John Lee Quigley

I will mog you.

[VaderResearch @VaderResearch]

TLDR on @rewkang’s podcast w/ @APompliano

FIGURE🦿
Andrew came across @Figure_robot deal in 2023

Had no experience investing in Robotics

So asked VC friends for advice

Most were skeptical and told him to pass

VC robotics bets hadn’t produced many winners

US🇺🇸 VS CHINA🇨🇳
Andrew evaluates robotics firms in 3 categories:
1. Manufacturing
2. Hardware design
3. AI capabilities

China is the clear winner in manufacturing

China is leading in hardware design too

US only has Figure/Tesla

China has 100s of diff specialized hardware designs

US has an edge over AI capabilities

AI capabilities are critical cause without brains

Robots are useless

Andrew thinks tech produced ≠ market cap

BYD sells more cars than Tesla

But BYD mcap is 10th of Tesla

US robotics companies offer higher mcap potential

HUMANOIDS VS SPECIALIZED ROBOTS 🤖
Andrew agrees specialized robots are more effective

And their adoption will be earlier than humanoids

Argues that humanoids can be mass produced cheaper

The world is not static so flexibility will be valuable

ROBOTICS TRAINING DATA 🕶️
World models have changed the game

They are trained on internet video data

Despite not as good as teleops/egocentric/sim

They are still very valuable

And there are loads of them online for free

There is still need for egocentric data of specific tasks

But the scale of data needed to be collected is

Lower than expected compared to 9 months ago

JOB DISPLACEMENT 👨‍🔧

Andrew thinks job displacement is real

Cognitive jobs will be displaced by digital AI

Physical jobs will be displaced by physical AI

UBI is not optional but necessary

ROBOSTRATEGY $BOT

OpenAI and Anthropic went nuts in a few years

If you had invested in top AI companies few years ago

You would have outperformed the best seed funds

Same vertical takeoff will happen for robotics

Robostrategy is a publicly trading closed ended VC fund

It is currently trading at a premium to NAV

NAV premium allows them to raise more capital

Via issuing more shares accretively to shareholders

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@VaderResearch @Rewkang @APompliano @Figure_robot The issuing more shares at NAV premiums is an interesting financial concept

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@lucaspatiri_ UGC

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

This would be an interesting episode!

[Andrew Kang @Rewkang]

@Innerdevcrypto Would be down to speak with @lexfridman about where the robotics industry is going and how we’re reshaping the venture capital paradigm

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@Rewkang @RoboStrategy Kudos Andrew, Godspeed

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@jesse_vermeulen Open up a new Claude window

[Claude @claudeai]

Introducing Claude Opus 4.7, our most capable Opus model yet.

It handles long-running tasks with more rigor, follows instructions more precisely, and verifies its own outputs before reporting back.

You can hand off your hardest work with less supervision.

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@mtvmald How did you handle character and voice consistency across the different clips?

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@maxxmalist How do you handle character and voice consistency when you're creating multiple shots?

[Paddy Cosgrave @paddycosgrave]

Here’s more detail on how I think the fuel protestors can be even more strategic and effective.

During the fuel protest, it’s important to know the rich and powerful in Ireland can mostly work from home. They don’t need to be physically present in their offices.

That’s not the case for a great many people. Shutting major roads is more of an inconvenience to workers like nurses and teachers who need to be physically present in classrooms, hospitals etc.

The fuel protestors could be even more effective if they shut key roads in and out of places where the richest and most powerful largely live: D4 and D6, Dalkey, Killiney, and Howth; and then where those people mostly work, D2.

With four tractors alone you could all but blockade Sandymount or Ranelagh, Shrewsbury Road or Kildare Street.

On another front: Major multinational manufacturing plants and parks are dispersed across the country. They are therefore more easily accessible to fuel protestors. Blocking a small number of huge manufacturing sites would disrupt the profits of the most powerful lobby in the ear of the current government: American MNCs. Again, you just need to be strategic and target the very biggest ones.

