.@fundstrat's Tom Lee was covering tech as an analyst when the fiber boom came apart.
That is why his read on AI spend is different.
Tom Lee on tech and the updated Fundstrat Top Stock Ideas, Wednesday Aug 19 at 2PM ET:https://t.co/OYY8AOqgsh
@Jake__Wujastyk@gocharting Gap fills are nice in theory but these energy names have been choppy lately. I'd want to see volume confirm it before chasing that level.
@zephyr_z9 Curious what specifically triggered this. Feels like one of those moments where everything changes overnight but nobody notices until weeks later.
$LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings:
Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth
vs. ~$984.6M
Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95
Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6%
Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important:
Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B
Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 vs. ~$3.63
Operating margin (non-gaap) of 39.5% - 40.5%
In terms of notes:
Sees: "Increasing demand for ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial order for ELS modules"
- Great read through on other CPO players like $SIVEF, $COHR, and others. (maybe not AAOI since they're missing out on first-gen deployments)
- "Breath of NPO engagements are the first signs that optics are starting to penetrate in-rack connectivity, significantly upping our optical TAM"
- Revenue projections "reaching our target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule."
Extremely strong earnings as expected, you have revenue going from:
$808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B while operating margin keeps increasing... Just my first impressions.
Most important thing is the earnings call coming up soon.
@CKCapitalxx The house always wins in the end. I think most of those posts are either exaggerated or people chasing a dopamine hit more than actual profits.
@marclou@loaibassam@marckohlbrugge Honestly not a bad idea. Half the "offers" I get are just people fishing for info. Verification weeds out the time wasters before you even reply.
Another MASSIVE Subscriber win.
6 days ago I flagged $USAR as a Trade Idea for subscribers right after the July 30 DPA scrap-export ban (proof below).
Since then? The call is up 32%.
Another quiet win for the people who see these in real time.
Subscribers only. Get access now for the next one.
@TradexWhisperer So capacity nearly doubles but they still expect a 20% gap? Sounds like pricing power stays strong for a while longer. Curious how the hyperscalers react if they start locking in capacity this early.
$TSM $NVDA $EWY
“TSMC’s monthly CoWoS capacity is projected to increase from approximately 70,000 wafers in 2025 to 130,000–140,000 wafers by the end of 2026. Even so, the report estimates that the CoWoS supply-demand gap will remain at approximately 20% in 2026.”
“NVIDIA has reportedly reserved approximately 800,000 to 850,000 wafers of TSMC’s CoWoS capacity for 2026, accounting for more than 50% of the company’s total CoWoS capacity for the year.”
“Following TSMC’s reported outsourcing expansion, major OSAT providers are placing equipment orders for new production lines… purchase order (PO) discussions are underway with South Korean materials, components, and equipment suppliers for CoW equipment.”
He signed up yesterday and the membership already covered its cost—plus extra profit.
Some folks spend 2 weeks wondering if $199 is worth it. He made the call in 5 minutes and got it back in a day.
Get in here: https://t.co/spN6oDRJbO