Blackwater Strategies

[Rayner Teo @Rayner_Teo]

𝐈𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟖, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒&𝐏 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝐩𝐥𝐮𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐝 𝟑𝟕%, 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬.

While everyone else was selling their kidneys to cover margin calls, a small group of traders quietly made a fortune.

* Mulvaney Capital gained 108% (while most fund managers were updating their resumes).

* Dunn Capital returned over +50%.

* Graham Capital finished the year up about +36%.

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐝𝐨 𝐢𝐭?

They weren’t trying to call the bottom, predict the bailout, or outsmart the Fed.

Instead, they were simply following one timeless principle: ride the trend until it ends.

This approach is called Trend Following—a strategy that seeks to profit from sustained moves in the market (in both uptrend and downtrend). The idea behind it is simple: to ride the trend till it ends.

It originated from the commodities market and was made popular by Richard Dennis (and his Turtle Traders).

Today, Trend Following is still a popular trading approach and is even used by billion-dollar hedge funds (like Winton Group, Transtrend, etc.).

𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐅𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤?

There are three main reasons for it…

𝐁𝐞𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐢𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬

If you see the market goes up 5 days in a row, what’s your reaction?
"It's too high! I'm not buying that!"

But then it goes up another 3 days, and suddenly you're hitting that buy button faster than I run when my wife says, “We need to talk”.

And when there's fear? You sell faster than I run away from my kids when they need help with homework.

These behavioural biases cause the market to trend, and that’s how a Trend Follower can profit from it.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧

Hedge funds and institutions move with size. Unlike a retail trader, they can’t just enter a position all at once because they will move the market (which means they get a poor entry price).

So, they will accumulate their positions over weeks and sometimes even months. This buying pressure will push the market higher, and by the time the “big money” completes their buying, the trend is well established, and a Trend Follower will profit from the move.

𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥

Economic cycles lead to things like inflation, bubbles, crises, productivity, bull markets, bear markets, etc. These factors cause fear and greed in the market, which results in both uptrends and downtrends.

As long as these factors exist, you can expect markets to trend.
Next, you need to understand the principles of Trend Following so you can make it work for you...

4 principles of Trend Following

𝟏. 𝐁𝐮𝐲 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 (𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐚)

The principle behind “buy high and sell higher” is that strength tends to beget more strength.

Unlike investors who “buy low and sell high”, Trend Following doesn’t care if something looks expensive or overbought. What matters is that the price is moving in the direction of the trend.

By buying strength, you align yourself with the market’s direction and avoid betting against the market. Think of it as going with the flow, not against it. Like when my wife says we're going shopping and I just nod and prepare my credit card for the beating.

𝟐. 𝐔𝐬𝐞 𝐚 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐬

After you enter a trade, when do you exit?

That’s where a trailing stop loss comes in. It's a dynamic stop loss that follows the price like my kids follow me when I'm trying to eat ice cream in secret. This is the key to cutting your losses and riding your winners.

𝟑. 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬

Here’s the thing: trends don’t happen everywhere at once. By trading many markets, you always have “lottery tickets” spread out across different asset classes—like having multiple dating apps instead of just one.

𝐀𝐥𝐬𝐨, 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬:

Commodities move on supply/demand shocks.
Bonds move with interest rate policies.
Currencies move with capital flows.
Indices move on growth and earnings.

By trading these different asset classes, you benefit from these different sources of trends.

Here’s a real-world case study:

During 2014, the US stock market was choppy. At the same time…
USD had appreciated strongly against EUR and JPY.

Crude oil collapsed from $100 to $40.

Bonds had a major uptrend.

A Trend Follower would have made a killing while stock traders were struggling.

𝟒. 𝐊𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐥

Even though you trade many markets, you’ll still face frequent losses because most of these trades fail to develop into a trend.

That’s why it’s important to cut your losses so you can live to fight another day—unlike my hairline, which fought the good fight but has now retreated permanently.

Trend Following is not about being right often. Rather, it’s about cutting your losses and riding your winners. This way, even with a 40% winning rate (which is common for a Trend Following system), you’re still profitable in the long run.

These four principles form the backbone of Trend Following.

Next up, I'll share with you a trend following system to profit in bull & bear markets...

[HaseebBadar_Stocks @hb_stocks]

A HEDGE FUND MANAGER EXPLAINED POSITION SIZING IN 4 MINUTES BETTER THAN ANY ₹50,000 COURSE EVER COULD.

It came down to one number.
Not the entry. Not the target.

The number you set BEFORE you click buy.

Here's the whole thing 👇

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

Druckenmiller recommends looking out 18-24 months with your investment strategy. The market prices in future expectations, not current reality, so successful investors must anticipate what the market will price in next. $BIDU

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

@MetaMudhaleedu Trisha !

