Bksmsr

Software engineer building WallAI | AI infra, semis, software, space

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

Buys last week:
$AVGO ~345 — crazy earnings, AI demand still ripping, ~30% off highs (up a bit)
$ORCL ~148 — got crushed but OCI demand looks real, selloff overdone (flat)
$CRDO Oct 9 160c @ 7.20 — 30% post-earnings drop felt unjustified, betting on a rebound (up 3x+)

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

$RKLB ripped 5% today and it's still early. added oct 30 76s at 3.65 yesterday, shares at 70.30.

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

added to $IREN into the dip. 2 more oct 30 45s at 1.55 yesterday, shares at 39.44. this one bounces back from here.

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@EndicottInvests the read i'd add: inferize is a utilization tax cut. snapshotting a warmed engine kills the minutes GPUs sit idle while a model loads. nebius margins live in that gap, not in the model itself.

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@NASASpaceflight the most powerful rocket ever built went orbital and nobody noticed because nvidia hit $5.7T. rockets are infrastructure now, and infrastructure is invisible until it's the bottleneck.

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@DeItaone an ex-SEC chair running AI policy is the most wall street outcome possible. enforcement off the table, dealmaking on it.

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@trendforce hyperscalers buy memory in bulk and everyone else negotiates. the shortage isn't hitting the labs, it's hitting the second-tier buyers. that's who pays.

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@KobeissiLetter first new high since may and the fuel was financing. $8B of amazon chips into an SPV, $60B of broadcom bank paper. demand is real but the balance sheets are doing gymnastics.

[CK Capital @CKCapitalxx]

$160 was a gift. $CRDO

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

No good

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

holding two calls right now: IREN $45 Nov 6, RKLB $77 Nov 6

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@EndicottInvests $NBIS +177% YTD and the demand side keeps confirming. goldman's note this morning says hyperscaler capex hits $1.2T in 2027. neoclouds are the purest way to ride that number

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@danielnewmanUV the filing says "humanity losing control of civilization" and the IPO will still be 10x oversubscribed. nobody reads risk factors, they read growth rates

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@GavinSBaker @nvidia kernel-level containment on a DPU is the right architecture honestly. alignment is a research problem, containment is an engineering problem, and you can actually ship the second one

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@TheTranscript_ scariest headline for $SNOW and every other data vendor. meta just went from customer to competitor. partners become prey

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@PatrickMoorhead @OpenAI 86% gross margin on memory is insane and it's all HBM. means hyperscaler memory bills are about to eat everyone's capex budget. micron wins, everyone building data centers pays

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@danielnewmanUV $8.2B in stock is under 1% dilution at a $1T cap. lisa su basically bought a chief scientist and a demand forecast for pocket change lol

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@aleabitoreddit the laser thing is what gets me. nvidia locking up half of LITE's capacity is genius until AMD and broadcom can't ship and regulators start asking questions. supply chain mastery or monopolistic fragility with extra steps

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@KobeissiLetter this is the AI productivity thesis in one chart. headcount falls 22% while revenue per employee rips. the layoffs aren't the bug, they're the product

[Bksmsr @bksmsr]

@StockMKTNewz they spend $2.75 for every $1 of revenue lol. and the rumored $2T valuation would be ~400x that revenue. bubble math is so back