Bernard

Interested in all matters (and markets) related to financial markets. Often wrong and always in doubt.

[Bernard @btam33]

@VolatilityQ Sorry for your loss :(

[Bernard @btam33]

@WarrenPies You are always very lucid, totally agree

[Bernard @btam33]

@macrokurd The Brazilian hedge industry (macro multi strat) has shrunk 67% (yes that's correct) from the highs of 2022. So....

[Whitney Baker @TotemMacro]

They must not expand base money to deal with a dollar funding squeeze caused by a) collapsing trade; b) a recessionary credit impulse; c) fiscal austerity; and of course, 4) acute oil squeeze on both real economy spending and asset flows. To be clear, the oil squeeze is biblical, but all of the below would've happened exactly now regardless of war or no war. There was already enough brewing to cause this.

These aligned forces are why the market is weak, yields are blowing out, vix and spreads are rising, yields are backing up in a bear flattener, the basis spread is blowing out, cross-currency swaps are moving, and the dollar is rising. They need to let this happen.

They have lost the reserve currency luxury of being able to ease into recessions and bear markets. They have lost it because they have caused their biggest creditors to blow up financially (and now in many cases literally). They are now up against a global sudden stop in capital flows, prompted by a physical energy squeeze and a related collase in both global demand and global current account surpluses. This squeeze will cause accelerating selling of US assets by foreigners. They must not accomodate that dollar pressure by easing, or it will create a self-reinforcing spiral of currency weakness and inflation. They have put themselves in this position.

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks about a credit bubble that has started to deflate. There's more than a few credit cockroaches. But nobody thinks the US economy is sliding into recession. The Maestro urges stoicism. Nobody knows what’s going to happen in the Middle East, central banks cant really alter the outcome, so its best to provide stability – by doing nothing.

[Bernard @btam33]

@fede_machado_b ¿Cuánto de eso se debe a la venta de futuros y la compra al spot? Y si realmente está comprando neto, ¿no debería ser menor el diferencial entre CCL y Mayorista?

[Bernard @btam33]

@MEPPonPM @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket What? I dont think that they'll use but you really think that Israel dont haver nuclears? Dimona is what?

[Bernard @btam33]

@SpencerHakimian Nonsense, Trump talked badly about Brazil at this exact time 1:30 PM ET

[Bernard @btam33]

@BankofVol Reactive

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

Pleased to find my bond book got recommended but annoyed that the docdroid links are dead. It's now on gdrive and link on my bio. At some point it'll get a 2nd Ed. and I'll maybe self-pub on Amazon but in the meantime here's the link. Enjoy, pls share.
https://t.co/ped7TfTrns

[Bernard @btam33]

@MacrostratPB Some estimates for Core PCE from the sell side:

Citi 0.27
JPM 0.31
Nomura 0.32
MS 0.32
Drax 0.35

[Bernard @btam33]

@omshanti08 I find it interesting that he has threatened tariffs on basically everyone but China! Also, I'm curious to see Orange reaction to stocks going down when he imposes the tariffs.

[Whitney Baker @TotemMacro]

There’s nothing inherently bad about deflation. It was demonized by ruling & rentier classes to justify the depeg from gold, so they could print, spend, entrench power & graft. Pre-democracy they used printed money for military conquest, post-democracy they use it to buy votes.

[Bernard @btam33]

@TotemMacro I never agreed with the debt deflation theory of Fisher in college. Eventually the invisible hand appears but just my 2c.

[Bernard @btam33]

@darioperkins And It is credible to tight in the third year? Or should we put much more weight to the first year? I would put much more tô the first year.

[Bernard @btam33]

@darioperkins Maybe we have arrived at a level of Debt/GDP that the market is simply not willing to finance anymore. And to be honest although there is tightnening it is less than before and you know that markets look a lot at the margin.

[John Comiskey @Johncomiskey77]

For the record, my QRA borrowing estimates call

Dec 543b – Fiscal Deficit 654b + 75bQT -186EOQ TGA fall

Mar 940b – Fiscal Deficit 715b + 75bQT +150EOQ TGA rise

Assumed EoQ TGA Levels of

Dec – 700b

Mar – 850b

Full explanation in my article (see pinned post)

[Bernard @btam33]

Something to always remember

[Suitedupwook @suitedupwook]

biggest mistake anyone can make right now is try to "make back" what they had on paper before

if you actively manage your money you cannot ever think about "getting it back" or "what if i did xyz". those are traps

worst bias ever is loss aversion DO NOT DO IT

[Bernard @btam33]

@PntOptions You too good weekend!

[Bernard @btam33]

@VolSignals ES 5377