa Good thing UAE already built a pipeline to Fujairah so it doesn't even need Hormuz. Only ~24% of the economy is oil based anyway doomers been wrong every time 😁

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

@Dialogue_NRA meanwhile in UAE the lights stay on and we just keep building 💪🇦🇪

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

@jackprandelli Everyone stares at oil charts and misses the bigger picture. UAE built a pipeline to Fujairah to skip Hormuz entirely. ~24% oil economy, rest is logistics, trade and tech. We're good out here 🇦🇪💪

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

less than an hour to swap name and flag 😂 this is why UAE is building Fujairah port to bypass Hormuz entirely 🇦🇪

[Windward @WindwardAI]

A fully laden VLCC sailed from China to the Gulf of Oman as LAN JING. Then, with U.S. forces in pursuit on July 16, it changed its name to AZHIN at 02:36 UTC and swapped its flag from Curacao to Iran at 03:30 UTC. Less than an hour to shed one identity and claim another.

The vessel — formerly WEN YAO (IMO 9288095), sanctioned by OFAC since October 2024 — was boarded by U.S. Marines the same day, the first verification boarding of the reinstated blockade.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

Sitting in Dubai right now and everything's business as usual 🇦🇪 Traffic data speaks for itself. Back to grinding 💪

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Traffic looks normal.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

Another reminder why I chose to stay in UAE. Backdoor diplomacy with Iran actually works 🇦🇪

[Global Surveillance @Globalsurv]

🇮🇷🇮🇶Massive Fires Rage on Iraqi Kurdistan Mountain After Iranian Drone Strikes Hit Ammunition Depots and Headquarters.

[Polygon | POL @0xPolygon]

Go full stack or go home.

Catch @john3gan on the latest episode of @TokenizedPod.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

59% for a 5-step chain is wild lol no wonder half the agent stuff out there breaks

[Frander @Frandeeer]

Michael Wooldridge, Oxford AI professor:

Five AI agents that are each 90% reliable do not give you a 90% reliable system.

They give you a 59% chance that a five-step chain finishes without a mistake.

That is the failure mode most agent teams miss.

They add:

researchers,
coders,
browsers,
reviewers,
writers.

Then every output becomes the next agent's context.

One bad assumption gets passed forward, polished, cited, and shipped.

The missing role is not another worker.

It is a manager.

The manager holds the original goal.

It routes work to different models.
Checks what came back.
Replans when the evidence changes.
Stops a weak answer before it becomes a stronger-looking mistake.

This is where Claude becomes more useful as a controller than as a generic worker.

Use cheaper models for:

search,
classification,
extraction,
drafts,
repetition.

Use the frontier model for:

planning,
judgment,
routing,
and deciding when the system needs to stop.

But self-critique is not verification.

When ground truth exists, let tests, source documents, execution, and external checks overrule the model.

The most expensive model should not write the most tokens.

It should prevent the wrong output from becoming the system’s next decision.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

UAE been ahead of this. Fujairah port + pipeline already bypassing Hormuz. Only ~24% of the economy is oil anyway. Sky's still the limit 🇦🇪

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Reuters - There were no Very Large Crude Carrier or liquefied natural gas ​tankers passing through the strait for a second day on Thursday.

However, two VLCCs re-appeared on AIS tracking on ‌Thursday ⁠outside the strait, carrying 2 million barrels of crude each.

The VLCC Colombia Prosperity, laden with Saudi crude, is heading to Okinawa in Japan, while the Costa Rica Prosperity, carrying Iraqi Basra Medium crude, is destined for Turkey, the data showed.

Kpler's database showed that the tankers crossed the strait ​on July 13, while ​S&P Global Energy ⁠assessed that they exited on July 14.

My Thoughts:

Both Colombia Prosperity and Costa Rica Prosperity ENTERED the Strait of Hormuz using the Oman lane on June 30.

Based on the loading lag + transit time, we are on the last leg of the inbound tanker flows. In the next week, we will see a material drop in loading.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

Awful news but anyone actually living here knows the UAE has backdoor diplomacy with Iran. We're not in the crosshairs 💪

[471TO @TOzgokmen]

WAR took a bad turn today:

US destroyed 3 Iranian bridges, who then bombed Kuwait's desalination plan + Bahrain oil refinery.

[Ryan Fuller @bigthinggo]

@RealBababanaras bro doesn't know about the backdoor diplomacy UAE has with Iran 😂 special arrangements are in place. still here, still grinding, never felt safer 🇦🇪💪