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Forget price targets. This is a list of cycle top signals to watch.
How far away is the cycle top? Is it in?
Most of what looks like political disagreement is simply Democrats not understanding how the real world works.
They donβt understand bank loans or the difference between cash and physical assets. We learned that this month.
They donβt understand that money makes both news and science mostly fake.
They donβt understand how DEI is a supply problem not a demand problem.
They donβt understand how free speech works, or the point of it all.
They think the experts are telling the truth.
They donβt understand the degree to which their opinions are the result of intentional brainwashing.
They donβt understand that teachers unions have destroyed education and that school choice is the only viable solution.
They donβt understand the necessity of nuclear power.
They think the temperature of the planet can be accurately measured.
They think unlimited empathy for immigrants can work out well.
They think there are too many humans in the world, not too few.
They think the national debt is not a big issue.
They think releasing criminals from jail improves the lives of some communities.
They think removing guns from citizens does not create a risk of government abuse.
They think crimes not proven in court didnβt happen.
They think their kids are looking at Trump as a potential role model.
They think there is no big risk from TikTok compared to American-controlled social media.
They donβt know why half of their own kids are suddenly LGBTQ, against all odds.
I could go on. But itβs obvious why life experience turns liberals into conservatives.
The Perfect Prime Rib Guide (A Thread):
A MUST READ TWEET FOR RIB ROASTERS
I have gotten hundreds of messages asking about cooking a rib roast, so here we go, if you read anything today, let it be this post: Recipe Continues Below
*This applies both bone-in and boneless
1/7
Over the past 10 years, I've watched over 250 YouTube videos on quantitative finance.
And the truth is, 99% of them were a complete waste of time.
But these 8 are worth more than a 4-year degree:
Some fun #math and #btc (thread)
5yr CDS on the USA is 20bps (20k/yr to insure 10MM of debt against default)
Total federal debt for USA is $30T funded plus $160T unfunded
20yr CDS equiv is 80bps so:
$190T debt x .8%p/a = $1.52T premium
#btc mkt cap of $375B
/2
Celsius is one of the largest centralized gateways to crypto.
It raised $864m of venture capital and at one point custodied over $3 billion of funds for 1m+ customers.
As of today, it appears insolvent, and it's taking the whole crypto market with it.
The Celsius Thread:
π
"The measure of wealth is freedom.
The measure of health is lightness.
The measure of intellect is judgment.
The measure of wisdom is silence.
The measure of love is peace."
@naval
What is the future of Ethereum?
Last week, Vitalik Buterin co-published a paper predicting Ethereum's future.
I read the 37-page paper and interviewed its co-authors so you didn't have to.
[π§΅ THREAD]
10 reasons I'm calmly buying and holding #Bitcoin while the world panic sells:
1. The Fed says they'll keep raising rates. I call BS. Rising rates will lead to mass defaults. The same way that variable rate mortgages fucked everyone in '08, now featuring nation states.