I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.
A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.
11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵
1. Survivorship Bias:
@tsxman Did they pay full cash value for the March acquisitions? I have a $130MM funding gap $GO.U given equity was raised at $10 per share and the said consideration was paid at NAV per share.
@tsxman $MRC is dirt cheap. 5x FFO. Good assets mainly stabilized residential. Nice chart. At some point its taken private or re-rates. 1 year or 10 years. But too cheap to ignore.
@LoveMy7Wood@Rogers@TELUS@TD_Canada This is Canada’s silent productivity killer. It’s a part time job managing through terrible customer service and wait times from all public and private providers.
@tsxman $AX.UN Canadian banks can print money especially if they can raise cheap capital. Selling mediocre real estate, while reducing share count should be a winning combination if the bank can grow at anywhere near what they projected.
@KilconaVC@ShaziGoalie@ronmortgageguy $AX.TO Fund liquidations/forced selling creates a long term buying opportunity if ~10%-12% cap for the office assets. Hate the current lack of disclosure but RFA are sharp investors and an agree w/ @ronmortgageguy its a big upgrade in asset quality for investors who hang on
@NonObviously Can $hr.un potential acquirer sell (or slowly liquidate) the office assets? Office market is better but that’s a lot of risk for any group to take unless at deeply discounted prices. That said market is improving by the day.
@joshlacey33 @TidefallCapital Respectfully I don’t pay too much attention to the projections from VL. It’s a great snapshot at a point in time. There has been material historical growth and cashflow, a low PE, and share reductions. There seems to be good downside protection. Time will tell.
@NonObviously@CDInewsletter Will now be in the quiet period. Would like to see if NCIB purchases continue (assuming they can under the AA. Good sign if they do but either way would prefer the banking assets to the existing office assets.