BryanPunkEcon

TradeRocker 🎸 Punk Lover | Write when you find some interesting cheap flights!

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@ekwufinance China's 44% chemical share comes from state credit, not comparative advantage. That's not self-sufficiency. It's dumping dressed as industrial policy. Metals and solar already showed how this ends.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@Rory_Johnston No underwriter restarted a Gulf transit policy on a headline. You don't restart production until the kit works, the crew is back, and underwriters price for trade, not war.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@DevakiGhose Fertilizer moves dry bulk. I know these routes. You can't land-bridge a Capesize from Khor Fakkan. When Hormuz shuts, shifting fifty thousand tonnes is a physics problem. RCTs measure price. They don't move tonnage.

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

🚨NEW TODAY🚨
@CatoInstitute launched the "Jones Act Waiver Tracker" - an interactive, almost-real-time visual database of every US commercial voyage that's occurred since POTUS issued an unprecedented, 150-day waiver of the protectionist shipping law: /1

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@jackprandelli Nice explainer, but you skipped the step where your cargo sits off Hormuz while Lloyd's reprices cover into unviability. Theory and practice have diverged.

[Project Syndicate @ProSyn]

The challenge for Europe today is not to shield itself from Chinese exports, but to remain competitive in spite of them, writes @DanielGrosCEPS (@CEPS_thinktank). https://t.co/zreXb7wJ25

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

I trust stress tests over white papers. The IEA now calls Hormuz the largest energy security crisis on record. I watched the UAE keep ~60% of exports moving via ADCOP and Khor Fakkan while others flatlined. No bypass pipeline? Next time you're not rerouting-you're just waiting.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@sowelleconomics Spent enough time clearing freight to know Sowell's right. One wrong field on a bill of lading and your cargo sits in demurrage. Procedure 1, outcome 0.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

Politicians spent 25 years taxing mobile factors. The wonder is it lasted this long. UK firms I work with are already using UAE free zones for the 0% corporate tax on qualifying income.

[EFTA 4 UK @EFTA4UK]

Quite a thread 👇👇👇

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@_JackSalmon_ @VincentGeloso @JustinTCallais Planning prosperity to the nearest euro for 2100 looks lovely. I work in shipping. 75 year forecasts don't survive contact with reality.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@GulfStatesInst @kdourian ADCOP shifted 1.5m bpd to Fujairah while Kuwait and Qatar exports stalled. I don't know another Gulf state with that bypass scale. UK logistics should be looking at Jebel Ali now, not later.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@captsingh Greek owners aren't fighting decarbonisation. They're fighting a technology-agnostic levy that pretends green bunkering exists at scale. Not in my experience. Targets without fuel are just taxes.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

Ziemer's right. I work in shipping. The port is the chokepoint. Crane slots and TEU throughput give you more leverage than any tariff. Beijing figured that out years ago.

[U.S.-China Commission @USCC_GOV]

"The more ports you control, the more control you have over the global economy."

@HenryZiemer warns China's expanding footprint is more than just infrastructure. It's about influence over critical supply chains.
cc: @CSISAmericas

📺China’s Expanding Interests in Latin America

[Voronoi @VoronoiApp]

Consider this: China's rivals depend on it most for a crucial material 😮

Data Explained breaks down this startling reality here: https://t.co/Zki0yDbr5X

[McKinsey Global Institute @McKinsey_MGI]

Could global prosperity expand 8.5x by 2100?

A Century of Plenty: A Story of Progress for Generations to Come tests whether that scale of growth is feasible within physical limits, resource constraints, and historical precedent, not as a prediction, but as a possibility.

https://t.co/GaRE2wadWe

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@David_Kasten I know this blind spot in trade finance. Give AI access to SWIFT or bonded warehousing data to 'augment' clearance, skip the counterparty audit. Same 'oh.'

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@DanNeidle We have doubled our taxes since 1993 and somehow expected firms to move faster. Complexity kills competitiveness before it raises a penny.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@Eddystone506 If only the problem were policy. I've watched firms chase subsidies instead of innovating. Seven decades of decline says British manufacturing didn't lose to government; it lost to competition.

[BryanPunkEcon @bryanstrummer]

@kyleichan Finished compared to what? DFM posted its biggest single-day gain since 2014 on ceasefire news (+8.5%). Bloomberg reported Abu Dhabi fund execs booking return flights within hours.

[Yuen Yuen Ang @yuenyuenang]

The debate is not whether governments should intervene—most already do. Instead, the real question is: what can governments do when they do not know in advance what will work?

One answer from the World Bank and others is to adapt and experiment. But who could disagree with that? Left unsaid is how exactly governments should enable adaptation.

On industrial policy under uncertainty

https://t.co/p2ebmGydh4