@JuneGoh_Sparta I know ! I love your background. I'm also a former Shell refining process engineer & oil trader. Almost every disruption event of the past 10 years was resolved very quickly. This will be no different. The laden ships will move, prodn will return fast, etc.
@ALikhodedov@AyusoValue Was April his last update? Everyone has changed their view a fewtimes. Presumably he didn't just change from bullish to bearish.
@Big_Orrin Aggressive day trading is a small aspect of it. The physical market would have found higher fair value already regardless of futures. A high Volume / OI ratio can distort FV for a while but not for months on.
@SpartaCommo Yes. Demand loss is already large. The number of experts saying it's not happening until $120 or $150 Brent is surprising, or maybe it shouldn't be surprising. Also, who knew their were thousands of tank farm experts just waiting to shine.
Looking at underresearched assets is a good idea & if you are day trading or trading around earnings, you are probably the sucker. But nothing says you can't do detailed analysis on megacaps & see if your FV plays out. Over the long run, 45% of small caps have catastrophic declines in their share price - 70% to full bankruptcy.
@unseen1_unseen@BrennanHiggins@unseen1_unseen - your post sounds right but it's not. permitting data, wells drilled, fracs, and distance drilled, and most importantly production data say otherwise. The numbers are all there and easy to get, use them. Who is Pres hasn't mattered for a while on this.
@kingofcrude I thought Treasury said they are not doing that? And the head of CME told them it's a terrible idea. Are they being crafty with the wording of their intentions to leave a loophole to sell into strength?
@vicmackey24@ThaBolder@aakashgupta AI is still a long long way from actually being able to think. This research partially explains why. To discount that is folly.