The Caliber Man

"Your mental fortitude should be so ferociously fortuitous that it can withstand the searing sound of solitude" - Me

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $135,000,000,000 added to the crypto market cap in the past 24 hours.

[GeoMetric @GeoMetric_9]

I'm seeing a lot of paranoia and suspicion out here. I suspect those worried here are generally in one of two camps: either they have no exposure, or they've chased this pump late.

With key bitcoin:native macro levels like the 1W ATR and the 50W SMA right overhead, there is certainly some basis for that concern.

But we must not ignore the fact that there are also key macro resistances that have now flipped into support, including hidden geometric levels.

I'm only speculating here, but my own suspicion is that we could see another surprise pump straight into the $90ks, luring in those waiting for confirmation above the macro resistances, including those waiting for structure to form that higher high, before we eventually get the bigger shakeout.

At the moment, there is also no momentum to break the potent support level sitting just below us.

As someone who accumulated the lows and also entered a leveraged position there, there's really nothing for me to do here. We simply sit back, let things play out either way, and continue to touch some grass.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

How much longer will it be until more people realise this was not a full cycle bear market?

That it was, in-fact, a mid cycle correction?

Will the penny drop once we are at ATHs at the start of next year?

I think that is how long it will take until it can no longer be denied.

The mass consensus is that we were going to bottom Q4 and take years to get back to the highs.

And that would make sense, if what we were going through was a full cycle bear.

However, it was not.

It doesn't get much clearer than when you overlay the two mid cycle corrections together, as is pictured in this chart.

They bottomed at exactly the same timeframe - 259 days from the peak.

And 2019/2020 correction went on to top out parabolically 863 days after its peak.

That gives us a new ATH of Feb 2028.

If you are not seriously considering this outcome, you are doing yourself a massive disservice.

For months on end, the data has been clear across the board.

At first, it was ridiculed.
Now, the reply guys are quiet
Next, they will be praising it

Don't get left behind simply because you dont understand it yet.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

$1,000 invested 15 years ago today would be worth:

• Bitcoin: $8,970,000
• Nvidia: $735,000
• Tesla: $231,000
• Apple: $29,000
• S&P: $8,400
• Gold: $2,150

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC Chair Paul Atkins says he expects the Crypto Clarity Act to pass this month.

[The Caliber Man @caliber_man]

RT @KobeissiLetter: BREAKING: There are now a record 1.9 million onchain tokenized equity holders, up +134% month-over-month.

This the tot…

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

The move back to the highs will be faster than everyone thinks.

We are simply not in the same overall market position that everyone thinks we're in.

I have been talking about the Business cycle, and how the Crypto market, due to this, is currently in a mid cycle position.

When we look at the Business cycle, we can see that for every actual full cycle bear, the Business cycle is descending/contracting.

This is an overall contraction of the economy, liquidity, and very high inflation.

The reason it takes Bitcoin years to recover from these full cycle bears is because it takes a long while for the Business cycle to reset itself.

However, that is not the position we are in today.

This bear cycle has happened whilst the Business cycle is expanding, just like 2020.

This means Bitcoins correction has come to an end in a rapidly accelerating Business cycle that is not slowing down.

Because of this, the overall recovery is highly like to be a great deal faster, and totally different to a full cycle bear.

When you look at this chart, it becomes quite clear just how different it is to every other bear cycle.

This is something I have been covering, in high detail, in my private newsletter.

We have been dissecting this months and months, and accurately navigating this bottom period with precision.

I've release another 15 minute read article on how all of this currently looks, and what my thoughts are moving forward from here.

If you want to stay ahead of the curve and understand what is happening here, make sure to join up.

The article is available to read in the post below!

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

The setup here looks undeniably favourable for the bulls.

At this stage it is hard to find argument for the bear case beyond the fact that Bitcoin has not made a local higher high above $82,700.

