Alex

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@DarioCpx Nice part is they have 2 full days to ponder the inevitable. Like the dinosaurs looking up and seeing the asteroid coming but not being able to do anything about it.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@GestaltU And market front running their front running by dumping is chef's kiss.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@DonMiami3 Donald Mugabe 🤣

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@zerohedge Bottleneck more like the gaping chasm.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@__paleologo Don't get drunk on the kool aid.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@negligible_cap But Andrew Left is going to jail...

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@ACapitalLP Damodaran's merit is that he shows first hand just how asinine DCF thinking is. Sadly, instead of walking away with the knowledge that DCF is astrology for finbros, people who pay attention to him tend to get sucked up in the cult of reading future cash flow tea leaves.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@evrgn11112231 He's a clown.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@CapitalObserver Fair price for cyclical peak earnings is about 6x. In reality 6x is probably too generous for estimates. It's more likely than not that demand slows even before 2029, as there has been zero evidence so far that LLMs are any closer to profitability. 18x estimates is lunacy.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@profplum99 Even so, if we accept that trading is not a requirement, it becomes difficult to disentangle if price has moved due to implicit consensus or due to market inelasticity. This is where slapping a 20x multiple on volume gets murky.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@Polymarket Andrew Left gets sent to jail for shorting a bunch of shitcos, but Goldman pumping trash to retail with horrendously fake "forecasts" is totally fine. The golden age of grift.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@RealJimChanos 3 Trillion well spent

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@Divergent7651 Falling knife AND valued at 10% of assets? Good luck.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@edzitron Lucky for them they don't care about investors. They just need to keep the circus going until IPO so they can dump on grandma's 401k. After VC & insiders get their bag this entire AI sham will unwind with the speed of light.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@atelicinvest I expect the first talks of cutting back capex spending will start late 26, after Elon, Altman and Amodei are done dumping on retail.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@Ross__Hendricks Ironically, if they pull capex spending fast enough, the hyperscalers will be the ones who will get out of this entire fiasco with the least amount of scars.

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@Ross__Hendricks My favorite will be when all the spending "agreements" get rescinded and suddenly people will find out that semis are indeed still cyclical. Gonna be a loooong way down for Nvidia, Micron & Co

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@the_green_lark https://t.co/buWr6VQjFk

[Alex @buffetsalpha]

@the_green_lark It's mostly a mirage. It goes away when you control for profitability/quality. It looks like there's something there because there's massive correlation between highest vol decile and the worst junk microcaps with no profits, heavy diluters etc.