O'Neil : "Some stocks can be sold when they are 70% to 100% above their 200-day moving average price line"
In October 2025, $OKLO , a pre-revenue nuclear co reached more than 300% above 200D MA.
@BZHInvest J aime bien ta répartition qui n est pas très loin de la mienne 😉. Je préfère juste les siic aux scpi qui ne sont pas assez liquides et trop chargés en frais pour moi.
I recall Scott O'Neil teaching that when the portfolio took a big one day hit, he would look for the portfolio to gain back at least 50% of the hit/loss in the next two days as signal that a strong rebound was underway and had a strong chance of working. So far today, I have recovered just over 50% of yesterday's whack. Hope it holds.
I wonder who got caught bagholding the biggest hype in Q4 2025, $Eose. It was so overwhelming on FinX even I dabbled but followed my instinct and exited. (small position and profit). I warned many times in the past and hopefully some followed.
$eose will dilute because it is a high capex business, low margin. These billions in fund raising are small compared to the 100s of billions from competitors from the likes of LG, Samsung, China, and japanese industrial powerhouse. You have to be versed in how the world works to make money.
Individual investor asset allocation still heavy in stocks in spite of the July shake out. Above 70% is my cautious zone even if it can go much higher (77% in January & March 2000)
For Europeans, investing in the US seems easier as €/$ remain relatively close to its PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) for the last 10Y.
But as we can see with current USD/JPY deviance from PPP (JPY 40% undervalued), the FX risk is always to be considered for foreign investors.
I did a quick due diligence on $AMBA. I like the company a lot from 2020. They were the primary chip maker for GoPro. GoPro faced a lot copycats, and so went the fortune for both GoPro and AMBA. They specialize in video processing.
> UP 22% on no news
> Historical underperforming.
> Lackluster revenue growth
> Leslie Kohn / Co founder, primary chip designer stepped down as part-time CTO role.
> Fermi Wang CEO is stepping up.
> Interesting new CNN based (like LLM) chips coming out.
My take: I think the turnaround is a little too late. They should be well positioned well by this stage of the game. $CRBS and Groq are examples of well positioned. They sat on their butt for the last 5 years not accomplishing much.
My prediction $nvda, qualcomm, AMD, and intel's mobileeye will steamroll them with their vertical integration and expertise in LLM-based chip design.
BIG PASS!
A good day to remind Livermore wisdom: 'After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!'
Until today, I knew J Law as a famous French-Scottish economist and financier who lived 3 centuries ago.
I just discovered the other J Law (from HK) and his great insights on this IA bull market:
The Humble USIC Champion
J Law was already a well-known legend in Hong Kong, long before he grabbed the title of USIC champion for a consecutive two years in 2024 and 2025.
IMO J Law is a legend not because he can trade well and broke the world record, but because of his dedication and continuous efforts to share his knowledge and experience and educate the public, and also as the person he is - warm and friendly, open-minded, and continuously seeking improvement in this ever-evolving market!
Glad to learn from and trade alongside a true champion.
Nasdaq red flag. First time I remember seeing 3 days of net lows as the index hits fresh highs. Watch exposure levels and have stops prepared. Net lows in lower panel. Red background shows an unhealthy market. https://t.co/XvGyQ4ZnDe
Finra debt margin YoY growth decreased a little in July thanks to Citadel & co action.
This indicator was really good to spot 2000, 2007 & 2021 tops. Worth keeping in eye on it...
European banks have outperformed because their share price was flat from the GFC to 2022.
ECB rising rates was the game changer.
Société Générale & BNP are in the Top 5 of Gator Capital Mngt funds (very great funds specialized in financial holdings)
@LeNoobInvest Si tu sais quels sont les raisons pour lesquelles tu vendras cet ETF, c'est OK. Mais des assets qui ne font rien pendant 10-15 ans et font un parabolic run au bout de 15 ans, c'est classique (tu peux regarder le métal Argent-XAG par exemple qui a fait son bull run jusqu'en 01/26)
So, in the past couple of months management has led investors down in some FinX favorites.
I can recall $EOSE, $TE, and $POET stocks plunged after management heavily missed revenue guidance or just management mistakes.
For an individual investor it is not always easy to digest the whole management team, let alone rate them.
I've done a lot of research last night to management frameworks. McKinsey, Morgan Stanley, BCG, Morningstar,... all have papers on rating management.
The problem?
Most of them are focusing on established companies. They focus on ROI, Free Cash flow, and dividends. If I build a framework like this, the management of high growth companies always have a bad score.
So, I wanted to create something different. An honest and objective framework on management. As I don't want to include too much financial figures, a bit will always be subjective.
The 5 categories:
Category 1: The Say-Do Ratio (Maximum 30 Points):
The Say-Do Ratio tracks the historical reliability of management's public promises versus their actual execution. In pre-profit companies, trust is the only currency; if management cannot accurately forecast their own engineering and sales timelines, their financial projections are entirely worthless.
Category 2: Communication & Transparency (Maximum 20 Points):
This category measures the integrity, clarity, and psychological tone of executive communication. It assesses whether management treats investors as intelligent partners or as targets for manipulation.
Category 3: Capital & Dilution Discipline (Maximum 25 Points):
For pre-profit companies, managing the share structure is just as important as managing the product. A brilliant technology will still result in zero shareholder returns if the equity is diluted into oblivion before commercialization.
Category 4: Founder-Led & Insider Alignment (Maximum 15 Points):
This category assesses whether management shares the same financial fate as retail and institutional investors, embodying the skin in the game philosophy.
Category 5: Strategic Focus (Maximum 10 Points):
This measures the company's ability to stay on course, defending its economic moat rather than chasing the latest technological fad to generate short-term retail interest.
Does it work? It looks like it.
Some examples:
$POET: 19/100
$EOSE: 35/100
$TE: 28/100
$PL: 88/100
$RKLB: 79/100
To make it easy, I did put my framework in a Gem. If you want to do the same, please copy paste the framework and instruction that I have put in the comments.
It should be possible in every LLM, not just Gemini. If you don't have a paid subscription on any model, just ask me. I will put in in my model and give you the score with the major red and green flags.