@willahmed Hey Will! Previously churned customer wanting to restart membership, manage payment info.. and buy newest 5.0 model band. Lot of UX/UI friction to restart. If I click Shop 4.0 page is blank. No idea where to go here and give @WHOOP $250+
@E_Dilla Lot of moving parts now:
1. Can move Travon for 1+.
2. Where does Hendrickson go? Baltimore?
3. Wouldn't rule out Eagles/Jags decisions having an effect.
Recently spent time updating an older analysis on where AI demand is actually going and came away still thinking we’re massively short compute (~8–50x short) on consumer inference alone. Big range (future is humbling), but even the low end makes the point.
I dropped a link to the fuller write-up for anyone inclined over a slow week. It also hits a few popular debates / my steelman AI bear case. Some of this may be optimistic (or wrong). I’m a dreamer, so be kind :)
Consumer is easiest to parameterize. If we’re massively short just on that, you start to understand why the biggest players are building so aggressively.
Framework: tokens are the kWh of knowledge work and demand scales as price drops, leading to new workloads and moving us from 100-token prompts to agentic loops + multimodal + “robotic episodes” that can consume orders of magnitude more tokens.
Supply: we’ve installed mid-teens GW of frontier compute using Jensen’s rule of thumb. Other accounts suggest it may already be closer to the mid-20s GW. Either way, it sounds huge until you realize cluster-level effective performance is ~5–10% of chip specs once you net out site power overhead, MFU, and fleet mix.
Steelman bear: AI creates massive shadow output gap, but much of it is competed away or shows up as deflation/consumer surplus rather than immediate EPS gains.
More detail in the write-up: https://t.co/9Lph4Nd6aI
Appendix (topics covered):
• TPU vs GPU
• China/Huawei
• Robotics + world models
$nvda $orcl $crwv $nbis