Brad Watson

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @AlanMCole The 2016 "nowcast" had Hawaii, for example, as being way way too likely to go R. Memory was like 0.5 percent chance when should have been many times less likely than that.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @jaycost @aei_STpodcast 4) looking forward you may be giving very few joint A's! None so far, and can only imagine POSSIBLE (though unlikely some cases) A's given by you for: TR, Coolidge, FDR (prob S), Eisenhower, Reagan, HW. Also seems you might like Ford more than consensus.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @jaycost @aei_STpodcast 3) Harrison: I may be wrong, but I actually think (bizarrely) the legislation making both N and S Dakota states was done under Cleveland, which would mitigate his partisanship a little if I am right. I would rank him higher, and credit McKinley also, because of HI.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@_fat_ugly_rat_ @DHNguyen01 How close is that ok district in ok county?

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @jaycost @aei_STpodcast Nice! (And meant B for Harrison, not Hayes)

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@davidshor @BetterScotus @SeanTrende In what recent years did Rs win the House, where they wouldn't have under your preferred reforms?

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @jaycost And Van Buren: I blame for: censoring abolitionists, Amistad, carrying out Trail of Tears, his bank policies, presiding over great depression of 19th century, seminole war, rejecting TX. As president, no obvious counter-balancing accomplishments. So I argue F Tier.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @jaycost Appreciate response! Pierce, I just choose be maximally harsh for Kansas-Nebraska (like you w adams and sedition). Jefferson: think you are averaging something like a .350 batting average in first term and .200 in second. While I average 475 and .225 to get still great .350 BA

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende 4) thought you made case for lower grade for jq adams than you gave 5) would put both Van Buren and Pierce in the F tier. Buchanan, Pierce, Van Buren 3 worst presidents, that order, IMHO. 6) think Tyler's importance is pretty underrated, given his role in Texas admission.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende Great episode. Thoughts: 1) Think John Adams deserves more credit for Marshall appointment. 2) Jefferson is S Tier for LA Purchase. As much credit as he gets for that, he is still not getting enough imo. 3) I'd give Monroe an A, mostly for Adams-Onis.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @Hollywi81 @IndyVoter2 @jaycost That is great.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende i feel that way about current rankings also.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@_fat_ugly_rat_ 2000s compared to 90s?

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @ptonlaw Also your point about the D Senate majority made me look up the 34 senate election results. Wow!

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@SeanTrende @ptonlaw Honestly I feel like one of the underexplained issues of American history is why the filibuster did not stop a lot more legislation prior to the 1990s.

[Brad Watson @bradewatson]

@myster_E_23 Honestly 2022 also.