cedric chaway

Oil & Gas Quant Trader + Lecturer @ Skema Business School
#Oil #Gas #Power #Renewables
Retweets are not endorsements
#AlgoTrading #CompFinance

[cedric chaway @cedric_chaway]

https://t.co/Zc42bH9Oq8

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

The question for oil investors used to be: at what price will OPEC cut? The real question is: at what price will China buy?

Beijing can disappear from the crude market by millions of barrels a day, then return when the price suits it. Its crude import demand is now highly elastic.

China is the new OPEC.

https://t.co/iO1DYakqKD

[cedric chaway @cedric_chaway]

@RadioGenoa It's about time!

[Sarah Knafo @knafo_sarah]

Emmanuel Macron a réussi un exploit inédit : réunir en un seul pays les défauts de tous les autres.

Les libertés de Pékin.
L’insécurité du Mexique.
Les prix de New York.
Les salaires de Bucarest.

Le pire de partout, « en même temps ».

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Another energy deception by a wind & solar lobbyist, likely taxpayer funded.

Obviously, China’s coal share in the grid is falling due to steady additions of hydro & nuclear generation (wind remains a hobby).

But that’s irrelevant.

What matters for emissions is that China’s coal generation just hit a new record at 5,900TWh in 2025. At 38% efficiency, that’s 15,500TWh of coal burned just for electricity.

Add coking coal burn of 7,000 TWh (steel), 2,000 TWh (cement) and some Coal-to-chemicals + households to get to China’s total primary energy use of coal of 26,245TWh in 2024, another all-time-high.

Germany? 228TWh in 2024.

China thus burns 115x more coal (!!!) than Germany and the ratio is exploding as is the absolute number.

Bonus: The CCP approved another 292GW of coal-powered capacity to be installed bw 2026-2028. Germany has 32GW left installed.

Message: the CCP wants cheap electricity, among others, to dominate industrial goods globally.

The chap below? Wants a Marxist wind & solar system to personally benefit from it. Let’s stop the lies and deceptions.

[cedric chaway @cedric_chaway]

@MyLordBebo No worries ... Belgium has sent one military liaison officer to replace them lol

[Dr. Eli David @DrEliDavid]

Thank you Germany 🇩🇪 and UK 🇬🇧 for heroically sacrificing your economy to save the planet 💪
_

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Post-2022 Russian gas crisis, the classic commodity capex boom-bust cycle is in full swing. In two years, Europe will be flooded with LNG.

Some relief ahead for EU consumers—except where wind & solar tariffs keep electricity bills inflated.

[Gad Saad @GadSaad]

Suicidal Empathy.

[Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet]

Can someone please explain how deindustrialization of the UK and Germany will save the planet?

I really struggle to understand why they sacrifice their industries and jobs only to outsource production to China which causes more global emissions. Does it make any sense to you?

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

The greatest geopolitical miscalculation of our age: believing that transferring industrial know-how to a one-party state would make it a stakeholder in the free world. Jesus…

In Berlin it was called Wandel durch Handel — change through trade. I almost throw up writing it. What a world-class delusion that was. And not just Merkel’s. Does @Siemens_Energy still try to teach the Chinese how to manufacture gas turbines?

Give Me A Break.

Decades later, that same Wandel turns on us. The supply chains we built are now instruments of pressure for the CCP. Historians will call it the betrayal of the century; realists will call it self-inflicted through greed and short-termism.

For 30 years we Europeans, Americans, Canadians, Japanese, Koreans, and Australians offshored knowledge, refining, training, and IP to the CCP, thinking integration would bring openness and fair trade. @BillClinton and the WTO, anybody? What on rare earth were they thinking?

We — the collective West (in the political, not geographical, sense) — literally taught them everything. Now comrade Xi uses that mastery to choke our supply chains, forcing us to absorb his overcapacity and, effectively, his unemployment.

Who could have thought? As historian Stephen Kotkin likes to say: you can’t be half-communist. Exactly.

The price explosion of germanium below is just one symbol of the lesson ahead.

The blue and red lines show % appreciation for germanium delivered to Europe & the US versus the domestic Chinese price. A kilo now trades at USD 623 (¥4672) for Europe — about twice what Chinese manufacturers pay.

In Europe and the US we pay double for what we taught China to refine and scale for thirty years — the price of assuming Marxism could play by free-market rules.

Among other uses, germanium powers high-end optics such as the Leopard 2 thermal imaging system (Wärmebildgerät, WBG). Not sure if the M1 Abrams uses it too; I never liked that tank. A Ford with a turbine — silly.

Anyway, this isn’t academic. The element — Germanium — is a semiconductor, a kind of metallic chameleon used across high-tech equipment. Not easy to engineer around it. Has a cool name, too.

So China’s export leverage is strategic and real. Meanwhile, the 100 million members of the CCP are, by definition, communists. And for any communist regime, the free world is the enemy. Simple as that.

To a communist, nothing is more dangerous than a free-thinking teenager. One good Netflix series, one spark of criticism, and the streets might fill with people wanting change. Better create an enemy abroad before that happens — that’s the stage of the movie we’re in now.

Enough appeasement. FAFO.

@POTUS @vonderleyen @_FriedrichMerz @Keir_Starmer @EmmanuelMacron @GiorgiaMeloni @alexstubb @SwissGov @nfergus

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

FR
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[Eva Vlaardingerbroek @EvaVlaar]

Every non-Western immigrant that enters The Netherlands puts an average strain of €600.000 on the Dutch national treasury.

Yet many people still believe the diabolical lie that immigration is necessary to solve the aging population issue. The opposite is true.

[iamyesyouareno @iamyesyouareno]

This is what defending a border looks like. Poland knows how. Other European countries should take notes.

[NXT EU @NXT4EU]

Europe's battery manufacturing is starting to take shape.

This will make us independent of countries such as China and the US.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

The Gold-to-Oil ratio is flashing a warning: falling oil prices indicate weak confidence in the global economy, while rising #gold prices reflect growing fear and risk aversion.

[NXT EU @NXT4EU]

Europe is building a sun on earth 🇪🇺

We set a new world record for Fusion

[Colossal Biosciences® @colossal]

Meet Romulus, the world's first de-extinct animal brought back from extinction using DNA from 72,000-year-old fossils.

Follow to watch this dire wolf grow and to discover the next species we're working to bring back.

[Energy-Storage.news @energystoragenw]

Axpo, energieUri and Fluence building 58.6MW of Swiss BESS https://t.co/VfVLBTV97p #energystorage

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Gold held in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumps from record to record (ridiculous levels), a sign of resilient demand for gold investments in China.

More than 53 tonnes of gold bars have been registered for delivery against futures contracts (held on warrant).

The build-up reflects a surge in arbitrage activity triggered by heavy demand for futures, which are trading at a large premium to the physical metal.

Traders take advantage of the price gap, buying cheaper gold on the spot market and delivering it to the exchange’s warehouse. From there, it can be used to offset sales of futures, allowing them to close an arbitrage position at a profit.

At least that is what I think it is…! Never 💯 sure with the Chinese blackbox.

@JanGold_