Monsoon 2026 has reached Kerala — but it arrives under a cloud of uncertainty.
The onset was delayed, El Niño conditions are building, and IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% chance of a deficient season.
The months ahead could bring drought risks, uneven rainfall and extreme weather across parts of India, Akshit Sangomla (@bluewrit) writes
https://t.co/qibTraomXK
▶️The India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its prediction for the rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season on May 29, 2026, to 90 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
▶️There is a 60 per cent chance of a deficient SWM season which could mean many regions undergoing much drier than normal conditions or even droughts.
▶️Below normal rainfall in June and heightened temperatures could lead to above normal heatwaves over many regions in the country
🖊️ @bluewrit
https://t.co/c5bI2hhpgy
There is also a 75 per cent chance that the five-year average global temperature for 2026-2030 may also cross 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. @bluewrit
Global temperatures at or near record levels for next 5 years: WMO
One of the years between 2026 and 2030 is also highly likely to temporarily cross the global annual average anomaly threshold of 1.5°C
🖊️ @bluewrit
https://t.co/4w8btsUhi6
Spring heatwaves in the United Kingdom and Western Europe break records
A ‘heat dome’, currently stationed over the continent, is responsible say scientists; climate change the root cause, they say
🖊️ @bluewrit
https://t.co/t5OwJDuA70
This was recorded today around 9 PM in Delhi. The temperature is 32.5°C with 45.8% humidity and a dew point of 19.3°C.
This means that the city is no longer cooling down at night.
Both the humidity and dew point make the heat feel much more uncomfortable. The feels like temperature would be around 36-38°C.
Now, think about outdoor workers..construction workers, street vendors, delivery wrkers, sanitation workers, and people living in tin roof homes with poor ventilation.
Their bodies, which have already spent the entire day exposed to extremes heat without any cooling, never get to recover.
The heatwave has now become a public health and urban planning crisis.
Picture @vichitrvichar
The 2026 El Niño is developing unusually fast — and it may rival the strongest ever recorded.
NOAA says there is now an 82% chance of El Niño developing between May and July, with early projections suggesting the Pacific warming event could intensify into a very strong event by the end of the year.
Some forecasts show echoes of the devastating 1876-78 El Niño, which contributed to severe global droughts and famine.
This time, the event is unfolding in a world already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions — raising fears of extreme heat, droughts, wildfires, coral bleaching and pressure on food and health systems.
https://t.co/vSSNLIbHjT
Story by @bluewrit, visual by @PulahaRoy
The much-awaited southwest monsoon season arrived over south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16 and is scheduled to arrive over Kerala by May 26, according to the India Meteorological Department
🖊️ @bluewrit
https://t.co/84nWLhaZAg
📽️ India was expected to face an intense heatwave summer in 2026. Instead, many regions are seeing cooler temperatures, thunderstorms, hailstorms, and excess rainfall. Watch to learn what caused this dramatic shift.
https://t.co/dwrwA893Lo
The devastating storms in Uttar Pradesh on May 13 and May 14 that have killed more than 117 people were caused by the interaction of multiple weather systems with wind speeds similar to very severe cyclones in some of the affected areas
🖊️ @bluewrit
https://t.co/flULga6UeK
Heatwaves have become a feature of summers in some regions. However, they are not the only story, neither the main one. It is important to understand trends like the one explained here because it points to issues like weather becoming less predictable
https://t.co/kfck0xRB9j
Why India’s summer isn’t as hot as expected?
India was expected to face an intense heatwave summer in 2026. Instead, many regions are seeing cooler temperatures, thunderstorms, hailstorms, and excess rainfall. What caused this dramatic shift?
In this video, Down To Earth's @bluewrit explains the multiple weather systems shaping India’s unusual summer: from western disturbances and cyclonic circulations to the possible influence of El Niño and the approaching monsoon.
Watch the full video now: https://t.co/4gxWvnWwXx
More than 150 million hectares of land burned globally between January and April 2026, the highest figure on record for the period, according to @WWAttribution, with Africa and Asia hardest hit.
Scientists warn a developing El Niño, rising temperatures and drier conditions could fuel even larger fires, worsen air pollution and threaten global health, explains @bluewrit
https://t.co/mbQHrLIbol
Every day, Chennai generates more than 6,000 tonnes of waste. Not all of it is collected.
Plastic waste travels through the city’s waterways — including the Adyar, Cooum, Buckingham Canal and stormwater drains — directly into the Bay of Bengal.
Floods over the years have exposed the scale of the problem, with hundreds of tonnes of plastic removed from water bodies after extreme rainfall events. But can this cycle be stopped before the plastic reaches the ocean?
Watch the film to understand how people are trying to mitigate the crisis: https://t.co/IRH5uPlAwI
More videos on marine litter crisis and solutions: https://t.co/08TrEO6ub1
@bluewrit
Super El Niño: Why is there such a hue and cry about it this time? Down To Earth's Akshit Sangomla (@bluewrit) explains. Watch the full video here: https://t.co/hNj1pjwUBe
@down2earthindia
Why is May cool? Varied weather systems have been active over India or the surrounding seas this month
With a Super El Nino on the way, weather over India could only become more complex and difficult to predict
🖊️ @bluewrit
https://t.co/efynefIlLh
April 2026 witnessed second-highest sea surface temperatures; reflects transition to El Niño conditions, say experts https://t.co/fD5JIlY6z8
🖊️ @bluewrit
A CSE Live Chat on the Year of the Super El Niño
This summer will be brutal, say experts. As temperatures keep soaring across India, climate scientists are warning of a Super El Nino forming in the Pacific -- a rare, high intensity event that could reshape global weather patterns.
For India, this could mean serious trouble. Historically, El Nino events are closely linked to weaker monsoons, rising temperatures and increased risk of drought. With 2026 predicted to be one of the hottest years on record, our water resources are expected to be under severe stress.
Join @sukanyanair3007 for a conversation with @bluewrit of @down2earthindia as we bring you another Live Chat to mark our Water Campaign. Up for discussion would be issues like how exactly would the Super El Nino impact our water resources.
Tap the 🔔 bell icon to get notified when we go live: https://t.co/aBj4RvwycU