Champton

here for oandg and entertainment

[Champton @champt1001]

@aj_geo_analysis @James86323825 Thank you AJ. Reading list now augmented!

[Champton @champt1001]

@aj_geo_analysis @James86323825 If the latter, recommendations?

[Champton @champt1001]

@aj_geo_analysis @James86323825 Thank you AJ. Is this your synthesis of Rickards and Cooke, or are there sources that explore this thesis at greater length?

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

“If the Strait of Hormuz opens after April, we cannot provide an accurate oil price forecast. We will have crossed too deep into the Rubicon. This will have been the largest oil supply outage in the history of the oil market by a magnitude of 4x. Fundamental market theories will no longer apply here because there’s no price for outright shortages. When a market runs out of fuel, it just runs out.”

[Barack Obama @BarackObama]

Hope isn’t blind optimism — it arises in the face of uncertainty. If you look at our history, we’ve gone through some rough patches. But we tend to come out on the other side of them stronger than before.

[Champton @champt1001]

@DrJStrategy Thank you. Could you provide a source supporting the existence of an Iranian regime "camp that recognises a deal with the outside world as the only path to survival"?

[本杰明乌萨奇 @Corsica267]

时不时有人会问我油价的事情。原油不是我的专长，但是我可以拿我的本行化肥举个例子。做多Supply Shock其实是三个不同阶段。

今年从一月末就有要对伊朗动手的信号了。这个时候如果去做原油/化肥，属于提前埋伏，做预期。真的打了就涨，打不了就不涨，属于个人倾向和分析能力的事情，就不多说了。这个是做事件，左侧交易。

但是除了本质的做多事件以外，还分“做多风险溢价”、“做多价格中枢”和“做多边际影响”三种。

做多风险溢价比较好举例子。比如说现在，伊朗封锁海峡，美国也封锁海峡，船就是出不来，没有油就是没有油，海峡是死的。但是每次有利好利空消息出来依旧有涨跌，尽管就算海峡真的开发了，供给恢复也需要几个月；或者说海峡继续关闭对于原油运输量不存在新的减少，但是还是会跌。这种时候的价格变动属于纯粹的风险溢价变化，不属于基本面。所以这种时候要想明白，买卖的是波动。麻烦之处在于风险溢价一旦定价完成之后，如果没有更坏的消息，恐慌是要回吐的。快进快出。

做多价格中枢，是指价格中枢必然上移。要有耐心。有人这次看化肥涨了，就想着去做多食品企业或者农产品企业，不是这么回事。食品价格上涨容易压缩食品企业利润，反而跌。另一头，农民也不是傻的。春耕时间段的化肥是不是提前准备好了、化肥价格上涨是否应对增量需求，农民是不是少种一点玉米多种一点大豆。市场会自行进行调节，在短期内缩减一部分需求，转移一部分渠道，寻找一些替代品，比如从别的国家买原油、使用别的能源或者运输路径，或者减少生产支出。就算是以中期来看，价格上涨依旧不是线性的。如果有信念，那就时间换空间，等待新的价格均衡。

最后一条是做多边际，去吃那个被作为新供应商的产业或者国家。但这个东西的前提是要经过了供需再平衡之后，价格开始钝化了，才去有做的意义。不然就一直等。

这四个阶段策略基本是按照时间分的。事件发生前，事件刚发生，事件发酵，事件结束。预期，恐慌，重构。搞清楚自己做的是哪一段。

[Champton @champt1001]

InfoWars relaunches, under the nurturing media umbrella of Global Tetrahedon https://t.co/lltRs82fBE

[Champton @champt1001]

@INArteCarloDoss Ok, 🤣🤣 til I 😭

[Champton @champt1001]

@TheStingisBack The whole thing with T&C is that it cranks up the gayness of buddy flicks to "overt." I mean....right?

[Champton @champt1001]

@TheStingisBack It made the dilemma for Woody Harrelson's character even more acute though, didn't it?

[Champton @champt1001]

@COLRICHARDKEMP The phrase "Israel's defensive assault on Iran" is also a defensive assault on logic!

[Champton @champt1001]

@JenniferJJacobs "Next two largest oil economies"? Does Trump see the United States as a petrostate?

[Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex]

Hundreds of millions of people throughout the world are immersed in extreme poverty. Yet, disproportionate wealth remains in the hands of a few. It is an unjust scenario, in the face of which we cannot fail to question ourselves and commit to change things. There is no lack of resources at the root of disparities, but the need to address solvable problems related to a more equitable distribution of wealth, to be achieved with moral sense and honesty.

[Ed Finley–Richardson @ed_fin]

@HFI_Research @citrini 1) There is a nuance here: We could see a toll going forward... or not. It may be that some ships paid, or not.

What is incorrect is the *assumption* that most ships have paid, or are willing to pay, or ‘reports’ by journalists of payments reflect reality.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Man, even if you agree to a ceasefire for 2 weeks and the Strait of Hormuz is open for 2 weeks, that drains the 180 million bbls of floating storage, but very few tankers will go into the Strait during that time.

The production shut-in continues.

[Champton @champt1001]

@DrJStrategy Whatever reputation Trump had as a grand strategist is shot to shit. Or credible negiotiator. But is there a possible future where a new administration, and a newly limited executive, renews sealane guarantees? What would be the terms?

[Champton @champt1001]

@mz_definitely @AndreasSteno Trump has started signing off with the English equivalent of "Allahu Akbar"? That is a bit disturbing isn't it?

[Champton @champt1001]

@kingtutcap Hitting 8000 targets certainly has not worked. Maybe 9000 is the magic number?

[Champton @champt1001]

@Rory_Johnston If it works for Iran it works for Ukraine. We have a new global economy, with no rules and no one to enforce them anyway. if you can control access to a commodity reach out and grab your toll!