Currently, we are sitting above the:
- 1D 200 SMA + EMA
- 1W 50 EMA
- RSI back above 50 after oversold

Throughout Bitcoins entire history, when it has been in this position, it has confirmed that the low is secured.

If we were to proceed to new lows here, it would be the first time that it has ever happened after the above conditions were met.

Locally, we are consolidating between the 50EMA and 50SMA.

The monthly close is tomorrow - close above $76,500 and another domino falls in favour of the bulls.

Statistically, if we be 100% objective based on the data points...

The only levels left for the bears are:
- $82,700 local high
- 1W 50SMA

The bulls have already reclaimed:
- 1D 100SMA
- STH Cost basis
- True market mean
- Weekly RSI 50
- 1D 200 EMA +SMA
- 1W 50EMA
- 200 DMA
- HTF structure
- Bull market support band
- 1D 3D 5D Suptertrend

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

We have had the Cycle Bottom signal fire.

We are now just waiting for the "Bull market" signal to arrive.

And unless Bitcoin takes a very aggressive dive next week, that Bull Market signal should arrive pretty soon.

I absolutely love this indicator because it takes the a complex situation that has loads of different data points, and makes it very simple.

This is a custom designed indicator by me. If you want access to it, just join my newsletter.

Link below.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

First altcoin dominance bull signal since 2020 and 2016.

Your view of cycles may be about to change.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

The setup here is looking very healthy.

Irrespective of any kind of incoming correction or not, the overall backdrop of this price structure isn't bearish.

1. Price - We have a very strong impulsive move
2. Funding - decreased on this recent vertical accumulation
3. Open Interest - nuking and stabilising
4. Coinbase Premium - flipping green for the first time in 3.5 months
5. Spot volume - has been very strong

This has been a heavily spot driven rally where Open interest is stable.

This is exactly what we want to see moving off of the bottom.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

Another bottom signal has fired.

The Short Term Holder MRVR Bollinger Bands have entered overheated for the first time since November 2024.

Which is also the last time the 1D RSI reached these levels.

We can see that the exact same move we have just had here, was the same move we had at the end of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

These readings only fire at the start of new bull cycles, or during strong upthrusts in a bull cycle.

The reading we have just recorded is also the 3rd largest in the last 9 years.

Another key piece of data that shows us that this recent move is nothing like a bear market rally.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

I think that the low is in.

For many reasons I have already shared.

But we do not yet have "confirmation".

So let me tell you where I think we are at and what is needed for the low to be "confirmed".

There is a difference between believing the low is in based on data confluences, and then also having it confirmed.

Now, things are off to a very nice start in confirming the low, but a few more things do need to happen.

Strong points already secured:

- $67,000 level reclaimed(local structure)
- $74,400 reclaimed HTF structure
- 1D 200 SMA+EMA reclaimed(historically strongly confirms a new bull trend).
- 1W 50EMA reclaimed(has always confirmed the low)
- 1D RSI hit 85+(never happens in a bear market rally)

Levels left to confirm 100%:

- 1W 50SMA at $82,000
- 1W Supertrend at $79,000(need to close 1W above)
- Secure a higher low above $82,700
- Monthly higher high above $76,463

At this stage Bitcoin has put in 80% of the data needed to confirm the low.

However, for this low to be undeniable, we need to close above $82,700.

Few paths this leaves us here.

First, if we punch back above $82,000 this week then we moon to $90,000 fast.

If we chop here below $82,700, then I see a maximum drop to $75,000 before eventually taking $82,700.

Securing a monthly close in 3 days above $76,463 increases the probability greatly that the low is confirmed.

At this stage, we are waiting for a few more things to line up and then the trend reversal is undeniable.

So far, a great start, and Bitcoin has already reclaimed levels, that in all previous bears, has marked the end(200D SMA+EMA=1W 50EMA+ 1D RSI 85+).

We will know more by the end of this week/month, which is around the same time.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

This is not a bear market rally.

