Capybara

Investing/Book&Movie/PM&R/etc.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

Value substance over status, substance over prestige.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ

[LYX @CHNlyx124317]

@LeakWireQ American congressmen can distinguish between more than 100 sexes.But they don't know where bananas can be grown.

[Venu @Venu_7_]

Some of the strongest-looking stocks across different sectors:

Spotify $SPOT
Duolingo $DUOL
Unity $U
Toast $TOST
Fiserv $FISV
Crocs $CROX
Procore $PCOR
Clear Secure $YOU
TransMedics $TMDX
JFrog $FROG
Clorox $CLX
AppLovin $APP

Worth paying attention to these names!

[iain @ohiain]

Two market corrections can produce nearly identical price patterns while having completely different breadth, leadership + sector participation.

March vs. November is a fascinating example of this... for ex. March 30, 2026, was a deeper, broader, more washed out bottom than the November pullback so far.

Here are the breadth differences I'm seeing...

1) March was a broad, persistent internal breakdown:

Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50day moving average fell to extreme levels (~18% around mid to late March). Longer-term participation was also weak (low to mid 30s-40s % above the 200day at times). Monthly advancing stocks were extremely low (~16-18% in some readings). Daily sessions near the low showed very one sided breadth (e.g., ~20% advancing / ~78% declining on key days). New lows expanded sharply. This was multi-week, multi-timeframe weakness... not just a one day flush.

2) November has been weaker on the big down day but far less washed out overall:

Nov 5 saw ugly daily breadth (one source: 73 advancers vs. 430 decliners in the S&P 500, advancing volume ~9%). Percentage of stocks above the 50day dropped (reports in the mid 30s to low 60s depending on the universe), and the percentage above the 200day fell into the mid 50s. However, it did not approach March’s extreme lows, and participation recovered more quickly on subsequent sessions. Equal weight and non tech areas held up relatively better in the lead up and aftermath. Broader market readings (all US stocks) have stayed in weaker but not capitulation territory.

Leadership + sector differences...

March... broad selling across most sectors (tech, industrials, financials, consumer discretionary, etc.). Energy was a clear relative winner amid the oil spike. Leadership broke widely rather than just rotating.

Nov... heavily concentrated in AI/tech/semiconductors and related infrastructure. Chipmakers (SOX index down ~12% on Nov 5, Nvidia −9%+) and mega-cap AI names drove the bulk of the damage. The catalyst was post-midterm election fears of tighter AI/data-center regulation. Non-tech areas, equal-weight S&P, and some cyclicals/defensives were more resilient. Reports noted rotation already underway (e.g., equal-weight making relative or absolute highs while mega-cap tech lagged). Rebounds so far have been more selective and tech-dependent, with breadth lagging on some recovery days.

...but what can I take away from this data?

The March 30 low was a more classic, broad, washed out correction low with wide internal damage. The recent November action is a shallower, more concentrated tech/AI-led pullback with better underlying participation outside of that leadership group.

That makes the recent low look less “strong” or climactic by comparison. Whether the November lows hold will depend on whether tech stabilizes and breadth broadens on the recovery, something that was more forcefully resolved after March.

I'm just sharing what the data says, but at the end of the day, price is the only thing I care about.

My 2 cents.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

THE FED FLAGS AI AS A MAJOR FINANCIAL STABILITY RISK

In its latest report, the Fed says elevated stock valuations are partly driven by enthusiasm for "super intelligence" and warns that AI investment could soon surpass the 1990s telecom boom.

87% of surveyed market contacts cited AI as a financial stability risk, up from 50% in the spring, pointing to earnings disappointments, cyberattacks and complex financing.

Advanced-computing debt issuance hit $680B through October, 5x the amount in 2023, and now accounts for 31% of nonfinancial investment-grade debt issuance, up from under 6%. More than $1.1T is outstanding.

But the Fed says other obligations are growing even faster, including over $1T in future lease commitments and over $2T in take-or-pay contracts and residual value guarantees.

Hedge fund leverage is also at its highest recorded level since 2013.

The report's data cuts off on October 28, before Nvidia's latest selloff.

[iain @ohiain]

As the market opens lower this AM, my eyes go straight to the names refusing to go down with it...

do you see how they're behaving while the indexes sell off? that's the RS I want to watch.

track strength during weakness, trade it on the turn.

Chart: $ABNB, $TOST, $U, $CVNA.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

하방 가능성이 여전히 높다고 보지만, 꽤나 잘 버텨주고 있어서 언제든 롱으로 바꿀 준비는 해야하는 듯.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

@swc7592 이번엔 어떤지 봐야겠네요 ㅋㅋ

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

최근 하트넷을 많이 참고함. 원래 대단한 분이지만, 이번 하락/조정에 독보적이었던 듯.

사람은 기존 가지고 있는 휴리스틱과 스키마에서 벗어나기 굉장히 힘들기 때문에(어쩌면 유전자 단에서부터 정해진...) 상황에 따른 패턴 인식 능력이 다르고 바꾸기가 힘든 편.

