Bri🅰️n L

My opinions - Open to others'

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@Spearo35 @elonmusk @ATT @Verizon @TMobile @AST_SpaceMobile I don’t think AST has to do this, but the big 3 should - I know they have a strategy, but the perception seems to be they are on defense- meanwhile SpaceX doesn’t have a viable product yet but the market cap of T, VZ, and TMUS taking a big hit

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

This is becoming too easy for @elonmusk - all he has to do is say he gunning for the big 3 mobile carriers and they ignore it or hide - hence Musk controls the narrative. @ATT @Verizon @TMobile need to get back on offense and let people know that the big 3 plus @AST_SpaceMobile $ASTS have a much better product - terrestrial and in space!

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

Great write-up by @Jagaloon6
Indeed $ASTS did not get nuked! They keep reaching new milestones, even if they are a few months off *with space companies a few months is nothing. Even @SpaceX misses timelines e.g. Starship. Investors that let fear and not reason dictate their buy/sell decisions end up losing or missing out. Seems crazy giving up when commercial service is right on the horizon 🌎

[Jagaloon @Jagaloon6]

Looking at $asts stock price, you would have thought their facility got nuked or something. Let’s breakdown the space x transaction. On paper, ast lost out to space x on this grain transaction. There’s no other way of saying that and it’s a fact. Kudos to space x- they now have access to low and mid-band spectrum, so they have the ingredients to start competing directly with MNO’s now.

What are the implications? Ast and space x are increasingly now approaching this connectivity problem in a completely different manner. Space x is going completely vertically integrated, direct to consumer. It is safe to assume with this transaction, MNO partnerships will be far and in between moving forward. Ast meanwhile has always been B2B, via partnerships with the MNO’s. They are becoming less and less of direct competitors via their business models.

Implications for ast? As with other things, yet again this is another event that helps pull their opportunity forward. If ast were in talks with T-mobile, deutche telecom, those talks just became a much higher priority and the likelihood of a deal happening sooner just significantly went up. It was also inevitable that satellite plans would get baked into cellular plans, but now that offering is pulled forward with starlink. If you’re an MNO, you now have to offer a majority of your plans with satellite, otherwise you risk losing your customer to space x. Yet again, the intrinsic value of ast just got higher. They are now a keystone species for telecom- ast’s success will be directly correlated with customer retention for the MNO’s. Also, grain has 14mhz of low band spectrum-the MNO have 1000mhz of low& mid band spectrum combined between them. The odds are much higher now that ast will have more access to it moving foward, if mno's have any sense of self-preservation.

From a fiscal standpoint, I have always trusted the company and never questioned when they raised capital. Perhaps some of the most recent raise could have been in plans for grain- instead, they are now sitting on a warchest so they can ride out the volatility until rates stabilize and macro improves. One less headache to think about.

It’s always been this narrative that any news with space x causes ast to go down. Unfortunately, it still seems analyst coverage on ast still has room for improvement. It’s a Friday- if you’re an institution and you don’t really understand what the hell is going on, you have to sell first and ask questions later. You cant afford to be late or sit on sidelines- this is the Wall street way. I fully expect in the coming weeks that the market will realize that they got this wrong, much like with the echostar transaction a while ago and should result in net buying later.

The risk/reward of owning ast has never been better. I’ve been an owner since 2021 so quite frankly, this is just a flesh wound-the company has been through way worse and got through the valley of death. The thesis is intact, the TAM keeps expanding, and the strategic value of ast continues to exponentially rise. If you can ride out the volatility, the stock will reward those that are able to sift out the noise

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@thekookreport @AlexfromBabylon @CytoplasmicANA @grok @grok you’re overthinking this - the answer to the question “can vsat build a dtd constellation that can compete with ASTS”. Answer is “Hell No”. Easiest analysis you will ever get!

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

One of the main points @BRileyFinancial Mike Crawford's reason for the @AST_SpaceMobile downgrade today, is perceived price competition from the "paper sat" company / JV Equatys.

