As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty:
This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term
Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries
Google’s response?
Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for
A few examples to illustrate:
For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model
I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid
This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much
However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding
It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem
Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision
Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting
This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed
But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact
-match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)”
The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off
So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam
This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants)
This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes
Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day
And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off
Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target
These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow
Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs
Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future
This is now no longer the case
At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
Here's my take on what's happening in Brazil 🇧🇷
Leave Trump and American politics completely out of it just for a moment...
On the one hand, you have Lula.
An 81 year old leftist, former union boss, who has been in politics since the 1980s. His career in politics is littered with scandals, corruption, investigations, indictments, etc.
- 2005 vote buying scandal
- 2010 Cesare Battisti's blocked extradition
- 2014 "Operation Car Wash"
- 2015 "Operation Zelotes"
On the other hand, you've got Flavio Bolsonaro.
A 45 year old right wing son of the former President, Jair Bolsonaro (who attempted to stage a coup and was convicted for it...)
- 2020 charged with fraud, embezzlement, and money laundering (but a 2021 superior court ruling annulled the previous ruling, because the evidence used was obtained illegally)
- 2026 caught on tape asking a banker (who is currently in prison for bank fraud + corruption, including defrauding over 800,000 clients for millions of dollars) for $26.8 million to fund a movie about his father
- 2026 loses the election to Lula, complains it was stolen, and flees to the United States to the warm embrace of the Trump administration.
So what do we really have here? It's a shit show.
Lula is a corrupt leftist with bad ideas, particularly regarding the economy. He's also stacked the courts with leftists, and there's a lot of questions about corruptions within the courts. That's objectively bad.
Flavio Bolsonaro is a corrupt right winger whose political party, "Partido Liberal" has shifted to the far-right by opposing minority rights, and embracing authoritarianism as a way to fight the left. That's also bad...
So... yeah. Not great.
“Here is the persecution playbook: passport confiscation, an electronic ankle monitor, censorship, house arrest, a sham trial and, finally, a politically motivated conviction.”
Here is an English translation of the statement Flávio Bolsonaro just released:
I address the Brazilian people and the international community as the true president-elect of Brazil.
First of all, I would like to thank President Milei for his courage, sense of justice and respect for the law, and President Trump and the wonderful American people for welcoming me. This is a land of liberty and of brothers who share the same values as the good people of my country. President Trump is a great defender of freedom of expression.
On Sunday night, I watched in horror as electoral fraud unfolded before my eyes. The illegitimate and illegal actions of Lula’s former lawyer allowed a mathematical impossibility to become reality, with Lula gaining more than 10 million votes between the first and second rounds. A ruling by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), overriding the jurisdiction of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), extended voting at the last minute, and the order arrived only after the legal closing time, when the polls had already closed. Voters were subjected to different rules. So far, the TSE has confined itself to defending the extension of voting hours, without providing even a single credible answer. And these procedural violations are not the only problem. Throughout the campaign, there were abuses of political and economic power and use of the state apparatus in support of reelection. These are serious acts, expressly prohibited by law, that justify annulling the election of the Lula–Alckmin ticket.
The regime’s response to my challenge came swiftly. As if following a prearranged plan, seven minutes after this repugnant electoral fraud, the judge set the regime’s machinery of political persecution in motion. This judge is implicated in an enormous corruption scandal and directly named in the investigation he used to try to seize my passports. He would very likely be in prison had they not prevented me from taking office. He was legally disqualified from the outset and clearly lacks the impartiality required to initiate any judicial proceedings against me. His mere participation in the proceedings reveals the extent of the arbitrary and unlawful conduct underway.
It was not my intention to leave my homeland, but I know exactly where this is heading. This is the classic playbook for a coup d’état. The political persecution that began with my father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, and spread to thousands of other ordinary, patriotic Brazilians and even American citizens has a single objective: to silence anyone who disagrees with the regime operating outside the rule of law that has been established in Brazil through a Supreme Court captured by the Workers’ Party criminal organization.
To be clear, there is no arrest warrant against me, because I have committed no crime. What exists is a politically motivated witch hunt intended to make me a hostage and a target of blackmail to protect the corrupt Supreme Court justices from impeachment. Here is the persecution playbook: passport confiscation, an electronic ankle monitor, censorship, house arrest, a sham trial and, finally, a politically motivated conviction.