그래서 상황이 바뀌었을 때, 그 상황을 잘 해석하는 사람을 따라가면 되는 듯.

X에서는 @dons_korea @PForever0000 @BTC_WyckoffLab 이분들 도움을 많이 받은 듯.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BOFA'S HARTNETT: STAY RISK-OFF UNTIL TREASURY YIELDS FALL BELOW 4.5%

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warns investors to remain risk-off until financial conditions ease.

His key conditions for turning bullish:

🔸 10-year Treasury yield below 4.5% — potentially December or January.
🔸 Oil below $70 per barrel — already moving in that direction.
🔸 Weaker US dollar — expected to peak in February or March.

BofA sees the S&P 500 above 8,000 in its bull case, but below 7,000 in its bear case.

Despite the caution, global equity funds attracted $98.3 billion last week, the largest inflow since June.

Hartnett sees a market still supported by aggressive dip-buying, but vulnerable to higher rates and tighter liquidity.

[味ポン @ajipondu]

nvidiaのceo辞任劇でai投資減速懸念が出ていますが、世界経済の体温計として日本の鉄スクラップ価格は優秀とされています。
例えば日銀の月次PPI中の『鉄屑』価格は世界経済の高不況の波を今なお捉え続けています。

日本の業者が「鉄スクラップが下がりだした」と言いだしたら注意です⚠️

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

US margin debt is surging.

In just the past 6 years, margin debt has surged by ~50%.

This is why hedge funds are blowing up left and right over a mere 6% correction.

Investors are all in on stocks while we're still in the biggest supply crisis in history.

This will end in tears...

[Jukan @jukan05]

Nvidia chips are still scarce, even now.

But to maximize that premium, Nvidia has to support the neoclouds.

If the new Nvidia CEO turns even slightly skeptical about supporting the neoclouds, spot prices will take a hit. That will hurt neocloud margins. To avoid this, the neoclouds will have no choice but to reach out elsewhere. AMD, or the TPU camp.

In other words, the neoclouds break free of Nvidia's grip, and Nvidia's dominance and influence both take a hit. That in turn means a hit to the massive order volume that underpins Nvidia's only moat, its control of the supply chain, and it means Nvidia's flywheel breaks.

Jensen worked tirelessly to protect this flywheel. He pushed on many fronts to get a blind eye turned to neoclouds leasing capacity to Chinese hyperscalers, and he encouraged chip exports to China so that China would never forget the taste of the Nvidia sauce, working relentlessly to have China's AI ecosystem built on top of Nvidia. That way, even if the latest GPUs become hard to get inside China, there is still a reason to rent the same chips from overseas neoclouds. Keeping Chinese developers inside the Nvidia ecosystem was also a way of protecting neocloud utilization.

Still, all of this was playing with fire along the edges of the gray zone, something deeply improper and dangerous in the eyes of Washington.

Even so, Jensen did what was best for Nvidia. That cannot be denied.

Jensen meant to wait until the neoclouds could order the next generation of GPUs on their own. He probably saw sharing risk with customers until then as being in Nvidia's interest too. What I want to know now is whether the next CEO can wait that long.

According to the WSJ article... the current CEO does not seem to be that patient.

I worry about an Nvidia without Jensen.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

$SOXX 흠... 매수세 없이 밀리는거 같기도 하고

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

@BTC_WyckoffLab 뤼스펙

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

빅테크가 버티는 것도 본업+AI 모델 +@ 가 있기 때문 아닐지

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

기존에는 프론티어 모델과 반도체는 한 몸 처럼 움직였는데 다른 양상이 나타날 수도 있음.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

$APP 밸류에이션 부담있고 광고업이라 침체 이슈가 나오면 좋지는 않지만 엄청난 FCF와 성장 보이는 기업. 오늘 잘 버티는 중

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

바이오는 $LLY $GILD 는 당연하고 $TMDX 한때 좋았다가 유럽 진출하면서 뭔가 주가는 말아먹었는데 최근 좋은 듯.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

오늘 잘 버티는 반도체 기록 $STM 이유가 뭐지?

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

@kkukgee 폐쇄형 프런티어 모델이 곧 애플리케이션 역할까지 해줄거고, 엔비디아발 사태로 오픈 웨이트 진영이 쇠퇴와 반도체 수요에 대한 우려가 생겼다고 봅니다(실제와 우려 사이 괴리가 크더라도)

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

기존에는 프론티어 모델과 반도체는 한 몸 처럼 움직였는데 다른 양상이 나타날 수도 있음.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

바이낸스 선물 시장 기준으로 $ANT 와 $SOXX 가 괴리를 보이고 있음. 예전에 $SOXX 와 $IGV 의 괴리가 의미가 있었듯이, 지금 보이는 차이도 시장 센티먼트에 중요할 듯.

[Capybara @capybara_kr]

바이낸스 선물 시장 기준으로 $ANT 와 $SOXX 가 괴리를 보이고 있음. 예전에 $SOXX 와 $IGV 의 괴리가 의미가 있었듯이, 지금 보이는 차이도 시장 센티먼트에 중요할 듯.