Bullish Dumpling

Crypto was the starting point, not the destination. Investing real money, changing my mind often, and writing about markets, technology and the evolution of fin

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

At @CML_LDN London, I joined Andy Ross, Head of Institutional Business at @Kalshi , alongside speakers from Wincent, Block Scholes and Cauldron, to discuss the future of prediction markets.

My bull case is that prediction markets can evolve into information infrastructure and real-time sentiment sensors.

But not every headline probability should be treated as equally meaningful.

Market depth, insider information and resolution quality are key factors to consider.

Before trusting the odds, ask:

Who is trading?
How deep is the market?
How easily can the price be moved?
Who determines the final outcome?

#predictionmarkets

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@sz8ng 精神满腹！

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@ShanghaoJin prolly the latter

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

这个牛市，我暂定几条最高原则, 但会随市场变化调整。

一，宁愿少赚，不追高，
牛市永远有回调，踏空比套牢好

二，仓位管理优先， 舍得及时止损
币圈不是美股，很多东西没有基本面，跌了就回不来

三，分阶段做，牛市第一阶段以资本积累为主
比特币是核心，等基础资本做起来以后，再逐步往高风险玩法走。

不过还是边走边学，灵活调整。这轮估计会有很多传统金融 X 加密的新玩法

四，被黑客整怕了。
绝大多数持仓只炒作价格，放在不同的交易所，钱包，深入了解他们背后的托管方，分散；

甚至考虑IB这样的传统股票券商，直接买ETF完事，吃个价格暴露。

先活下来，把资本做大，再推高收益率

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@rickawsb 你说出了我最近矛盾的心路历程

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

1. 投资能力最终体现为收益的不对称性。 单看收益并不能说明做得有多好；关键还要追问：为了取得这份收益，承担了多少风险？
2. 波动性本身不是风险，价格起伏是表象，本金永久亏损的可能性才是核心。
3. 风险具有反直觉，反常和欺骗性。

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

“比特币是不是见底了”？这个问题不重要

BTC在中期选举年下半年开始定投，本身就是一个风险收益很好的时间窗口

而且就算比特币已经见底，新一轮牛市已经开始，也不代表价格会一路直线上涨

牛市同样会回调，去杠杆，重新给入场机会。

[lufei @lufeieth]

投资就是投人。

就是投创始人看清问题本质的能力和战略定力和执行力。

参考后面这条李想几年前的分享。

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@qinbafrank 哈哈，我也注意到了，两个人的一来一回都冷冷的，nick追问沃什也不太想回答

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@puckrin likely not

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@RWAFoundation_ Also challenging is explaining why a token is needed and how value capture works, crypto natives think in tokens not in equities

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@Cardano_CF @GBBC_io do you have more details on CF's contribution? congrats

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@BTCdayu 四川人确实爱享受， 天天问的都是吃啥子去哪耍

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@tychozzz 能倒头就睡真的是超强buff

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@signalweek which day will he be speaking?

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

positively surprised as a Monument Bank client, excited to try the features

[Midnight Foundation @midnightfdn]

Midnight 🤝 Monument Bank

Monument is set to become the first UK-regulated bank to tokenize retail customer deposits on a public blockchain — representing interest-bearing savings as digital tokens while remaining fully backed, redeemable in GBP, and protected under existing regulatory frameworks.

Built on Midnight’s privacy-enhancing blockchain infrastructure, this approach ensures that transaction data remains shielded and accessible only to authorized participants — enabling the use of blockchain technology while maintaining the confidentiality and compliance required in regulated financial services.

The initiative begins with a target of £250 million in tokenized deposits and represents the first phase in a broader rollout to expand access to tokenized financial products. Over time, this includes enabling exposure to asset classes such as private equity and structured products, and introducing more flexible lending models — capabilities historically reserved for institutional and private banking clients.

Together, this partnership demonstrates how regulated financial institutions can bring traditional financial products on-chain — unlocking a more flexible, accessible, and programmable financial system without compromising privacy or regulatory standards.

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@Joensmoon @justinsuntron 面善心狠似董卓

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

🇬🇧UK crypto users: the FCA is shaping new rules that could change how you trade, stake, and access crypto

I’m collecting user input in response to FCA’s Consultation Paper 25/40

I’ve boiled it down to 4 questions and will share it in my response to the Consultation Paper - answer them and help shape the future of UK crypto rules 📗 @TheDePINCat @ThePolicyCat

https://t.co/mFi7fWqKDt

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

@0xMrBrain 祝早日跌破支撑位

[Bullish Dumpling @BullishDumpling]

Ssss🐍

@SnekFigures @snek