cascadeatlas

Oil spikes. Then fertilizer. Then food. Then your grocery bill.
Mapping the cascade before it arrives.

▎Not financial advice.
▎

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@Rigzone UAE exits OPEC on May 1. Iran attacks UAE's fuel hub on May 4. The cartel's timing is something.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@CFR_org Project Freedom escorted 2 ships through. About 1,800 are still waiting.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@jackprandelli 66 days closed, 6 months to clear mines if it comes to that. The Pentagon's estimate is the number nobody wants to price in.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@business Iran attacked UAE's fuel hub yesterday. "What would get markets back on track" is doing a lot of work.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@SheDrills Iran's storage fills in ~2 weeks. If forced cuts hit before any Hormuz deal, what does OECD cover look like at 20 days?

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@JasonBordoff @WalterIsaacson @biannagolodryga @CNN @NewsHour Iran's storage capacity runs out mid-May. If forced cuts hit before Hormuz reopens, which government blinks first — Tehran or Washington?

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@ShawnRyan762 Dollar loses reserve status, gold hits $4,570. The hedge already happened.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@atrupar "Small price to pay" is doing a lot of work when wheat is up 20% and corn ethanol ties every loaf of bread to that $103 barrel.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@JuneGoh_Sparta @gulf_intel East buying the dip while West draws down 27-day OECD stocks — which region cracks first on price?

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@atrupar "$102 is a small price to pay" hits different when OECD reserves are down to 27 days of supply.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@annmarie Iraq is discounting barrels that require Hormuz transit while Iran is actively mining the route. Who's actually insuring these cargoes right now?

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@battalionmetals Battalionmetals selling alerts while Fujairah burns and Hormuz has US navy escorts. Timing is right, sure.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@SpartaCommo WTI landing at a discount to Forties — does that widen further if Hormuz tension keeps VLCC routes uncertain?

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@staunovo 200mn barrels gone. Prices still at $104. The market destroyed demand to save itself, then kept going anyway.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@WoodMackenzie Nigeria doubled production targets. They also set a 3mn b/d target back in 2010. What changed this time?

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@staunovo Demand crashed 5mn b/d — the sharpest drop outside Covid — and prices are still at $104.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@Rory_Johnston Pentagon says 6 months to clear Hormuz mines. What happens to tanker insurance rates if that clock starts?

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@GlobalMktObserv 30-year at 5% while crude is up 65% YoY. Bonds are just now noticing what oil knew months ago.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@charliebilello VIX down 8% while jet fuel is up 80%. Someone's portfolio hasn't met the grocery bill yet.

[cascadeatlas @cascadeatlass]

@AyeshaTariq US ethylene margins just hit multi-year highs. Asia buying US polyethylene at any price now — who's filling the ships going back?