Barbarian1994

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

@AuditTheHerd Couldn’t agree more. The questioning was woeful. It was a good indicator of how poorly understood the drivers of this business are, or how little analyst headspace it attracts.

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

@weary_centurion @bjmtweets @bjmtweets - You claim that ads are within your “circle of competence” but have a strange affinity for presenting google trends data. It’s lazy and misleading at best. FWIW I’d be surprised if IL Mak CAC issue is resolved - but not deduced from this 💩

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

@CalumLewis @mcdudek13 Yes - looks to be redemption pressure due to poor recent performance

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

Added two new small positions in $KOPN ($4.89) and $PATH ($9.46). I traded Path last time it hit $9.40, selling after it retraced to $10.50. I personally think it’s undervalued but will take more than a strong quarter to change perceptions…

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

Great to see $OUST getting the attention it deserves today. With 1.2k shares at $26.50 it’s my second largest position behind $ODD. Plenty more upside potential from here with REV8.

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

There’s plenty to like about this business over the next couple of FYs but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more volatility until an irrefutable narrative breaks through. NFA.

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

$ODD - Next earnings will be interesting. I’ve probably seen less evidence than hoped that the advertising dislocation at Il Makiage has been resolved.

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

There’s a lot of addressable market for Spoiled Child to go for and penetration outside the US looks to be <3% vs ~35% for Il Makiage. I doubt outside of core US has been a focus area yet.

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

@2147mill This is misleading & far more nuanced than you make out. For example:

A LISA isn’t always a win (withdrawal penalties, £450k London cap on property, higher-rate get 40% relief on pension vs 25% LISA).

The right path depends on income, goals, tax band, and flexibility needs…

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

$ODD - We heard on the last earnings call that the launch of MethodIQ had been encouraging. Oddity do seem to have the formula for rapid D2C brand acceleration nailed given the latest SEMrush traffic data:

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

6/ In any case, this is not a reset and search interest is not down 50-70% in March 😂 NFA!

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

1/ Another poor take on $ODD. Thousands of followers but a wild take on flawed data. Here’s what’s actually happening👇

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

🚨 $ODD investors, look at Google Trends 🚨

Ads have not been fixed. Search interest is down 50-70% this March.

They are back to square one, needing new ad campaigns, which will naturally not convert as well as a "free product"

Red line is March 15.

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

5/ Spoiled Child keywords also point to recovery but with more volatility. Discovery is back, but less consistent. CAC likely improved from peak, though not yet fully back at prior efficiency.

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

@weary_centurion You’re welcome. This is all from a 7 day free trial but I have also used it to diligence businesses for work.

It’s disproportionately valuable for D2C brands!

[Barbarian1994 @BT3551994]

1/ $ODD - The advertising traffic dislocation that resulted in a market sell-off may be resolving.

New data suggests stabilisation with traffic past previous highs.

Here’s what the SEMrush estimated data says 👇