Calculated Paths

Trying to figure out the next life move, one decision node at a time.

This shit is hard.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

Been running spreadsheets on my own life for a while. DEXA scans, rent models, IRR hurdles on stock picks….

At some point it became a site to work on my claude code skills and now apparently an X account.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

The gamers are going to revolt.

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

AI is fucking everything in tech up on such a staggering level and anyone who is wondering why people hate it at this point either has their head in the sand or their ass

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@rev_cap When will people on X learn that Satya doesn’t hold the $MSFT purse strings.

Also I bet this sentiment reverses when Azure/AWS accelerate when they all smash price increases this year.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@firstadopter Healthy ecosystem argument - hope $MU learns from this and doesn’t decide to be even more extractive.

Granted their GMs are already absolutely insane - so hard to say they aren’t just continuing the cycle of abuse.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@akramsrazor Its a good trade, maybe less asymmetric r/r - but wouldn’t want to be a LT holder.

It can and may still have room to run, but at some point the bottleneck trade will end due to supply or efficiency unlock and $MU will stop over-earning.

Cyclicals be cycling.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

That $SPCX round trip has them scared - they don’t even have the Elon premium

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: OpenAI is now "leaning toward" pushing its IPO until 2027, per NYT.

Details include:

1. "Choppy" markets in recent weeks have led OpenAI to reconsider the timeline of the IPO

2. The company is worried it may not find much enthusiasm from retail investors

3. Advisors are recommending OpenAI either wait until 2027 to IPO at $1 trillion or lower the valuation for a quicker IPO

Recent volatility in tech stocks has raised concerns around OpenAI's IPO.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

Living to work isn’t so great when socioeconomic class mobility is getting worse and nothing feels affordable no matter how much you work/save.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

An entire generation under the age of 30 is coming to realization that having a family and home will never be reality for them

This is why socialism is gaining traction in America. Dangerous path to go down. Affordable housing is the only solution

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@packyM Someone should build an analysis tool to match posting velocity with claude up-time to see who the biggest offenders are

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

The supply chain is going to get so expensive that not even AGI will drive an ROI at this point.

Kidding, but in all seriousness - how are the labs going to generate a margin with how expensive training/inference is going to get?

Testing the markets willingness to subsidize.

[Jukan @jukan05]

Culpium: TSMC is pushing for a 5–10% price increase across all advanced nodes, including 7nm. This was driven by management’s directive after seeing competing memory companies enjoy higher pricing and wanting to benefit from the same trend.

$TSM

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

This shit plus 2/3x levered etfs on individual stocks should be illegal.

Its just straight up gambling.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Taiwan's locals are borrowing so much to invest in the TSMC-fueled AI stock frenzy it's raising fears of a bubble, per Bloomberg

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@hiddensmallcaps At some point the rent taking by the memory companies is bound to backfire - a lot of engineers probably working on how to build more memory efficient systems because the $ incentive is there .

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@SixSigmaCapital I already own to much of a weight in $AMZN but I would buy more here too

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@nikesharora Dario has said they need > $1T of revenue to stave off bankruptcy risk at the frontier (maybe dramatic) - so efficient token use is actually a negative for them.

But catch-22, is that ents will never see the amt of ROI to justify spend.

Interesting game theory to be played.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

Would be funny if they spin it out and its more or less as if they sold X-box to Activision Blizzard lol

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Microsoft, $MSFT, is reportedly exploring major structural changes for its Xbox division, including a spin-off, joint venture, or conversion into a wholly owned subsidiary, as it faces margin pressure and shifts focus toward higher-growth AI and cloud businesses.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@SouthernValue95 With the memory guys its a pure tax and its not necessarily increasing performance, so your cost per token is rising fast.

Feels like the market will have to find a circumvention around rising HBM or AI ROIs wont pencil and the hyperscalers will slow down.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@SouthernValue95 With $NVDA at least the tech improved with every successive GPU release - so you got more bang for buck on capex even if you are throwing money at then.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

Yep.

[steve2bacon, CMT 🥓🍩 @steve2bacon]

man if you don’t own memory stocks, this shit is like the great depression out here

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

When did he go all Buddhist monk?

He has a mansion, a private jet, and is obsessed with Loro Piana, wine, and other classic rich person shit?

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

The new status is no symbol.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

@MikeZaccardi @WisdomTreeFunds $NVDA might no longer be a real cyclical and should shift valuation to more of a secular growth type multiple (high 20s/low 30s P/E).

Huge upside if it does - but not sure market is ready to change the story that dramatically on what are fundamentally commodities.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

That’s all for now - will maybe post more on this topic if I feel like it later.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

Some learnings from my time as a startup founder - mostly failures, but useful if you are a first-timer.

I exited in 2025 and then promptly left- who knows if the company we were acquired by will ever be worth anything.

[Calculated Paths @CalculatedPaths]

6. Don’t hesitate in asking for help, but also be ready to hear every permutation of a polite “no”.

Accept it and move on.