Christopher Hooks

Journalist. Let me explain something to you, Walsh. This business requires a certain amount of finesse.
[email protected]

[Joseph Vogas @trowaman]

If history is a guide (not a guarantee of future results), yesterday should have been Republicans best day; today should also be good for them.

Dems should have a good weekend. Back to Rs for 2 days, then Dems and GE-only folks pour it on Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.

[Lux_Stella @Lux_Stella_]

👇 bankrupt this state, poseidon

[Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks]

What would Rs be justified in doing if this was true?

[Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks]

It’s a bad sign for what comes next to that TX Republicans don’t say, “we’ll have to win the next election.” They say this

[Houston Chronicle @HoustonChron]

With his political future on the line, Gov. Greg Abbott issued his darkest prediction yet for what could happen if Republican voters don’t start showing up in bigger numbers at the polls. https://t.co/uHZXOKGMcl

[Theo @theoelections]

Past Republican primary voters have taken the lead in early in-person voting: 990,273 to 985,681 for past Democratic primary voters, through Thursday.

Voters with no primary history have grown every day: 22.4% of in-person voters on day 1, then 25.8%, 29.4% and 32.4% on day 4.

On day 4, they outnumbered past Democratic primary voters (30.2%) and were 2.1 points behind past Republican primary voters (34.5%).

[armin @Thorongil16]

TX IPEV DAY 4:

Nothing that is too surprising here yesterday.

The turnout-based shift shrinks by about another point or two as Democratic enthusiasm is tapering slightly - GOP turnout has been pretty stable each day. D+10 turnout shift in 16 tracked counties, combined with extra rurals, means roughly Trump +6.5 or so.

The Dunkel-Maga (Hardin, Randall, NW Tarrant, outer Montgomery) is still lagging. I know Montgomery is going to be lengthening hours so they will have more hours soon.

Tarrant Dems have seen each day's electorate get steadily less Democratic. Collin/Denton are redshifting where they blueshifted in 2024.

With respect to the remaining vote, Dems have burned through a lot of high prop voters, which means that the remaining high-prop voters will tend to skew R. But - 2/3 and 1/3 voters could have selective turnout effects, this remains to be seen.

On the question of non-voters, these continue to be younger, more nonwhite. The second week will be dominated by these, many of whom are expected to lean blue.

Once EV is done we can make determinations on recall and how election day will likely go.

For next week I will have more added to the tracker on the nonvoter composition. Space tonight in 3 hours.
https://t.co/uDdXfkwc8o

[Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks]

@laceltris

[Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks]

can somebody set up a bot to remind people that there’s no party registration in Texas?

[Justin @JustinVos]

I said this yesterday, that in Texas Republicans took the lead in Early Voting. NBC has now verified this information.

[Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks]

@laceltris No, that’s not it! This is the finding of an algorithm or something developed by an outside group called target Smart, and is being misunderstood by everybody on this website except maybe the OP

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Some centrists fantasize that because all LLMs have the ideology of Ezra Klein, that we may be on the doorstep of a great political moderation.

I wrote about a fascinating paper from @ahall_research and Sho Miyazaki that, to my mind, opens the door to a very different outcome.

[Taniel @Taniel]

The new TPOR poll has Talarico up 51/47, but Republicans surviving (barely) in the 7 other statewide elections tested—including: Bo French is up 50/48. https://t.co/3TMuyF4AJB

[A-100 gecs @PinstripeBungle]

if there isn't disproportionate, life-destroying criminal sanction for the people responsible for this in 2029 there will just never be a non-partisan bureaucratic apparatus ever again. I've seen this happen a couple times in a couple places- it just doesn't come back.

[Derek Ryan @longhornderek]

I’m not sure what their definition of rural is but I pulled the 2018 Cruz results for counties with fewer than 50,000 reg voters.

The results for those counties were Cruz 74% / O’Rourke 26%.

[James🗳 @_fat_ugly_rat_]

Don't understand the assumption that the electorate will get more favorable to Republicans; it might, but we really can't tell yet! If anything, historically, it gets bluer and less white later in the early voting period!

[Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks]

@MetsFanInTexas been talking to Rs in the middle of campaigns for two weeks and one of the things several have said is they're having trouble convincing guys like you there's a problem

[Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks]

After 3 1/2 days of early voting, no question that you would rather be Texas Dems than Texas Republicans right now. But you should still wait for the second part of next week before adjusting your Kalshi bets because the gap can and sometimes does narrow

[Lux_Stella @Lux_Stella_]

i dunno 'senator was having gay sex with 17-year old prostitutes for two decades' does feel like it would be a bigger story in a different age its just the bar is in the earth's core at this point

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. https://t.co/8AyV60gg1X

[armin @Thorongil16]

TEXAS IPEV DAY 3 UPDATE

The third day has consistently gotten redder - the electorates in the tracked counties are well bluer than 2024 but by less so than the first two days (D+11 instead of D+12)

Most of the big counties are keeping their leans relative to 2024: Dallas/Travis/Harris are all running an electorate 8-10 pts bluer than 2024.

Potential EV frontloading in Tarrant for Dems - their turnout advantage has dropped fairly precipitously.

Dark MAGA land is starting to catch up. Deaf Smith, Potter, Randall, Hardin all had day 3 that was *redder* than the day 3 in 2024. Turnout is still horrible there though.

Indian/Pakistani precincts in Collin/Fort Bend are seeing elevated Asian turnout - this is perhaps the Bo French backlash.

Overall EV is more Latino and younger.

Still lots to go, but Democrats are still in the driver's seat. If I had all the rural counties to add in, the recalled electorate would probably be Trump +7 or so. Eminently doable for a Dem to get 7 points of persuasion in this environment - but we can't directly measure that.

I will try to add more counties if they can get me data in time. Next EV space will be on Friday to talk about latest results.

Interactive here:
https://t.co/uDdXfkwc8o

[Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks]

to see who rules over you… ask whom you are not allowed to criticize

[Aarón Torres @AaronTorres_]

Here's our story on President @realDonaldTrump snubbing @bofrench twice since last night
https://t.co/eRZwha2O1S

[James🗳 @_fat_ugly_rat_]

I don't really love how intensely pollsters have been herding around Talarico+1/2 lately