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

@GoshawkTrades Cathy Wood ! From Ark

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

@AshwinBadri2 10 crore position size.

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

The art of making a deal. 👌🏼

@LalitKModi

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

@L1vsun This is not a quant from Two Sigma. This is Jeff Yas, founder of Susquehanna Trading.

[InfoGram @_InfoGram_]

This is absolute cinema 🔥

🇺🇸 Trump at 5:00 PM — "I don't like their letter. It's inappropriate. I don't like their response. I am rejecting Iran's response."

🇮🇷Iran at 5:05 PM 🔥 : We write proposals for Iran's national interest not to please Trump. If Trump's unhappy, that's probably a good sign.🔥

What courage this country has. Trump is completely trapped by Iran's mind games.🔥

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

@_faaaz Around 4 - 5 years ago. We were on an Emirates Flight from Dubai - Chennai. @actorvijay had walked into the aircraft with bags in his hand. An elderly couple upon noticing him got up and greeted him. He kept his bags down and greeted them back. 🙏🏽

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

JPMorgan just published the scariest oil chart I’ve ever seen.
World inventories are in freefall.
And when this line hits 6.8 — the global energy system doesn’t slow down.
It breaks. 🧵

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

@RakJhun Vijay is a huge real estate investor. Not a public markets guy.

[Lunix @SolLunix]

Millionaire trader explains how to let your profits run

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

@tushar9590 He had RSystems too. Has he sold it ? I vividly remember RSystems tanking after his purchase.

[tushar @tushar9590]

Equities are a great hedge to inflation.
Below image is Zimbabwe Stock market Index.

What really happened?

Imagine your money is like ice cream on a hot day – it melts super fast and loses value every week. That's what happened with Zimbabwe's old currency (called ZWL) starting around 2022.

The big problem in 2022: Prices were rising like crazy (hyperinflation).

ZWL notes bought less and less food, clothes, or fuel each month. The exchange rate went from about 120 ZWL for 1 US dollar early in 2022 to over 650 by the end – and it kept getting worse.

People panicked: "My savings are disappearing!"

Why stocks surged "ferociously": Smart people (and big investors) said, "Instead of holding weak ZWL cash, let's buy company shares on the stock market." Why?

Companies own real things like mines, farms, factories, shops, and buildings – stuff that keeps its real value even when money melts.

When everyone rushes to buy the same stocks, the prices shoot up a lot – even if the companies aren't suddenly making way more profit. It was like a protection game against the dying currency.

The old stock index (ZSE All Share) exploded from low levels to over 2.9 million points by April 2024.

It wasn't "real" super growth – it was mostly the weak money making numbers look huge.
Then came the big reset in April 2024: Government launched a new currency called ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold), backed by real gold reserves.

They "rebased" the stock index – basically pressed restart and set it to 100 points. Old crazy numbers were wiped clean so the new system could start fresh.

What happened after? The new ZiG is much more stable.

Inflation dropped dramatically (now just 4% a year – first time in decades!).

Stocks kept climbing but in a healthier way: now around 357 points in April 2026 (that's +84% in one year and over +260% in two years).

Why still going up? Gold prices are high (helps mining companies), more foreign investors are buying in, and people trust the economy a bit more.

Stocks became a safe place for savings again.

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

Iran’s negotiation track is anything but smooth.

A delegation once led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is now facing internal fractures, with hardliners pushing back on the scope of talks. At a critical moment, a message from Ali Khamenei’s inner circle reportedly shut down any discussion on nuclear issues effectively pulling the brakes just as momentum was building.

The question now:

Does this derail a potential breakthrough or is it just posturing before a deal?

Because if negotiations stall, crude stays elevated.

If they align, oil could soften quickly.

Markets aren’t just watching diplomacy.

They’re pricing internal politics.

#crudeoil

[Anderson Cooper 360° @AC360]

Former U.S. hostage negotiator Roger Carstens warns that the Iranians are tougher negotiators than the Russians, the Chinese, and even the Taliban. He says the Iranians often move the goal posts and that "you never really quite get to the end state until the very end."

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

Even the greatest fund managers in the business are chart guys. 🙏🏽

[Michael (Hedge Fund Manager) @HedgeFundFomo]

"Mom, how did we get so rich?"

"Your dad managed billions of dollars in a hedge fund and collected management fees"

"But did the investors outperform the index?"

"Who the fuck cares?"

[Blackwater Strategies @blckwtrglobal]

TVK : A New Voice for Tamil Nadu's Future.

#tvk