Cautious Investor

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@Dcpcooks Yields had already spiked. Without a reason of that magnitude. Then the jobs and inflation was kind of already priced in.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@themissinglinks @DratchCap @citrini Bro I have 90 110 for the same expiry I am afraid if I will make any profit. Breakeven is slightly north of 93.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@TheLongInvest But wouldn't that likely reverse the 10y very fast?

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@adamtaggart I am in similar journey. May be not as intense as you. But just an anecdote. What worked for me was cardio only. I hit that elliptical hard. Got my HR way up to 95% max for a full hour. Thats when I started seeing results. Weights didnt cut it for me. Just a note if it helps you.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@adamtaggart @JJMaTrader @ArmandoDisraeli @LanceRoberts I see what you are saying. But I am seeing it a bit differently I suppose. Say SPY is up 100% next year. What happens to the K? The gap widens. Or so I think. A 50% drop in SPY should do the opposite. And the gap should narrow by lower half going up. But I might be wrong too.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@adamtaggart @ArmandoDisraeli @LanceRoberts Everything depends on where you are on that K. Upper arm is doing great lower arm not so much.

But when the next bear market arrives, it wouldn't be surprising to see if the lower arm does much better than it is doing today. Nearly 90% of that inflation stems from the top arm.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@yieldsearcher @humblemacr42108 At a certain point math takes hold. Where that point is is anyone's guess. Typically someone or something big gets liquidated.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@Emmonspired @Dcpcooks Pick anything. Everything is insanity.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@paxtrader777 @Dcpcooks Buying long bond near 5% gave me big profits for last 3 years. I am in right now at 5. Hope it is not different this time.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@dMacro_dBS He will short it into oblivion

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@spaghettilisbon Sell yield or bond?

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@AndrewHiesinger Yeah but you are forgetting the catastrophic drop in between.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@Fullcarry Who is trading with AI? For me it barely writes a coherent email.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@yieldsearcher It has always been. From day 1. What did people expect AI to do? Just keep writing fancy poems forever? And the reality should have started hitting from 2024 to be honest.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@WhidbeyWXGuy Do you know the time? Taking an evening flight from Seatac on Tuesday.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@RentonFireL864 @nannerl_nanner @MrChaos6 @KingCountyWA @CityofRenton Is that portion of 405 expected to be flooded too? Going to airport tomorrow from Bellevue.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@Nethariabywater @NWSSeattle Thanks. I was thinking more about roads. If 405 is affected I was planning to take I5 tomorrow but maps is showing floods in vicinity of both exits

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@riostoriches That would have been true for a brand new car. At 7-8 years old with near 100k miles on it, might as well buy it for 5k and sell it in 5 years for 4k.

[Cautious Investor @cautious3302]

@TESLA_winston Good deal is actually whoever buys that returned car at 50% off sticker