How a Point72 research head actually read China:
Kirk McKeown explains:
"I did a ton of work studying China over the years."
"The best way to get a read on China is to call Australia. 45% of Australia's GDP is China."
"Signals aren't binary. They're on a spectrum — low grade, medium grade, high grade."
"Going into Lehman in August '08, China shut all the ports for the Beijing Olympics."
"Pre-buy of Caterpillar equipment to fund construction after the Olympics. Ports closed for three or four weeks — nothing could get in, so everybody bought ahead."
"Once the ports opened back up, there was nothing to buy. It creates an air pocket."
At 40, Franz Kafka (1883-1924), who never married and had no children, walked through the park in Berlin when he met a girl who was crying because she had lost her favourite doll. She and Kafka searched for the doll unsuccessfully. Kafka told her to meet him there the next day and they would come back to look for her.
The next day, when they had not yet found the doll, Kafka gave the girl a letter “written” by the doll saying “please don’t cry. I took a trip to see the world. I will write to you about my adventures.”
Thus began a story which continued until the end of Kafka’s life.
During their meetings, Kafka read the letters of the doll carefully written with adventures and conversations that the girl found adorable.
Finally, Kafka brought back the doll (he bought one) that had returned. “It doesn’t look like my doll at all,“ said the girl.
Kafka handed her another letter in which the doll wrote: "my travels have changed me.” the little girl hugged the new doll and brought her happy home.
A year later Kafka died. Many years later, the now-adult girl found a letter inside the doll. In the tiny letter signed by Kafka it was written:
“Everything you love will probably be lost, but in the end, love will return in another way.”
I spent most of COVID trying to perfect a steak recipe. 200 attempts later, this is where I landed.
In honor of kicking off grilling season, I gift it to you. Hope you enjoy.
In 2019, MIT professor Patrick Winston gave a legendary 1-hour lecture called “How to Speak.”
It has 18M+ views for a reason.
His frameworks:
• Your ideas are like your children
• The 5-minute rule for job talks
• Why jokes fail at the start
15 lessons on communication:
Dog reunited with her lost puppies
After the owner took her puppies away, Cora the dog wound up at a shelter. Depressed, she wouldn't leave a corner, but the Marin Humane Society reunited the family
With just one main road and a population of 2,200, Driggs, Idaho, doesn't seem like a likely candidate to be the next uber-luxe, scene-y western mountain hot spot. That's about to change. https://t.co/bP8MlvQcqZ
“Anything worth doing will have aspects of stress woven through: challenge, discomfort, risk. We can’t change that. But what we can change is our response.”
https://t.co/eBaAp8J4kX
9. In May, I shared my tech stock investing framework and pitched two companies on the long side. One stock is flat and the other one is up double digits in a terrible down tech tape. https://t.co/OmE18qPzvp
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Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll walk you through "Gambler's Ruin".
This is a classic exercise in probability theory.
But going beyond the math, this exercise can teach us a lot about life, business, and investing.
Cost of owning vs. renting a home became focal point in our housing coverage throughout 2022. Home prices historically need a reset when the premium of owning explodes this high, this quickly.
Fascinating study on why we get sick more when the weather is cold! Our nasal passages are protected by extracellular vesicles. At 40° for 15 min 42% get knocked out & density dropped by 70%
Thank you @drbeen_medical https://t.co/9cZ6oeXBVw
Research shows that musicians possess special skills in achieving a flow state. And it's contagious—studies confirm that other members of the band can pick up on it from a single member, and even the audience feels its pull.
More at https://t.co/FBEqzrd767
If you live life as if there are no respiratory viruses, you'll sometimes get sick, and you'll live your life.
If you live your life to avoid all respiratory viruses, you'll sometimes get sick, and you'll have let your life pass unlived.