$BTC
Interesting...
Historically, 826 Days after the halving has marked the final capitulation phase into the bear market bottom. Following this pivot, it has taken between 70–110 days to put in the major low.
That places the 826 Day pivot on July 6th, meaning the bear market bottom could form in early September.
This wasn't my base case scenario, but if price pushes higher into early July rather than lower, I'd expect this path to play out.
🚨EVERY ALTSEASON STARTED LIKE THIS
Bitcoin dominance peaked in 2017
It peaked again in 2021
Now the exact same crossover is printing in 2026
BIGGEST ALTSEASON IS COMING
This $ETH bottom looks exactly like the $BTC 2022 bottom.
Same weekly RSI bullish divergence.
It took 8 weeks for Bitcoin to Starts it's new Bull Trend.
Ethereum is now at it's 3rd week, 5 more to go.
Book mark this.
Are bear markets getting less severe over time? Percentage-wise, yes, that's been the trend.
86%, 84%, 77%.
Data-wise, no. Unlike cycle tops which show a clear diminishing across nearly all data, cycle bottoms have been very consistent.
Logarithmic MVRV is not at cycle bottom levels. The very accurate and more conservative cycle bottom target of the Realized Market Cap MA, 42.5k, has not been reached.
A move there would be a 66% drop which is still over 10% less than last cycle's bear market.
And again, more aggressive cycle bottom targets like the magic band's low 30k's are not off the table.
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Russell 2000 just hit a new all-time high of 3,000 for the first time in history.
This clearly shows money is rotating from large cap stocks to small caps.
Russell is the biggest indicator for risk assets like Crypto. Historically ETH and altcoins follows Russell 2000 to highs.
$BTC
Based on historical performance, July has typically delivered average returns of around 7–8%.
If these seasonal patterns continue, July could see more green, with August being a red month.
It's either one scenario or the other:
1. A prolonged period of consolidation below $60K before expansion.
2. Quick deviation below $60K followed by expansion.
Both scenarios ultimately lead to the same outcome for $BTC. I don't see any other realistic possibilities playing out besides these two.
$BTC
Remember the dump is not finished yet,
We are gonna get another -20% from here (Low 50s) that's where we are gonna bottom.
I am gonna accumulate as much as I can before the bull run starts.
Easy mode for the markets will be coming soon.
Most of the people are gonna get chopped off before the real run starts.
Make sure you are not one of them.
LOWER BEFORE HIGHER.