I will not subject my family to this, and my country does not deserve to suffer this international humiliation again. Faced with the political weaponization of Brazil’s justice system, I brought my family to the United States, where we are safe. Once again, I thank President Trump and the American government for welcoming us and giving us the legal protections we no longer have in Brazil.
I want to be clear: I did not flee Brazil; I left for Brazil’s sake. I left a regime operating outside the rule of law so I could be the leader my people deserve. Silenced, imprisoned and censored, as my father is, I could not provide that leadership, and we would be left at the mercy of the institutional theater of an emasculated opposition controlled by a Supreme Court full of the regime’s lackeys.
🚨 NUEVA EVIDENCIA DEL FRAUDE DEL LADRÓN LULA
Un fiscal de mesa del PT tapó con un papel la cámara de seguridad apenas terminó el horario de votación.
Flavio Bolsonaro es el verdadero presidente de Brasil
URGENTE! FOI COMPROVADO QUE FLÁVIO GANHOU A ELEIÇÃO.
COM PROVAS
8 MILHÕES DE PESSOAS VOTARAM SEM NENHUMA IDENTIFICAÇÃO DEPOIS DAS URNAS FECHADAS E SEÇÕES FECHADAS!
“As premier, I will always refuse to see Quebec reduced to the role of spectator when it comes to representing and protecting the economic and political interests of Quebecers.”
J’ai pris note aujourd’hui de la nouvelle offre de Mark Carney d’obtenir le droit de m’assoir à sa table d’honneur à titre de spectateur, sans droit de parole ni droit de négocier au nom du Québec. Cette proposition revient à demander au Québec de rentrer dans les rangs, avec la vassalisation et l’invisibilisation du Québec que cela implique, en échange d’obtenir de meilleurs sièges de spectateurs pour regarder la partie. Comme premier ministre, je refuserai toujours que le Québec soit réduit au rôle de spectateur lorsqu’il s’agit de représenter et protéger les intérêts économiques et politiques des Québécois.
La réalité est que nous sommes devant une stratégie de marginalisation du Québec sur la scène internationale et de subordination des champs de compétence du Québec à la volonté du fédéral. Je note à cet effet que tous les chefs de partis de l’Assemblée nationale ont indiqué hier que s’ils étaient dans la position de premier ministre et devant un tel sommet sur le territoire du Québec, ils s’attendraient à prendre la parole et à participer à part entière. À Ottawa, le chef de l'opposition officielle ainsi que le chef du Bloc Québécois ont également appuyé notre demande.
J’ai donc pris la plume et j’ai écrit aux représentants de l’Union européenne pour leur rappeler que des ententes qui impliquent l’Europe et le Québec doivent forcément passer par le gouvernement du Québec, et à plus forte raison si le sommet se tient sur notre territoire. Le refus de nous donner la parole à titre d’hôte pour souhaiter la bienvenue à nos invités y est également mentionné.
Je lance donc l’invitation pour une discussion bilatérale dans un meilleur contexte qui permettrait au Québec de ne pas être exclu. À ce titre, j’enverrai le diplomate en chef du Québec, Pascal Paradis, pour ouvrir ces canaux de discussion pour la suite.
“They will do everything to censor this video where Lula confesses his crime, so everyone here already knows what to do. Hit it hard, patriots, let's save DEMOCRACY from this dictator! This thief confesses that he distributed 300 BILLION reais to steal the elections.
*
Irão fazer de tudo para censurar esse vídeo onde Lula confessa seu crime, assim todos aqui já sabem o que fazer. Senta o dedo patriotas, vamos salvar a DEMOCRACIA desse ditador! Esse ladrão confessa que distribuiu 300 BILHÕES de reais para roubar as eleições.
*Esse vídeo tem que ser visto no Brasil todo*.
“In the event these people don't still work for intelligence, they are doing their work of divide and conquer and distract for them. I for one am tired of having this dramaslop algorithmically thrown at me.”
Ditto.
Can we stop talking about "former" intelligence agents and the podcast drama between them and maybe focus on real issues that matter?
How about "independent" media covers the many disturbing developments courtesy of the government (and the broader global governance structure) is currently doing, which in many areas is drastically under-reported, and try and hold actual power to account instead of reality TV-style mudslinging. Isn't it supposed to be different than mainstream media?
In the event these people don't still work for intelligence, they are doing their work of divide and conquer and distract for them. I for one am tired of having this dramaslop algorithmically thrown at me.