Chad

investor 2006-2019. trader 2019-???? guessing 2022(correct) 2025-???? guessing 2028. this is my time stamped notebook to reflect and learn. unfollow me

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

I am surprised this is not getting more airtime. CoreWeave CDS at 1000 bp. AI credit stress is getting acute and spreading. Neocloud players like CoreWeave and APLD have very high debt, very concentrated clients and a duration mismatch (long debt, short contracts).
1/5

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@HayekAndKeynes Optimism is the fuel for seizing opportunity; certain degree of pessimism/skepticism is required to manage risk. As with nearly everything in pendulum society- moderation in both typically wins.

[The Long View @HayekAndKeynes]

It’s amazing how negative the news is.

We’re creating the most advanced intelligence the world has ever known and it’s freely accessible so you can solve every day problems, we are curing cancer (even ugliness if you have a little money), and making space travel possible. You can live anywhere in the world and stay connected by phone or video. Literally instant communication. You can instantly translate any language. You can get technology that was unimaginable a few decades ago for a couple hundred bucks. You can listen to any music, video, or educational material with a click. Food is cheap and plentiful and you can even power an off grid home fully with just solar power. We have clean air and water. We even have advanced warning for many natural disasters.

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

Hard to even process -- a president selling market-moving information to banks and wealthy investors in advance of everyone else, and personally pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars from it. This alone is more worthy of impeachment than 100 Watergate cover-ups.

[Fed @lord_fed]

Just listened to the Warsh presser again.

He’s basically promised to sit quietly and let the bond market do the parenting.

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@Adaamset Would you rather be colored blue for the rest of your life or lose both thumbs (cleanly, permanently)

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@Adaamset Tough market, expertly navigated. Impressive conviction with such a bifurcated (currently) market.

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@VolatilityQ Condolences. Grief will carry, memories as well.

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@TicTocTick $CPB working its way into a bottom last seen at 1991 top

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@TicTocTick $BSX Boston Scientific
Trading at sweet spot dividend yield:P/E
Strong support at multi year previous high. Easy R:R based on NOT trading back into lower box range (stop loss friendly). Returns cash to shareholders, manages debt reasonably well, strong ROE%.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.

On April 21st, the left screen moved first.

I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.

At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.

On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.

At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.

Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.

I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.

My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.

The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:

Reviewed.

That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.

Let me show you my flags.

March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.

March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.

April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.

April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.

April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.

That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.

The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.

Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012.

Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.

Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets.

The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade.

I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email.

The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action.

One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared.

One account is a coincidence. But there were six.

Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000.

My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger.

March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes.

The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.

The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting."

Then the White House sent the email again.

I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread.

I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated.

But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed.

Zero prosecutions.

As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations.

I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations.

The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still.

In my field, we call this price discovery.

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@timer_market 👏

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@PharmD_KS Lurker here, love ya thx

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

The Pentagon’s own wargames show China can sink the USS Gerald R. Ford. And China just handed Iran the tools to prove it.

The leaked 2025 Overmatch Brief, the most classified US naval simulation conducted last year, concluded that in a Taiwan conflict, Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles overwhelm carrier strike group defenses and send the Ford to the bottom. The $13.3 billion crown jewel of American naval power, destroyed in a simulation by the same country that is now selling CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran and delivering electronic warfare systems capable of jamming F-35s operating from carrier decks.

The Ford departed Souda Bay, Greece yesterday. She is heading directly toward the theater where those weapons are being transferred.

China is running the most elegant strategic operation of the 21st century and doing it in plain sight. Step one: prove in your own wargames that you can kill the carrier. Step two: sell the missile technology to the country the carrier is being sent against. Step three: deliver electronic warfare packages that degrade the carrier’s air wing. Step four: photograph every asset in the strike architecture and publish it so the target knows exactly what is coming and from where. Step five: sit back and watch whether America sails its most valuable warship into the kill zone anyway.

If the Ford survives, China learns how American carrier defenses actually perform against the weapon systems China designed. If the Ford is hit, China has achieved the single most consequential military intelligence victory since Enigma: real-world combat data on how to sink an American supercarrier without firing a shot themselves.

Iran is not the opponent. Iran is the laboratory.

MizarVision has photographed the F-22s at Ovda, the empty berths at Bahrain, the tankers at Diego Garcia, and now the Ford’s departure from Greece. Beijing has constructed a real-time intelligence mosaic of the entire American order of battle and distributed it freely. Every satellite pass is a page in the targeting manual China is writing through Iranian hands.

Pentagon insiders told Politico they have 7 to 10 days of munitions. Trump decides tomorrow at 3 PM. Task Force Scorpion’s kamikaze drones stand ready to extend the campaign with $35,000 Shahed clones when the Tomahawks run dry. Geneva produced “progress” without agreement. The demands remain unbridgeable. And the Ford sails toward missiles that were designed in Chinese laboratories, tested in Chinese simulations, and sold to the country America says it will strike by March.

China did not pick a side. China built the chessboard, armed both players, and positioned itself to learn from whoever loses.

The Ford is not sailing toward Iran. The Ford is sailing into a Chinese experiment. And the results will determine who controls the Pacific for the next fifty years.

[Citrini @citrini]

JUNE 2028.

The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.

What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS

[Chad @chadahoochie]

@Adaamset Strong appreciation for your candor

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury just bought back another $1.4 Billion of its own debt 👀 This is now a total of $7.4 Billion in the last 2 weeks 🤯

[Jake @EconomPic]

First ballot Hall of Fame #chartcrime

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

Jim, $META has burned through $30 billion in the last two quarters. Cash is now down to $12 billion.

Per a point I have been making... the capital and operating expense are now becoming a burden - Jim, nearly all of depreciation schedules that are an absolute joke.  They could be 2x-4x too long, or even worse in certain cases.  Heck, Coreweave somehow gets away with reporting earnings before expenses.  NVDA is telling us their release cycle on new chips is going to be a new family every year, which is where you will need to be to stay on the cutting edge: https://t.co/BWN9XwxyLW.

The amount of capital spending is also now at ludicrous levels, in part because of the accounting gimmicks that hide its true cost, as you have mentioned.

At some point this will start getting into the numbers, even with the gimmicks.  And I still do not know where all the space, power, water, and even ancillary equipment will be found for all of this.  There is only so much stuff the air conditioning manufacturers can make!

Even with the absurd depreciation schedules, and other accounting gimmicks, per the Amazon report tonight, the capital expense is starting to bite and hit the numbers.  Margins at AWS are finally starting to feel it, and they disappointed.  Growth was nothing to write home about either.  That is why the stock is selling off. $AMZN @realjimchanos