So we are to believe that a JV that doesn't have scaled manufacturing, finalized hardware prototypes, or the extensive regulatory approvals/interference clearances that ASTS spent years securing, is going to price cut AST on direct to device?
This sounds more like recent AST price action is driving B Riley's ratings - IMO establishing a rating by chasing price action rather than forecasting it, is just lazy.

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

Great insight and explanation from @tottaway22 on current BB manufacturing status, predictions on timelines, and progress in process improvements by @AST_SpaceMobile . This is a a great thread to read, especially if you don’t have a manufacturing background like me.

[Tanner Kirk Ottaway @tottaway22]

Let’s dissect the $ASTS BB14-16 shipping video frame by frame because I have a mental problem….

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

Nice play by play @ToadSomm on why $ASTS investors should discount criticism from legacy self proclaimed space consultants. As the SpaceMob “in house” expert @CatSE___ApeX___ has predicted and now confirmed by @AbelAvellan BB11 unfolded and is alive and well.
I have no problem with critical thinking and laying out concerns - what I do have a problem with is legacy folks spreading FUD on purpose, which could cause people that are invested to lose money. That type of misinformation is completely unethical, and these people need to be called out!

[Toad Sommelier @ToadSomm]

$ASTS $VSAT now that BB11 is unfolded let’s look at takes from the ‘experienced professional space industry consultant’ (imagine typing this). Stew, like viasat, is a dinosaur who doesn’t adapt or do his own work, much like VSAT doesn’t build their own sats

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@AbelAvellan

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

BB 14, 15, 16! Going up - fantastic news $ASTS Beta service just months away, and then commercial 🙌 .

[AST SpaceMobile @AST_SpaceMobile]

Another convoy is on the move.

BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 have left our Texas facility and are on the road to Cape Canaveral.

Next stop: orbit. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

The largest commercial communications arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit. A scalable platform to deliver space-based cellular broadband connectivity directly to standard phones, support secure government applications, and deliver a new third layer of connectivity.

In Midland, Texas, production continues to advance through BlueBird 50, with more than 20 spacecraft structures now being integrated as part of our assembly process.

One constellation. Connectivity. Resilience. Security. Built in Texas. 🇺🇸🌎📶📱

#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

Basket trades and manipulation- there is one thing to provide liquidity, but when you see this day in and day out, clear manipulation!

[Tut C🅰️pital @kingtutcap]

Gotta love when all the “human” investors decide to sell their space stocks exactly at 9:30am

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@thekookreport

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

INSIDER BUYING AT $ASTS

I already have high conviction in $ASTS and their mission to “connect the unconnected”, and as a major disruptor in the wireless industry. Nice to see long time @AST_SpaceMobile director @cisnerosadriana Adriana Cisneros purchasing additional shares on the open market - adds to my confidence in my investment thesis. In this environment, seeing these signals decreases any “second guessing”.
Insiders sell shares for many reasons, but they buy shares for one reason only! (stock is undervalued and going up)

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@spacanpanman it’s beautiful

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@AST_SpaceMobile @2degreesmobile Now that’s exciting stuff! Keep moving forward and thanks for the update!

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@thekookreport

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@AbelAvellan With this cadence - AST will have beta and then full commercial service up in no time! Great work @AbelAvellan @scottwisniews and the whole $ASTS team!

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@scottwisniews Let’s go Scott! Get those birds in orbit… Looks like you’re well rested 😄

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@spacanpanman Wow pretty soon the majority of these positions will be underwater!

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

@AST_SpaceMobile Guinness record - largest com satellites!
Wow - a sight to see!
@AST_SpaceMobile knows Size Matters!
$ASTS @Starlink

[Bri🅰️n L @bluce111]

How the market is not already pricing in this huge win (Japan’s JLEO $1B contract with @Rakuten ) for $ASTS , is crazy!
Anyone in the market the last month can clearly see the market has NOT been efficient and rational.
@AST_SpaceMobile and Rakuten were awarded the JLEO contract under the RAST JV. I guess the market is waiting for the PR’s and more details before pricing it in? $1B win! my guess is one day soon the market stops panicking about AI names and realizes it missed this, and re-rates ASTS! Just sayin 🙌

[Takae in Space🚀✨🌍🔭 @TS86142]

https://t.co/btAiSYnLQY