시나리오 작가 세토

서부전선이상무. 누가 미래를 안다고 떠들면 믿지마라. 쏘는 놈 말고는 아무도 모른다. 총알 덜맞고 살아서 전투장 빠져나가는 걸 목표로 하라.

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

There are 3.2 million people in Mongolia and roughly the same number of horses.

«A Mongol without a horse is like a bird without wings».

Even at a rave party.

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@jedimarkus77 Is that only one 🤔

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

#BOJ #Yen 유가 시장처럼
베센트 맘대로 안되나봐

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🤯The Bank of Japan is adding further pressure to the domestic bond market:

The BoJ's total assets on its balance sheet are down to 644 trillion Yen, the lowest level since May 2020.

From the 2024 peak, assets have declined -121 trillion Yen, or -16%.

BoJ holdings of Japanese Government Bonds alone have dropped -82 trillion Yen, to 519.4 trillion Yen, the lowest since December 2021.

As a % of Japanese GDP, total assets on the BoJ balance sheet are down to 96%, the lowest since 2018.

By comparison, the 2021 peak was ~130%.

As the BoJ reduces its JGB purchases and allows more bonds to mature, private investors need to absorb a larger share of the government bond supply.

If demand does not fully keep pace, bond prices face downward pressure, pushing yields higher.

How much more pressure can Japan’s bond market absorb?

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@FirstSquawk Stop trying to drag South Korea into war, Ukraine. After the Korean War, we built this country from the ashes with blood, sweat, and tears. The fact that Ukraine doesn't even show gratitude for our humanitarian support is utterly ridiculous.

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

surprised that investors who witnessed the #oil market's behavior during the Iran war are still obsessed with the narrative around #CPI and #NFP. Anyone taking those numbers at face value maybe be as naive as those who believe the US defeated Iran. More important is #CDS #US10Y

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

CDS volumes percolating…

If we start to see the beneficiaries of all this debt fueled CapEx (semis) start to play “catch up” to the Hyperscalers, that would be cause for concern.

Source: Goldman Sachs

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

"Gold has re-emerged as a cornerstone of wealth management" >>

Nomura Starts Singapore Physical Gold Trading for Rich Clients

Nomura Holdings Inc.’s international wealth management unit is establishing a physical gold trading and custody service that’s domiciled in Singapore for its rich clients, a move that’ll bolster the city-state’s bullion hub ambitions.

The trading and custody service will be conducted entirely within Singapore with customers gaining access to large gold bars and kilobars, Nomura said in a statement on Wednesday. The gold bars, approximately 400 troy ounces, are representative of the global benchmark for international trade settlement, and kilobars are the preferred specification across Asian markets, according to Japan’s biggest brokerage.

“Gold has re-emerged as a cornerstone of wealth management” Akshay Prasad, head of investment products and advisory solutions at Nomura International Wealth Management, said in the statement. (Bloomberg)

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@cryptorover Would you release an estimate that tanks the stock market if you were in their shoes?

Lower than expected is already priced in. You act like you're new to this. Everyone already figured it out. #CPI

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@hallo23x23 구글은 세상을 증류하고
증국은 미국을 증류하고
나머진 모두 증류당하는 중이죠
알게모르게

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@dons_korea 현재 발행하려는 채권 규모들을 보면 미국 국채 금리 5%는 너무 낮은 것 아닌가 싶기도 합니다. 메모리가 그렇게 많이 만들어도 부족하니 10배 급등하듯이. 닝겐들의 돈이 무한정이 아니라면 일본 유럽 영국 ... 미국정부 테슬라 빅테크 ... 등등

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@Mr_Derivatives The top 10 companies drive all the earnings growth, while the remaining 490 are virtually flat. Even with grocery prices soaring over 35%, these 490 companies haven't seen any nominal net income growth from 2022— purely multiple expansion. Buy only Top 10. Or AI bubbles

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@yang_youngbin 해결 불가능한 거 아닌가요. 베센트가 엔화까지 개입하고, 중국이 국채를 매도하지 않고 보유량만 줄이면서 까지 조심하는데도 이렇게 금리가 오르는 거 보면. 일본 사나에 노믹스도 해외투자보다 일본내 투자를 강행하겠다는데

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@zsdcxa13 한국이 광주에만 1000조 투자한다고 하는데 엔비디아 같은 거물이 5천억달러면 좀 작지 않나여

미국적 스케일이며 5조달러는 해야지 한국 스케일보다 작다니 그것도 월가 합쳐서 그 정도라니

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@blazingbees 씁슬하네. 주주도 못받는 권리를. 타 사업부까지 요구하고.

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

연말인가 9월말인가

[GONOGO @GONOGO_Korea]

WSJ: PRIVATE CREDIT IS SHOWING INCREASING SIGNS OF STRESS

DEFAULT RATES ARE HITTING RECENT HIGHS

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

오디세이는 서울에서 제주까지 왕복하는 정도인 약 1,050km의 거리를, 10년 동안 동남아시아 바다까지 떠돌다가 겨우 고향에 도착한 길치의 이야기라고 비유할 수 있습니다. ㅡ 재밌네

[골방문명 @evkushutepe]

정답! 표해시말!!

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@galsxst 여성용으로 적당한 크기. 화면 크게는 보고 싶은데 너무 크면 핸들링 어려웠고

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

22년 영국 연금보험
23년 미국 지방은행

현재 일본 생보사 사태와 이유가 다른 것 같은데 🤔

[jeroen blokland @jsblokland]

Investors always believe this time is different.

The four biggest Japanese insurers are now sitting on paper losses of ¥15 trillion on their Japanese government bond portfolios. That's nearly $100 billion.

In addition, Japan's interest expenses will surge from roughly 2% to 10% of GDP if bond yields remain where they are today.

We have seen this movie before.

In 2022, the UK pension and insurance sector nearly collapsed after a massive spike in bond yields triggered by unfunded tax cuts, forcing the Bank of England to intervene and buy bonds on a massive scale.

In 2023, several U.S. regional banks collapsed as supposedly harmless paper losses on bonds proved very capable of causing actual defaults, forcing the FDIC to step in and protect depositors.

Both events happened less than five years ago. Spiking bond yields were at the heart of both crises.

Japan simply cannot survive with bond yields at 3% or higher without serious consequences for its financial system and government finances.

This time is NOT different.

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

아니 그 🤦 비싼 램을 1G 낭비하다니 몹쓸 #윈도우11

[GeekNews @GeekNewsHada]

Windows 11 내장 날씨 앱, RAM 1GB 이상 낭비

- Windows 11의 Weather 앱은 일기예보만 표시해도 RAM을 1GB 넘게 사용하며, 기본 조작 중에는 최대 1․5~1․6GB까지 늘어남
- 완전한 네이티브 앱이 아닌 WebView2 기반 MSN Weather 웹 앱으로, 여러 Chromium 하위 프로세스…
https://t.co/wO1v4r6j0g

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@charliebilello People shouldn't care whether they maintain it or not; instead, they should be asking why companies that supposedly make so much money have such pathetic dividend yields.

[시나리오 작가 세토 @cetopariya]

@blazingbees 대부분 전세금

30억 아파트 20억에 전세 주는 이유도 20억 현금흐름 마련하기 위해서고, 그걸로 위험자산에 투자하는 사람들 상당히 많습니다