Jimmy Mack

I love my family, friends, my home town of Portland, the Portland Timbers, love to brew beer and listen to all kinds of music. Always learning and listening

[kwade @KwadeSays]

5 minutes of research answers each of these with sources

1) Trump cut $73 million in education funding headed toward Oregon

2) Trump cut $40 million in housing services headed to Oregon through HUD

3) Oregonians have paid an extra estimated $3 BILLION in trump related tariffs

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@jardinquecanta @pdxpragmatist So not Missouri? My bad

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@jardinquecanta @pdxpragmatist You don’t even live in Oregon

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@skywaker9 Thanks!!

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@RonWyden yes!!

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@ANNELAMOTT You are the best!! Wife and I are cackling

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@kiesha9i Vivian and June

[skywaker9 @skywaker9]

My usual election day reminders:

1. Early exit polls are complete garbage.

2. Reports of in-person voting trends are misleading.

3. Don't doom and gloom if Florida goes badly...again.

4. On the plus side, don't get too excited when Dems easily take the Georgia and North Carolina Senate races.

5. If the Dems are having a great night, watch for the gerrymanders in Texas (and to a lesser extent Florida, Alabama and Tennessee) to become so-called dummymanders and backfire on Republicans.

6. If Talarico wins, feel free to sing "deep in the heart of Texas" at the top of your lungs.

7. Hydrate and eat, don't hit the booze too early. Its going to be a long night so pace yourself.

[skywaker9 @skywaker9]

A quick primer on how Oregon counts results

1. We are, of course, the original vote by mail state, so like others of our ilk, Oregon releases a huge batch right at 8 pm and then we wait. That first drop will be 60+% of the final vote.
2. However, and this is where it gets tricky, it won't be evenly distributed. Smaller Republican counties are likely to finish counting relatively quickly while the bigger Dem ones take longer. This is essentially just a numbers game because there are simply tens of thousands more votes to count in Portland and Eugene than Burns and Ontario.
3. As a result, if Republicans take a small early lead it will easily be erased by Portland area Dem votes. If Dems are leading the first drop statewide it is essentially over.
4. Unlike Washington and California, who release their first drop and basically peace out for 24 hours, Oregon keeps counting and releasing updated results overnight (except for ranked choice voting (rcv) races). In all but the closest races, we usually know the outcome by mid-day Wednesday.
5. As a general rule, votes cast closer to election day tend to be more Dem than the state as a whole and favor more progressive local candidates. Just to give one example, two years ago it looked like Republicans had held the Woodburn state House seat. Only to lose it when later votes broke heavily Dem.
6. For Portland area rcv races, Multnomah County will release one update a day. Each of these updates will run the results through the rcv system as they have them at the time. Unless it is decisive, please don't draw any conclusions until at least the second rcv update on Wednesday night.

Okay so what are some key counties to watch.

Multnomah. Home to Portland, this is the largest and bluest county in the state. Kotek won it by over 50% four years ago, netting 193k votes. A similar margin here is expected.

Washington. Oregon’s second largest county is a classic above average income well educated suburban county that has gone from highly competitive to Dem stronghold. Kotek won it by just under 20% four years ago, netting just under 50k votes. I wouldn't be surprised to see this margin grow.

Lane. Home to Eugene, this is the largest blue county outside of the Portland metro. Kotek only won it by 13% last time (just under 24k votes) and you would hope Dems do better here in 2026.

Clackamas. The third (and least blue) of the Portland metro counties. No Democrat has won it in a gov race since 1998 although it is blue in presidential years. Any hope Drazan has relies on a decisive win here so a Dem win by any margin is game over.

Deschutes. This central Oregon county, home to some of the most beautiful scenery in the entire country, has gone from Republican stronghold to deeply blue seemingly overnight (thanks to net migration from blue areas, mostly California). As with Clackamas, this is blue in presidential years but no Dem has won it in a gov election since 1998. I would honestly expect Kotek to win it this year.

It will hopefully be another blue and not particularly stressful night for Oregon Dems.

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@skywaker9 I agree with the instinct

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@NicolaMac ❤️

[Rep. Travis E. Nelson 🩺 @IamTravisNelson]

Here’s what the media isn’t telling you about the governor’s race…

If elected, Christine Drazan will get to appoint judges to the Supreme Court and the Circut Courts!

That would mean a rightward shift in the judicial branch.

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

It never gets old beating the Lakers #RipCity

[Winter @MsWinterrrr]

Because of Tina Kotek I have healthcare.

That's my why. My North Star.

The reason why I have a bed at a mental health facility is because of the work she has done to make sure beds are available.

More is to be done. However Republicans will worsen everything.

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@skywaker9 @Pgallagher503 Yup

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@DesertCorpsPTFC Kids got a solid upside. Great quick decision maker

[The Kiffness @TheKiffness]

Ok, I guess now is a good time to announce my return to X... Burp! Enjoy.

[Jimmy Mack @chaibaba]

@skywaker9 Yeah, that participatory budget thing seems really odd