catechwilliams

Center for Advanced Sciences. Cambridge Einstein Scholar; Ph.D. Philosophy (Oxon); Ph.D. Applied Mathematics (MIT); JD/ MBA (Stanford).

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$SWIM. Stock has barely budged over the last 2 weeks despite: 1) $PNR pre-announcing pool pump sales -17% and 2) $LESL filing for BK citing slowing new pool demand. Expectation of HSD growth this year are disconnected from reality. Earnings miss and guidance cut likely coming.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

@SILVERGOLDBTC28 @GalianoTiramani @Xectron You guys will probably be eating at Golden Corral when $BXBL is below $5 in a few weeks.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$FGMC $3.5B mkt cap tiny home builder. $1M sales. -1,000% GMs. Incinerating cash. 83% SPAC redemption, only $14M in cash. Auditor: "substantial going concern doubts.” Modular homes industry littered with recent bankruptcies. Dubious leadership backgrounds.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$POET $2.5B market cap Canada-based (formerly TSXV-listed) semi component designer. Perennially on the verge of commercialization ($1.4M LTM sales, hemorrhaging cash). Heavily promoted into a $400M offering on 5/18. Dubious order w related party, FEOC, PFIC, among many issues.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

@TaylorStCap $MRLN Investor presentations, company filings and public statements clearly represent that they are trying to develop pilotless technology (see intro slide of their IR deck below). Regardless I believe drone technology and auto-pilot assist systems have existed for many years.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$MRLN. Recent SPAC. Development-stage science project attempting to make autonomous airplanes. Even if they ever get FAA approval, it will take a brave sole to get in a plane with no pilot and/or send high value cargo. Many existing autopilot competitors. Burning $70M/ year.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$GPGI Stagnating credit card manufacturer (fka CompoSecure). Levered up 4x to acquire commodity plastic injection molding company Husky. Last month CEO departed, this week CEO and CFO of Husky left. Now rudderless with very ambitious guidance almost certain to get revised lower.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$ANDG. Resurrected Arthur Andersen of Enron fame. Provides small business valuation and tax services—being disintermediated by AI, highly competitive. Ironically reported a material weakness in internal controls. Aggressive growth and valuation. Multiple other red flags.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$HERE: pop toy fad crashing like Beanie Babies. #1 selling product prices plunging 90% during critical holiday period. $HERE revenue and margins will be impacted severely. https://t.co/czXxPRZTZy

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

@TonyTony9999991 There is a massive shortage of capacity industrywide. AI DC vacancy rates running 2-3%. Tenants are scrambling for access to computing power. The customer loss was referenced as it would strongly signal that $WYFI won't get a new one (ie. likely performance issues at NC-1).

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$WYFI Retrofitted a food distro warehouse into a NC-1 DC. Lost anchor tenant ($20M rev), promising a new large customer since 10/27. CEO claiming “very very soon” for last 20 days. Increasingly evident will not happen. Sell-side & stock prices assume huge rev ramp. Burning cash.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

The $WYFI data center which was formerly a food distribution center.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$PTRN Recent IPO. $AMZN Mktplace wholesaler. Buys products up front, capital intensive, bears price, inventory risk. Exposed to FBA cost & AMZN algo changes. Claims AI optimization which AMZN explicitly blocks. Razor thin margins, neg op leverage. All peers went BK in last 3yrs.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$QSG Announced the core business sold for only $2.5M. This was 100% of the company as recently as April. Now it's a fad toy company trading at 4-5x sales (FY2026 sales guide of $100M-$150M, +$500M mkt cap). Legacy VCs almost certainly going to unload now.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$QSG: Delayed filing. Mounting accounting issues. Failed ed biz buying a toy company (highly dilutive). US-based VC fund DCM owns 21% S/O. Will be hard to justify an investment in an ed company that devolved into a toy business to their LPs. Likely the next legacy holder to sell.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$QSG Failing Chinese online learning company made a “strategic pivot toward product-driven business” by acquiring a single product toy biz: 1) March acq 61% for $33M, 2) 3 weeks ago acq at 5x that prior valuation. Massively dilutive. Legacy VCs selling fast, report this week.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$RDDT I don't make bold predictions. I'm a conservative doctor but it will likely be the next $META or $GOOG. Look at those companies 8-10 years ago. Very similar fact pattern. Now $RDDT is dominating search w highly valuable AI. +78% rev on tough comp and just getting started.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$CRCT Covid fad DIY crafting printers—accelerating unit sales decline, cutting prices. High margin subscription rev (online templates library free elsewhere) now churning off. Set for Q2 miss/ guide down on 8/5. 18-20x P/E. Massive CEO selling.

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

Customers commentary on moving vendors. https://t.co/zb1SP18Yzo

[catechwilliams @catechwilliams]

$INGM Massive cyber & ransomware attack. All systems over the weekend. Still can’t fulfill orders after 4 days. Customers moving to competitors (as reported on Reddit). Likely permanent damage & customer losses. Ransomware payment due. Compounded by a major IT upgrade now needed.