Celine Bteish

Int. Political Economy & Macro

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This oil deal with Venezuela is absolutely insane.

President Trump just announced that the US has reached a deal to secure "majority control" of over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves.

Furthermore, the US currently has ~46 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves.

Combined with the 65 billion barrels covered by this agreement, the US would have domestic reserves plus control over ~111 billion barrels of oil.

To put this into perspective, the entire world has roughly 1.57 TRILLION barrels of proven crude oil reserves.

In other words, the US is set to control ~7.1% of all proven oil reserves in the world under this new agreement with Venezuela.

At ~111 billion barrels, the US would be almost exactly in-line with the United Arab Emirates, which has 113 billion barrels of proven crude reserves, and it would exceed Kuwait's 102 billion barrels.

Assuming the agreement is structured as outlined in President Trump’s announcement, the implications for global energy markets will be enormous.

We will publish more in-depth analysis soon.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141 A BARREL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008

[Jacopo Scita @jacoposcita]

Reuters is doing a pretty astonishing work covering the Iran War - these graphics are sensational!
https://t.co/j8qGtgHZJt

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

🇫🇷 France has a new Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu.

His geopolitical playbook is clear:
– Double down on defense & support for 🇺🇦 Ukraine
– Push EU sovereignty & Franco-German defense cooperation
– Recast France’s Africa strategy beyond troops
– Invest big in AI & tech leadership
– Balance close U.S. ties with European autonomy

Paris wants to be Europe’s power broker in a geopolitically bifurcated world.

[Adam James Pollock @AdamPollock]

Normalise sitting outside the café all day and not really doing anything

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

How it started vs How it‘s going

[Agathe Demarais @AgatheDemarais]

🇫🇷🗳️ - Yield on French debt is now similar to that on Portugal’s as coming elections worry investors
• Markets have priced in high probability of far right-led RN government (Le Pen/Bardella)
• Front de Gauche victory would spook markets even more, further fuelling volatility

[Celine Bteish @celinebteish]

On the key players and forces shaping the #EU's future political scene - a lot of takeaways, the next few weeks and months will be watched very closely #ElectionsEuropéennes2024
@SAISHopkins

[Matthias Matthijs @m2matthijs]

My take on #EuropeanParliamentElections for @ForeignAffairs:

https://t.co/VWbBU20wVl @CFR_org @SAISHopkins @JohnsHopkins

[Celine Bteish @celinebteish]

- effortless is a myth
- it’s only a point
- life is bigger than the court

Some wise words we can all remind ourselves of

[Bastien Fachan @BastienFachan]

Roger Federer’s Commencement Address at Dartmouth yesterday might be the best speech he’s ever given.

Amazingly articulate, funny, full of wisdom. Made me laugh and tear up. I’m so very proud to have had him as my idol for the past two decades.

If you have 25 minutes to spare…

[Gideon Rachman @gideonrachman]

Excellent by ⁦@adam_tooze⁩ on how wars in Ukraine, Middle East and potential conflict with China all expose failed bets by the west that increased commerce would decrease conflict. Sometimes economic growth generates the means to make war… https://t.co/lhompAl2RK

[Agathe Demarais @AgatheDemarais]

Africa will be demographic (and economic) powerhouse of next century
• Nigeria, Egypt, Tanzania, Ethiopia, DRC will account for over half of global population growth by 2050
• Africa will account for 38% of global population by 2100, with - crucially - young population

[IMF Middle East & North Africa @IMFinMENA]

A temporary boost in foreign exchange inflows from seasonal tourism has created a false sense of recovery but cannot fix Lebanon's current account deficit and financing gaps.

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

The summer tourism boom is a symptom of Lebanon's version of Dutch disease. Call it the Phoenician problem: just like before the crisis, diaspora money provides a short-term sugar rush but ultimately just reinforces a broken economic model. https://t.co/6mM1WYLlOJ

[Dalal Mawadدلال معوض @dalalmawad]

In Lebanon, where domestic violence and rape go unpunished, where women are subjugated to unfair laws,& all sorts of criminals roam freely ; a bunch of men want to ban Barbie the movie ( which they have not watched ) because they believe it goes against social &religious morals

[Financial Times @FinancialTimes]

The world is facing a new era of ‘global boiling’ in the hottest July ever, scientists forecast https://t.co/LLfqWtwR15

[Jonathan Ferro @FerroTV]

The year so far

January: soft landing!
February: no landing!
March: hard landing!
April: credit crunch surely?
May: it’s just mega cap tech
June: it’s a bull market!!!!

[Celine Bteish @celinebteish]

Very grateful to have contributed to this work!
Paper is finally published: https://t.co/qDOwXzRY4w

[IMF Africa @IMFAfrica]

STARTING NOW:
IMF Chief @KGeorgieva is joined by high-level officials for a discussion about how regional trade integration can unlock Africa’s vast potential in a rapidly changing world.

Watch here:
https://t.co/JCkRNClQ3W

[IMF Africa @IMFAfrica]

Regional trade integration can unlock Africa’s vast potential in a rapidly changing world. The IMF’s Managing Director @KGeorgieva will be in Nairobi to launch a paper exploring just how this potential can be realized.

Register to attend the event: https://t.co/Oz9nF6suis

[Celine Bteish @celinebteish]

this.. #Lagarde #markets #ECB
https://t.co/A8M6szJkh9

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

That ChatGPT passes exams is much more a reflection on exams than information about ChatGPT.

#WittgensteinsRuler