You could also be a bit French about things and spread slurry on key buildings around Dublin containing lobby groups or organisations most connected to the surge in fuel prices. These might include the American Chamber of Commerce (Wilton Place) and the American Embassy (Ballsbridge) - and of course Shannon Airport which is used for the attacks on Iran by the United States.

By strategically targeting the richest and most powerful, who almost exclusively control the government, you are more likely to win more hearts and minds of nurses, teachers and everyone else in the country.

You also need fewer tractors and trucks to pull it off. And finally by dispersing across the country, as opposed to largely concentrating in one area, it’s even harder for the government to stop it.

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@SineadOS1 That graph is wild.

I've always wondered if the GDP of Ireland has been largely propped up by large multinationals like Apple and Google coming in for tax reasons but the benefits of this only being experienced by a small minority.

Any thoughts on this Sinéad?

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@itsjessyin I've found reading aloud very useful for improving writing. Helps pinpoint parts where the message isn't being properly communicated.

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

Protesters are calling for Ireland's carbon tax to be completely abolished & reduction in fuel prices generally to be more affordable.

Used AI to get a rough idea of where Ireland stand in comparison to other EU countries. Data is AI generated so may not be fully accurate.

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

Serious ruckus unfolding in Ireland with protesters utilizing their vehicles to create gridlocks countrywide, blocking citizens & even oil imports for the past 4 days in a #fuelprotest

Meeting scheduled with the protesters & government today but army & gardai also being deployed

[Nadim Kobeissi @kaepora]

I spent the evening looking into quantum computing timelines as a non-expert in quantum computing. Here is what I’ve learned:

We currently have machines with ~1,000–1,500 physical qubits at error rates around 10⁻³, and Google’s algorithm requires ~500,000 physical qubits operating coherently together with surface code error correction, yoked qubit storage, magic state cultivation producing ~500K T states per second, and reaction-limited execution at 10μs cycle times — none of which has been demonstrated beyond small-scale proof-of-concept experiments.

Scaling from where we are to where this needs to be isn’t a matter of incremental improvement along a Moore’s Law curve; it requires solving qualitatively new engineering problems in qubit fabrication yield, correlated error suppression across a massive chip (or multi-chip interconnects that don’t exist yet), cryogenic wiring and control electronics for half a million qubits, real-time classical decoding at the required throughput, and sustained coherence of a “primed” quantum state across minutes of wall-clock time — any one of which could prove to be a multi-year bottleneck, and all of which must be solved simultaneously.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Given the above, I just don’t see how we’re going to get to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer by 2030, especially given that we need a ~350× increase in physical qubit count with simultaneously tighter error correlations, an entirely new cryogenic control and wiring architecture to address half a million qubits, real-time decoding infrastructure that doesn’t exist yet, magic state distillation factories operating at industrial throughput, and multi-minute coherent idle times for primed states — and historically, solving even one of these at scale has taken the field the better part of a decade.

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

Shoutout to @robertocomer.

Cool to see an Irishman DIY building a hostel out in El Salvador while speaking Spanish and shilling Bitcoin. 🇸🇻🇮🇪

Check out his journey here.

https://t.co/VrGVlcB4vs

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

My attempt to bring a balanced and practical perspective to the quantum computing developments as they relate to Bitcoin.

And I only say "qubits" once!

https://t.co/cTSIFOTnyg

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

@alexdunsdon @nic_carter Yeah pretty juicy odds for the no side

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

I'm not yet fully getting on board with the quantum risk FUD but it definitely would be reassuring to see the major Bitcoin Devs start getting some comprehensive safeguards in place while also getting on the same page for what-if scenarios.

[John Lee Quigley @bitcoinnomadic]

One interesting argument against quantum risk is that Bitcoin is more resilient and adaptable than CeFi.

However, CeFi's advantage is it can have safeguards that it will implement quickly whereas Bitcoin has historically been extremely challenging to upgrade.

[nicolas, 30 ans @nic_carter]

Bitcoin developers are not concerned about quantum risk – with receipts

my latest on substack