TC Global Macro

Economist, central bank watcher, global macro investor #cdnecon #BOC

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

@tleilax___ Oh ya, nothing to see here: https://t.co/i8Gfr7lu6e

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

@PhilSmith26 Nice chart. Would be even better if you added energy products.

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

@GlobalProTrader St Catharines similar. Seemed like a good idea in the midst of COVID handouts and work from home.

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

What ever happened to PM Carney’s election promise of “the strongest economy in the G7”? What even happened to FM Champagne’s forecast of “2nd strongest economy in G7”? Based on Q1, Canada is the 2nd weakest economy in G7, edging out France for last place.

[Paul Vieira @paulvieira]

To repeat: 2 quarters of negative growth is a *technical* definition of a recession. In Canada, the CD Howe think tank's business-cycle council tends to make the official determination of whether an economy is in recession -- just like the NBER does in the US. (1/3)

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

Canada’s Economy Contracts for a Second Straight Quarter - The Wall Street Journal What happened to PM Carney’s promise of “strongest economy in the G7”? https://t.co/Biumk903As

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

@OfficialTourPro Driver up the middle by a booming 200 yards. I’m strait but not long.

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

Is this what Michael Burry is talking about? As Alfred E Neumann would say, "What Me Worry?".

[Brad Gilbert @bgtennisnation]

Michael Burry says market feels like 'the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble' @CNBC yellow card for always giving this guy huge headlines mr negative and usually wrong 😑 https://t.co/x4RALKeNqm

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

We need statements like this in Canada. #cdnpoli

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

This is a good illustration of why I backed @KemiBadenoch to be Conservative leader, and why I’ll back her to be Prime Minister. She has conviction, clarity, and courage.

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

Class act in Buffalo!

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

The mic cut out during O Canada at the Sabres game.
Buffalo filled every single second of silence.

Sang it word for word.

This is how you tell your neighbors you see them.
We love Canada. Don’t listen to the noise.

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

Carney announces Canada’s first ever sovereign wealth fund with an initial endowment of $25-billion - The Globe and Mail … but where will the endowment come from? Borrowed? Shifted out of existing government assets? Printed? #cdneco #cdnpoli https://t.co/3YY39RKEjg

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

Very sensible!

[Kim G C Moody @KimGCMoody]

I watched @MarkJCarney’s “Forward Guidance” video yesterday. It was polished, well-produced - and ultimately unconvincing.

Even more concerning was the uncritical amplification by parts of the media, airing a 10-minute political message in full as if it were neutral analysis.

If you’ve been watching NHL games streamed on Sportsnet+ lately, you’ve likely seen the same theme repeated in high-production ads. The word of the day: “rupture.” It’s a neat piece of messaging. But it raises a bigger question: is this leadership - or marketing?

Here’s where the narrative falls apart:

1. Fear isn’t leadership.
Fear-stoking is a powerful way to manipulate people. Using words like “crisis” or phrases like “stakes could not be higher..” is classic fear-stoking. Framing our economic relationship with the U.S. as a “weakness” to be “corrected” may be politically convenient, but it ignores reality. The U.S. is our largest trading partner and a critical driver of our prosperity. That’s not changing anytime soon. Strong leaders manage that relationship - they don’t recast it as a liability to justify policy shifts and score political points.

2. The math doesn’t hold up.
We’re told in the video that families will save “over $840” from the 1% tax cut to the lowest marginal personal tax rate. That number appears to double a theoretical maximum. The Parliamentary Budget Officer has suggested average savings are closer to ~$190 per person. That’s hardly transformative. Similarly, targeted GST tweaks on housing are unlikely to materially change affordability for most Canadians.

3. “Catalyze $1 trillion of investment” needs context.
Ambitious soundbites are easy. Reality is harder. Over the past decade, more than $1 trillion in capital has quietly left Canada, the largest capital exodus in Canadian history. Before we celebrate new inflows, we should ask: why did that capital leave in the first place?

4. Canada needs real “Big Bang” tax reform - not boutique tweaks.
If we’re serious about competitiveness, we need to fix the fundamentals:
- Materially lower personal tax rates to remain competitive globally and reduce brain drain
- Encourage reinvestment through smarter corporate taxation (Estonia offers a useful model)
- Eliminate complex, low-impact credits that add cost without improving productivity

5. Execution matters more than messaging.
Investors don’t deploy capital because of YouTube videos or ad campaigns during hockey games. They invest where there is stability, clarity, and a tax and regulatory system that rewards risk-taking and success.

Canada has enormous advantages - resources, geography, talent. But those advantages don’t convert into prosperity without sound policy.

We don’t need more messaging about how high the stakes are and fear-stoking. We need leadership that addresses capital flight, restores competitiveness, and focuses on execution over optics.

That would be real forward guidance.

https://t.co/cCdIBcRASe

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

The 100 investors are not private companies that require an attractive tax and regulatory environment to invest. The investors Carney is inviting are sovereign wealth funds and foreign pension funds who are looking for guaranteed returns. #cdneco #cdnpoli https://t.co/hcjBCicd3o

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

@terencecorcoran Also 19. Never recorded from radio to cassette.

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

@Gray_Mackenzie According to the IMF, “temporary fiscal measures in the form of subsidies, tax cuts, and price caps can help … [but] such
measures are often regressive, fiscally costly, and politically difficult to roll back. Hence,
discretionary fiscal support should typically be avoided”.

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

@AahanPrometheus 👍

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

@AahanPrometheus That’s why I cut the overweight by half. Now my question is should I await the reaction to the ceasefire and reload? Not asking for advice. I think you’ve already provided it. Best!

[TC Global Macro @CarmichaelTed]

Velina’s on board!

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

Canada must get its act together and help mitigate the worst supply shock crisis in the field of oil and gas. Carney’s government must skip long-term constructivism for short-term pragmatism.