We can see here, very clearly, where I have marked on the chart, that over the last 10 years...

Every time the 1D RSI has pushed over 85, it has always been either:

1. The start of a very large uptrend
2. Close to the very top of that uptrend

Based on 100% of Bitcoins lifetime data, this kind of RSI reading is showing us that this is the start of a new upwards trend

Never in Bitcoins history has it ever tagged 85+ in a bear market.

Even when Bitcoin was worth $10 in 2011 there was not a 1D RSI reading of 85+ in a bear market.

Of course, this could become the first ever time...

But I doubt it.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Let me explain why 100k matters that much. You see, in previous bull market cycles, every OG at that time was screaming that Bitcoin would reach 100k, and every cycle they were wrong. Until this cycle, where Bitcoin broke through the 100k milestone with the help of institutions and ETFs.

At first, when we got there OGs sold because their long awaited target was reached, so after a short distribution phase, it plunged -32%. Later on, institutions and ETFs bought up the supply which sparked a supply shock back above 100k. At that time, the market thought we'd push higher even the OGs who initially sold at 100k thought so, so they waited and waited without rotating, staying purely sidelined.

Until now. The next time we get back to the psychological level of 100k that OGs had been following for cycles straight, they will finally use the liquidity from selling when Bitcoin initially tapped 100k to rotate into altcoins. At the same time, old retail and new retail will get hyped up because Bitcoin is back at 100k thinking that it will go much higher, and meanwhile everyone flips bullish on Bitcoin, the OGs with their sidelined liquidity, will rotate into altcoins for the first time in years.

BTC.D cascades while Bitcoin hovers at 100k. That's the game.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

How do you know you're mid-cycle?

Same way you knew in 2020.

Last cycle top was the last time Bitcoin hit its upper log regression band right as the business cycle peaked. Not a coincidence.(2017=2021)

Then, as the business cycle reversed and descended toward its zero line, Bitcoin fell to its lower band. (2018=2022)

As the business cycle entered its green bottoming phase, Bitcoin lifted off to its mid-cycle peak, halfway between both bands. (2019=2025).

The business cycle continued its green trough and Bitcoin reversed from its mid-cycle peak back to its lower band. (2020=2026).

All this time, altcoins have consolidated in an ascending triangle, yet to break above last cycle's peak.

Now here we are. The parabolic phase trigger. The business cycle has broken above its zero line, ready to send Bitcoin back to its upper band, and altcoins out of their consolidation.

As I've discussed for nearly two years, "the cycle" is not some mystic 4-year-based religion. Its landmarks are not magically decided by a calendar. Calling a mid-band 2025 peak a cycle top and not 2019, simply because it took longer, ignores every piece of underlying data that has ever defined a cycle.

The business cycle drives the global risk heartbeat, the world in which Bitcoin and crypto live.

So far this one (2022-2026) has shown one major difference to the last (2018-2021) and every one before it...it's longer.

Welcome to the parabolic phase. One that will greatly confuse those that ignore its roots, and reward those that don't.

[The Caliber Man @caliber_man]

@CredibleCrypto @Sykodelic_ Along the way from family and friends been telling me I’ve been investing in “internet coins”, but I know what I hold, I’ll hold on for dear life to see my conviction all the way through

[The Caliber Man @caliber_man]

@CredibleCrypto I’ve been investing in Crypto since I was 19 and now 25, if it wasn’t for you and @Sykodelic_ , I would have sold awhile ago, but now I have my crypto bags full and excited for what the future holds in this space.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Arguably the most important update on crypto I've made in years.

The move that we saw over the last 48 hours has ignited a rally that has been 5+ years in the making.

This is what you've been waiting for.

Enjoy.

https://t.co/pRYNHODYmH

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

If you can't stomach a basic bitch 50% correction, you simply don't deserve $1,000,000 Bitcoin. I have been in Bitcoin for almost a decade, and this one was a cakewalk.